We’re approaching the 2024 season. Every year, a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise for fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will end up being this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2024 sleeper candidates at each of the key fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully, these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
So far this off-season, I’ve looked at quarterbacks and running backs who could make an impact. Now, it’s time to look at perhaps the deepest and most impactful position—wide receiver. It’s common for leagues to start three receivers in addition to one or two as flex plays. That means you could play four or five receivers a week, needing more than that on the roster to compete.
That makes finding receivers you can use to compete critical. The next group of players I look at won’t be top-tier, but given the importance of receivers, finding guys that you can reliably flex in the WR45-75 range is key. That’s where I aim with these suggestions; guys you can pick up at a discount that can compete.
The first of those is a guy who could end up leading his team—Curtis Samuel. The Bills are re-making their receiver room this year, letting their top two guys go this off-season. Samuel is an under-the-radar selection that could make a big difference. Let’s weigh the evidence.
The Case for Curtis Samuel
Samuel has been a reliable player for years. In fact, he’s probably better than you remember. In 2019 with Carolina, he saw 105 targets and finished as WR36. In 2020, he was even better. He saw 97 targets and finished as WR24, one spot higher than teammate D.J. Moore.
Samuel moved on from Carolina to the Commanders, where the offense wasn’t as strong, and he, again, was under the radar. While he missed most of 2021 with an injury, the past two seasons, he’s been steady. He saw 92 targets in 2022 and 91 targets in 2023, catching more than 60 passes for 600 yards in each season. In 2022, he was WR33 in 2022 and WR42, 14 spots ahead of his more highly touted teammate Jahan Dotson.
He comes to a Bills team that needs production at receiver. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone. Combined, they accounted for 241 targets. Someone needs to take that production. The Bills added rookie Keon Coleman and some other veterans, but Samuel is the most consistent performer among the new receivers added to the team. All he’s done is quietly produce despite more high-profile teammates. And in Buffalo, he has a path to do it again.
The Case Against Curtis Samuel
The Bills’ offense is a mystery. They let Diggs and Davis go but haven’t done much to build the group up from the outside. Along with Samuel, the team added veterans Chase Claypool and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Neither would seem to be a great lock for major production, but the Bills may use a committee approach to fill the receiver group. That likely also includes Coleman, a Second-Round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Bills’ offense also seemed to thrive more down the stretch by focusing on the run, meaning it could produce fewer targets to be shared
Finally, the most serious competition might come from young receiver Khalil Shakir, a Fifth-Round selection in the 2022 draft. After a quiet rookie season, Shakir took on a more significant role down the stretch for the Bills. He ended up with 39 receptions for 611 yards, finishing as WR61. He could be poised for a bigger role, which might put Samuel in more of a backup role. That will be a position battle worth monitoring this training camp.
The Bottom Line
Samuel was an under-the-radar signing, yet he was the most high-profile receiver signing by the Bills this off-season. He’s consistently been better than expected, tallying 90-plus targets in his last four healthy seasons. He’s also been a Top 45 receiver in all those seasons, sometimes as high as low-end WR2. He’s currently going as WR50, but given his track record and the Bills’ offense, I think he has a shot at being better than that. He’s worth a flier to me.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
