We’re approaching the 2024 season. Every year a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise for fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will end up being this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2024 sleeper candidates at each of the key fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
Sometimes we find under-the-radar options that have joined new teams. That often comes with its own set of questions but there can also be an opportunity. The Falcons are in the midst of re-making their offense. The team brought in Kirk Cousins at quarterback, which should provide a boost to the passing game. Instantly that seems like good news for Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, but what about the other Falcons?
This off-season, the team worked to beef up its supporting weapons. Among the free agent acquisitions was wide receiver Darnell Mooney, who had a few good seasons with the Bears. He hasn’t been talked about a lot this off-season, but could he provide the Falcons and fantasy players with some good production in 2024? Let’s weigh the evidence.
The Case for Darnell Mooney
Mooney has had some strong seasons. He was taken in Fifth Round of the 2020 draft by the Chicago Bears. In his rookie year he saw 98 targets. In his second year, he saw 140 targets, catching 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns. The past two seasons, between missed games and the inefficiency of the Bears’ passing game, it’s been more of a struggle. But now, he gets a new lease on production in what figures to be a better Atlanta offense.
We’ve seen Cousins support multiple targets before. In 2021, while Justin Jefferson took 167 targets, Cousins had three other receivers with 80-plus targets and all had 50 or more receptions. And that doesn’t even account for the 88 targets split among two running backs. In 2022, Cousins had three wide receivers with 90 or more targets while tight end T.J. Hockenson saw 86 targets. The team’s WR3, K.J. Osborn, saw 90 targets, catching 60 passes for 650 yards and five touchdowns. That was good enough for WR45.
Yes, the Falcons figure to have plenty of passing game options. But we’ve seen Cousins support four or five fantasy relevant options in past seasons. That should be a reason for optimism when it comes to looking at Mooney in this new Falcons’ offense, especially since the receiver and tight end group is thin behind the projected starters.
The Case Against Darnell Mooney
While the competition for targets shouldn’t scare anyone away, it’s a very real issue in Atlanta. The Falcons have three established young stars, all of which were taken high in the First Round of drafts. And all of them figure to be a factor in the passing attack. Last year London saw 110 targets, with 90 for Kyle Pitts, and 86 for Bijan Robinson. Those three figure to be the focus of the offense and the pass offense again. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see all three with 100-plus targets. That might not leave a lot left for the rest of the receivers.
The other question is the development of the offense itself. Cousins, Mooney, and receiver Rondale Moore are new to the offense. The offense itself is also new after a coaching change. Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson was an offensive assistant with the Rams for the past five seasons, but this is his first go as an Offensive Coordinator. That makes it something of a mystery what kind of offense he’ll run. Last year the Falcons threw it 530 times. In his last full season in Minnesota, Cousins threw it 643 times. But Cousins will be coming off injury and playing with a great running back in Robinson, so those passing numbers could come down. All that could leave fewer targets for Mooney.
The Bottom Line
Mooney is currently going as WR67. That’s not a big investment for a player who has some potential. But it’s not without risk as there are questions surrounding target share, his role, and the offense in general. But looking at the 2023 Falcons, which had a more conservative attack, the top option behind London, Pitts, and Robinson was tight end Jonnu Smith. He saw 70 targets, catching 50 passes for 582 yards and three touchdowns. He finished as TE17, which would equate to WR56 from last year on a points basis. I like the potential for Mooney to see more targets, and I think he has the talent to do more with it on an improved Falcons offense.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
