We’re approaching the 2024 season. Every year, a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise for fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will end up being this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2024 sleeper candidates at each of the key fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully, these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
As we continue to make our way through wide receiver values, it’s time to look at a veteran on a team that has a wide-open receiver group. After flaming out in 2023, the Chargers cleaned house. They moved on from their coach and general manager. Now, Jim Harbaugh is in Los Angeles, with Greg Roman serving as Offensive Coordinator. While quarterback Justin Herbert is still in place, the receiver landscape looks vastly different after veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams left the team this off-season. So, who is going to catch the ball?
The Chargers have a second-year player in Quentin Johnson and drafted Ladd McConkey and Brendan Rice in April. But it’s quite possible that the returning veteran, Josh Palmer, could be the best bet in 2024. Let’s dive in and look at the Chargers’ receivers coming into 2024.
The Case for Josh Palmer
Someone has to be the lead receiver for the Chargers. The team let Williams go in free agency, where he landed with the New York Jets. Then they traded Allen to the Chicago Bears. While Williams missed much of 2023 with injury, Allen was the team’s leading receiver. Allen saw 150 targets in 2023, while Williams had 26 before injury. In addition, the team parted ways with top back Austin Ekeler, who saw 74 targets. The team also saw top tight end Gerald Everett depart in free agency, taking 70 targets. That leaves 320 targets vacated from the 2023 season. That’s a lot.
Into that void steps an unproven group. But the best among them is Palmer. He also is the one with the most experience for the Chargers. In fact, during the 2022 season, when the team was racked with injuries, Palmer led the team in wide receiver targets. He had 107 targets, catching 72 passes for 769 yards and three touchdowns. He finished as WR37 that season and showed good chemistry with Herbert. In a room full of young, unproven players, he has the most experience and the most experience with Herbert. We’ve seen him garner 100-plus targets before and lead the Chargers in that category, and he could easily do it again.
The Case Against Josh Palmer
The case against Palmer comes down to potential competition and the offensive scheme. As to the first, Palmer is the most experienced receiver in the room, but it’s a new scheme. That leaves Palmer on equal footing with Johnston, a First-Round selection, and McConkey, a Second-Round selection. It’s no lock that Palmer will lead the group or become the featured receiver in the offense. He has had chemistry with Herbert from the past, but the young receivers were viewed as more explosive options and targets when drafted.
Second, it’s a matter of targets. Roman worked with Harbaugh for four seasons with the 49ers. In each season, he had at least one receiver with 100-plus targets. But frequently, it was a narrow funnel. Only during the 2014 season did two receivers—Anquan Bolden and Michael Crabtree—both see 100-plus targets. Roman continued that in his most recent stop in Baltimore. While he had a lead receiver, it was mostly a narrow funnel in the offense. So, if Palmer isn’t the one, it could limit his targets and severely limit his upside.
The Bottom Line
One thing that Roman had in San Francisco and in Baltimore that won’t be an issue with the Chargers in 2024 is a tight end. Vernon Davis with the 49ers and Mark Andrews with the Ravens were target hogs. In fact, Andrews was the only 100-plus target guy in Roman’s last season with the Ravens. But the Chargers boast a room that includes Hayden Hurst, Donald Parham, Jr., and Will Dissly. I don’t see any of them being a focal point of the passing offense. So, that gives the group of receivers a better chance to shine.
Palmer is currently going as WR51. He’s also the most under-the-radar option, as teams hold Johnston from last year’s rookie draft and have been jumping on McConkey in this year’s draft. Yet, I think Palmer has as good a chance as, or perhaps better, to lead the team in targets. I don’t expect the Chargers to have as robust a passing offense, but getting the lead guy is still a good acquisition in fantasy.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
