This article is part two of a series focusing on 2025 touchdown regression candidates using data from the previous season. Although it is an inexact science, we are distilling it to touchdowns expected by yardage. The last entry focused on running backs, while this one pivots to the quarterback position.
Touchdown Expectation: Yards Per TD
| Rush Yards / TD | Pass Yards / TD |
| 92.3 | 111.3 |
Based on our historical data, quarterbacks score a rushing touchdown every 92.3 yards while passing for a touchdown every 111.3 yards. For the purposes of this data set, sacks are removed.
Overperformance
The caveat I need to make before you read further is that good players always outperform expectations. However, to what degree they do so is a question worth asking, as well as if that performance is repeatable year-over-year.
Bravo, Bryson Daily. Leading the way with 16 touchdowns over expectation is almost impossibly good. Nearly all of this came on the ground (14.3!), and with an option offense like Army, it is likely inevitable that actual outperforms expected yearly. However, expecting DeWayne Coleman to go in and get close to that touchdown production is Fool’s Gold at best.
John Mateer clocks in second at 10.8, still five full touchdowns below Daily but a large total nonetheless. He had a phenomenally efficient season at Washington State, but his final totals were buoyed by overperformance in both the rush and pass game. Mateer is already a massive regression candidate with his move to Oklahoma, but even if he stayed at Washington State, expecting similar production did not seem sustainable.
Of the top returners, Cade Klubnik stands out as someone who could see some regression. However, Clemson has the country’s best receiver group and a great offensive coordinator, and Cade isn’t too shabby himself. I don’t think expecting a massive drop-off is fair. Alongside Klubnik, Sawyer Robertson strikes me as a quarterback who likely sees a minimal dropoff as well.
The final note on overperformance is that gaudy rush numbers are significantly harder to replicate with yearly variance. The two returning starters near the bottom, Matthew Caldwell and Jayden Maiava, fit into this group. These are players who, while not sexy, did provide value and may be drafted higher than their expected outcome would have indicated.
Underperformance
This group of players is a potential gold mine for 2025. Production was there, but the touchdown variance lagged, leaving owners disappointed in 2024. This group includes quarterbacks who are less accomplished than the previous group (putting it nicely), but college fantasy is sometimes more about good variance than good players.
I think the top two names on this list are the most intriguing. Taylen Green is a mobile, dual-threat quarterback who disappointed some by his lack of touchdown production in the passing game, throwing for 7.4 below expectation. If his output normalizes, expect a bounce-back season in 2025 and a potential boom if his rushing production increases. Dylan Raiola is another interesting candidate who came way in under pass touchdowns expected. He is not a dual-threat, so that is unlikely to provide any significant value, but in his second year with Dana Holgerson, there’s real potential here to be a solid bye-week fill-in or back-end QB2-3.
A handful of interesting names could see their stock rebound in 2025. Jaylen Raynor is a player who could go either way, but his rushing and passing touchdowns both lagged in a lousy season for Arkansas State. He had the second-most rushing touchdowns below expectation (behind Ashton Daneils — P.S. Justin Lamson is on the first list). I don’t think Raynor is a priority target, but it does beg the question: If it normalizes some, are we looking at a productive fantasy quarterback?
One final player I want to touch on here is Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles. Chiles had a disappointing 2024 but finished with 5.3 touchdowns under expectation. With an improved receiver group around him and another season starting, I can see the case for some upside. Most notably, expect a single receiver (or tight end) to be a beneficiary of the Chiles passing touchdown regression coming.
Conclusion
The number one takeaway when looking at quarterback production as it relates to the upcoming season is to find areas where drafters are relying on raw output (actuals) and not factoring in regression quite enough. Good players outperform their expectations, but players on the fringes are the ones to take note of in the data above.
