Approaching drafts with points per game doesn’t always cut it and leaves ample room for disappointment (or surprise). The prior season provides data points regarding expectation that fantasy points don’t always account for, leaving regression candidates not being appropriately valued in drafts. This piece discusses running backs who, based on 2024, may see a better or worse outcome when digging into touchdown expectations.
Touchdown Expectation: Yards Per TD
| Rush Yards / TD | Rec Yards / TD |
| 110 | 162 |
Based on historical data, running backs score a touchdown on the ground every 110 yards. In the receiving game, it’s every 162. These numbers vary by position, so each piece will spell it out, but this is for running backs only.
Overperformance
A couple of notes on over-performers before eviscerating them. First, the best players generally outperform expectations in the touchdown department. Teams rely on their best weapons close to the goal line or for explosive plays. Generally, the top backs will end up near the top of this list. However, to what extent they overperform is the essential piece of context. Below are the top 25 in terms of touchdowns above expectation, both rushing and receiving.
The top of the list is the best fantasy performers in the country, led by Tre Stewart’s massive 9.5 touchdowns over expectation. He actually had fewer receiving touchdowns than expected, so that rushing number is almost 10. Stewart is an excellent back in a system that runs above expectation consistently, but 25 touchdowns is too lofty. This matters when projecting who is up next for Rich Rod at West Virginia. It’s not as plug-and-play vs fantasy point expectations as one would assume.
Of the returning backs, Carsen Hansen leads the way. His limited usage in 2024 is a big reason he exceeded expectations. He was utilized in more goal-to-go situations than his Iowa State peers but, as a freshman, did not secure a significant backfield share. He’s a player who I expect to meet in the middle of expectations vs actuals with a bigger role in 2025.
Another returning rusher, Jeremiyah Love, is an obvious regression candidate. scoring, 6.8 rush touchdowns over expected, he simply does not handle enough of the workload for Notre Dame to have this number repeat in 2025. I would be wary Love sees a big enough increase in touches to justify a high pick, given his injury history. He likely finishes above expectation as he’s explosive, but seven touchdowns is a stretch.
The most important takeaway from the top backs here is avoiding the trap of projecting the next man up into a similar fantasy point expectation.
Underperformance
Now we’re cooking. These running backs are prime targets in fantasy drafts as they likely left drafters disappointed in their outcome but can, by sheer volume, return value in 2025.
Hold a vigil for Corey Kiner and Keyon Mozee drafters. Despite reaching over 1,000 yards, both backs had 6+ touchdowns below expected. Their respective replacements may be dinged for their lack of production, but touchdown variance could provide value later in drafts.
I think the most interesting player to top this list is DJ Giddens. With 5.8 touchdowns below expectation, it provides a potential buy opportunity for Dylan Edwards. Although they have different physical profiles, Edwards is stepping into a role that was productive yardage-wise but should have been more productive with touchdowns. The Kansas St backfield is a clear opportunity.
Another name that pops up here is Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson. As you’ll see in this series, Nebraska had issues converting touchdowns throughout 2024. The entire offense is primed for regression, with Dana Holgerson taking over playcalling. Johnson is the beneficiary of a wide-open backfield with the departure of Dante Dowdell, who himself was a massive overperformer. I think the answer, like most, is somewhere in the middle, but don’t discount Johnson too much in 2025.
One more name I think is firmly in the buy category is now Arizona rusher Ismail Mahdi. Mahdi (and the entire Texas State team) let many folks down in 2024, but that might create an opportunity if touchdown regression hits. If Mahdi scores with expectation, that’s an increase of 2.5 fantasy points per game, and maybe the conversation is a tad different.
Conclusion
I am simply putting numbers to results using historical context. There is nuance here that matters for each player and position that can get lost. However, looking at the top 25 for each side, we’re trying to identify extremes and tell a story that fantasy points don’t capture. When drafting, keep these numbers in the back of your head, knowing that 2024’s raw output might not be the whole story.
