Welcome back to the second part of the NFL Draft Stock Watch, an entire article filled with not my opinion but my spelling and grammatical errors; what a treat! Paraphrasing NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, “[I mock draft with my ears and create big boards with my eyes].” The top of the mock drafting community mixes a heavy dose of insider news into their mocks because there is an accuracy competition. I’m confident there’s a level of smoke & mirror to some leaked information, but it’s the best we got.
The regular season is over; the early declare soft deadline has passed, with very few exceptions; we know who is attending this draft. Half the NFL teams have completed their season and failed to make it to the playoffs. It’s time for NFL teams to build their big boards, which means… DRAFT RUMORS, at least a few!!
Also, the NFL crowd starts watching players and caring about what prospects are coming up, so more opinions are out there as time goes on. This is still early in the off-season, so continue to take mock draft data with a grain of salt and focus on the volume of players who appear in mock drafts and general movement.
We will look at relative movement by comparing the average mock draft position from mocks beginning at the end of the regular season (December 1st) to mocks completed by the soft declaration deadline(January 6th). I will only take into account full mock drafts, not team-specific mock drafts where I assume a program mock drafted the other 31 teams. Im looking for mock drafts that writers made picks for all teams
Let me point out the major flaw in this article: Not all mock drafts go at least 100 picks; some are first-round only, some are 50 players, some go 100 deep, and then there are the sickos doing full seven-round mocks. May god bless those sickos. If they are left off mock drafts, sample sizes will be small.
In The Article
To help balance out the values, I will assume players left off mock drafts would be the next pickup and add them as the 101st pick. For example, if Sheduer was in nine mock drafts and Cam Ward was present in only eight, I would assume Ward was the 101st pick in that mock draft he was left out of.
For now, it’s too early to make those adjustments. Movement should be very fluid as the season progresses. It’s not perfect, but it should reward those present in mocks and punish those absent. I will outline how many mock drafts each player was present in by giving the number of mocks in the “().” This article will have multiple parts, and data size will not become an issue when the off-season swings into gear.
Let’s be honest; I will give my commentary, but these mock draft positions do not contain my opinions. I also may expand the groups if there are interesting names worth noting.
Quarterbacks
QB1 – Cam Ward, Miami (+1)
- Pre-season (4): 2.42
- Mid-season Day (8): 1.19
- Present Day (15): 1.14
- Trending Movement: +5
Congrats to Cam Ward for being the only positively trending QB within the day 1-2 spectrum. I don’t expect this position to move much with Ward’s playing time coming to an end, and I doubt we see him do much in the off-season to risk his position.
QB2 – Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (-1)
- Pre-season (13): 1.26
- Mid-season (9): 1.11
- Present Day (15): 1.14
- Trending Movement: -3
Rumors that Shedeur’s father will take an NFL head coaching position will only lead to Shedeur climbing up draft boards. However, it’s nice to see mock drafters not putting Sanders as the 1.01 and actually looking at the talent in the other positions.
QB3 – Jalen Milroe, Alabama (+1)
- Pre-season (4): 2.41
- Mid-season (7): 1.21
- Present Day (15): 2.44
- Trending Movement: -23
Well. Well. Well. A tale as old as time. A hyper-athletic quarterback beats up on weak non-conference G5 level competition, only to return to his original position after playing stronger defenses and getting exposed. It’s Milroever, and Lizzo is singing…. until the combine, and he’s getting hyped again for his athleticism.
QB4 – Quinn Ewers, Texas (+1)
- Pre-season (9): 1.30
- Mid Season (7): 1.28
- present Day (10): 2.59
- Trending Movement: -31
It took a few years, but Quinn Ewers’s shine is wearing off with each game. His future NFL declaration is in question, but he has had his fair share of big games, leading to the conclusion that he won’t be able to step up at the next level.
QB5 – Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (-)
- Present Day (5): 3.93
- Trending Movement: +
I assume Leonard’s recent popularity is because of his appearances in the playoffs. He hasn’t proven to be a thrower, but he has proven that he has the legs required for the NFL. This information is not new, but throwing has been a struggle for him; I expect his ADP to come down from this.
QB6 – Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (+1)
- Pre-season (3): 2.58
- Present Day (6): 3.75
- Present Day (9): 4.113
- Trending Movement: -38
Downward trending is surprising to me, the real takeaway from this tis he volume of involvement we see Jaxson Dart get into these mock drafts. I believe he will solidify himself as a Day 2 option and settle somewhere in the third round.
QB7 – Will Howard, Ohio State (-)
- Present Day (3): 4.113
- Trending Movement: +
QB8 – Dillon Gabriel (-)
- Present Day (5): 5.140
- Trending Movement: +
QB9 – Kyle McCord (-)
- Present Day (5): 5.144
- Trending Movement: +
QB10 – Kurtis Rourke (-)
- Present Day (5): 5.164
- Trending Movement: +
General QB Thoughts
- As we moved out of the early, easy non-conference schedule, we saw cooler heads prevail and the QB class return to what was perceived in the pre-season. THIS. CLASS. IS. BUNS. It’s not looking good.
- Carson Beck saw a drastic dive, going from the average mid-season draft position of 1.20 all the way to 3.65. Following the injury, I expected the drop to continue, but Beck took matters into his own hands to stop the bleeding. However, none of that matters now that he is returning to the NCAA.
- It seems to be solidifying that the top Day 3 candidates for the NFL will be the current listed QB6-10. A few of these guys get an occasional Day 2 mock, but that’s inconsistent. I expect Leonard to join this group when the next article series drops.
Running Backs
RB1 – Ashton Jeanty, Boise St. (-)
- Pre-season (12): 1.26
- Mid-Season Day (8): 1.15
- Present Day (15): 1.07
- Trending Movement: +8
The mid-season mock draft ADP felt more realistic to me. I do not think Jeanty is the level of player Gibbs or Bijan are, but it is certainly a robust, reliable option that I think we translate. Teams drafting early probably have a higher need than RB, a position not valued highly in today’s NFL.
RB2 – Omarion Hampton, UNC (+1)
- Pre-season (10): 2.40
- Mid-Season (5): 2.46
- Present Day (13): 2.37
- Trending Movement: +9
RB3 – Kaleb Johnson, Iowa (+7)
- Present Day (11): 2.57
- Trending Movement: ++
Kaleb Johnson is this year’s out-of-nowhere breakout RB from Zero to Hero. With his season done and no new information coming out until probably the combine, I expect this ADP to stay about where it is.
RB4 – Quinshon Judkins, Ohio St. (-2)
- Pre-season (12): 1.22
- Mid-Season (7): 2.40
- Present Day (14): 3.65
- Trending Movement: -25
As time goes on, I personally find Judkins to be a more complicated evaluation; it seems the NFL community has started to agree. His play has not been as exciting since his freshmen year, with true highlights happening sparingly. I think today’s range feels appropriate for where he should land in the NFL.
RB5 – TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St. (-)
- Pre-season (6): 2.53
- Mid-season (5): 2.60
- Present Day (12): 3.76
- Trending Movement: -16
RB6 – Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma St. (-2)
- Pre-season (11): 2.34
- Mid-season (6): 2.52
- Present Day (9): 3.96
- Trending Movement: -44
I expect a more drastic drop in how this season has been, with two more chances to build back his draft stock coming from the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine.
RB7 – Devin Neal, Kansas (+)
- Present Day (8): 4.114
- Trending Movement:++
Devin Neal’s stock has been polarizing, with half the mock drafting thinking he has a mid-Day 3 candidate and the other half thinking he’s a Day 2 candidate. He is Very excited, a player to keep your eye on with a wide range of possibilities. The three most recent mock drafts have put Neal into Day 2.
RB8 – Kyle Monangai, Rutgers (+)
- Present Day (5): 4.133
- Trending Movement:++
It’s a bit polarizing for Monangai. There were three mocks at the back of the third round and another two with him going late on Day 3. We should get more clarity by next month.
RB9 – Dylan Sampson, Tennessee (+)
- Present Day (5): 4.138
- Trending Movement:++
RB10 – Cameron Skattebo, ASU (+)
- Present Day (5): 5.138
- Trending Movement:++
He is a polarizing prospect, with three mock drafts in early November putting him squarely in the mid-late Day 3, and the two most recent ones placing him in the third round. Keep your eye on this movement. Skattebo is a recent crowd favorite, and his ADP should rise in the near future.
RB11 – Kaleel Mullings, Michigan (-2)
- Pre-season (0): N/A
- Mid-season (3): 3.93
- Present Day (7): 5.142
- Trending Movement: -49
I thought it was cute, and everyone had fun putting Mullings in the third round; this range feels appropriate, along with the massive drop in overall RB ranking.
RB12 – DJ Giddens, Kansas St. (+)
- Present Day (4): 5.148
- Trending Movement:++
General RB Thoughts
Unfortunately, I had to end it there; many RBs show up on between 2-3 mock drafts. The sample size feels too small to bother listing; it feels like malpractice. Here are just some random findings:
- Mock drafters are being consistent with NFL trends in keeping six RBs within Day 2. I still believe this to be a strong class with good value to be found on Day 3.
- There is a ton of variation outside of the top seven RBs, with every writer having a ‘my guy’ they want to throw into the 3rd round. Personally, I love the diverse opinions.
- Penn State Nick Singleton was slightly positively trending before he decided to return for his senior season. Average Draft Position: 2.58
- Cal Jaydn Ott fell off boards at the end of November, failing to appear in a single mock draft since December 2nd. Ott has quickly fallen from a pre-season projection of a mid-3rd rounder to a UDFA. We will wait and see how 2026 treats him.
- USC Woody Marks would be the next name to add to this list, but at the time of this writing, he only took place in three mock drafts; however, in two of those, he was a Day 2 pick.
- Oregon Jordan James and Virginia Tech Bhayshul Tuten have only appeared in three mock drafts, and each RB had the best position in the late 3rd round.
- UCF RJ Harvey has been in five mocks but failed to crack the mid-4th.
- Clemson Phil Mafah has appeared in five mocks and is either mocked in the 3rd round or the 6th/7th. Similar to Rutger’s Kyle Monangai.
- SMU Brashard Smith has one mock draft appearance as the 5.150
- Georgia Trevor Etienne has only been in two mock drafts since mid-season, putting him in the 4th round.
- South Carolina Raheim Sanders is a consistently late Day 3 pick.
- Miami Damien Martinez and Michigan Donovan Edwards have not been in a mock draft since 8/30/24.
- Syracuse LeQuint Allen has never appeared in a mock draft. Sorry, Cory.
- In the next article series, I will expand the list to include the top 15. I expect Woody Marks, Bhayshul Tuten, and RJ Harvey to join the list.
Wide Receivers
WR1 – Travis Hunter, Colorado
- Pre-season (14): 1.05
- Mid-Season (9): 1.01
- Present Day (14): 1.01
- Trending Movement: N/A
I spoke too soon; in the last article, I said, “The only way to go from here is down.” here we are, right where we left off. I still do not believe he will end up at 1.01, but I expect him in the first half of the first round.
WR2 – Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
- Pre-season (14): 1.11
- Mid-Season (9): 1.06
- Present Day (14): 1.06
- Trending Movement: N/A
Two in a row staying at a consistent ADP throughout the second half of the CFB season. Initially, I think this is a bit rich for my blood, but when you survey how weak the WR class is, this makes sense. I don’t expect much movement from here and certainly wouldn’t read much into it if it did.
WR3 – Luther Burden, Missouri
- Pre-season (14): 1.08
- Present Day (9): 1.07
- Present Day (14): 1.14
- Trending Movement: -7
This should be expected with the down season and the constant nagging injury that hasn’t sidelined him during the year but has slowed him down. To be fair, the entire Missouri offense had a down year.
WR4 – Emeka Egbuka, Ohio St. (+1)
- Pre-season (13): 1.20
- Mid-season (9): 1.23
- Present Day (14): 1.23
- Trending Movement: N/A
True Freshmen WR Jeremiah Smith has stolen the show at OSU, but Emeka has stayed consistent in the eyes of the mock draft community. I will be interested to see if this holds when the NFL rumors start to leak out.
WR5 – Isaiah Bond, Texas (-1)
- Pre-season (9): 2.39
- Mid-Season (6): 1.21
- Present Day (14): 2.33
- Trending Movement: -12
Similar injury story as Luther Burden. Bond’s mock draft position took a notable change mid-December; he is now consistently getting drafted in the mid to late 2nd, and first-round appearances have become rare sightings.
WR6 – Tre Harris, Ole Miss (-)
- Pre-season (13): 3.65
- Mid-Season (6): 2.45
- Present Day (12): 2.47
- Trending Movement: -2
No real change, I want to make an observation for the thought provoking readers out here. Senior Bowl invitees usually dominate the NFL Draft, Tre Harris is a shrine bowl invitee, who do get a guy in day two of the NFL draft every now and then. I just wanted to put that information out there.
WR7 – Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (+1)
- Pre-season (6):2.48
- Mid-Season (5): 2.64
- Present Day (9): 2.57
- Trending Movement: +7
There is no real change; very consistent. I expect him to stay in this range.
WR8 – Jalen Royals, Utah St. (+7)
- Present Day (10): 3.67
- Trending Movement: +
He was injured mid-season, but his stock is up. Jalen Royals had been mocked in the fourth by the same writer three months in a row leading up to the mid-season. Royals has now seen more widespread mock drafts, and they are very consistent with placing him firmly within Day 2 of the NFL draft.
WR9 – Jayden Higgins, Iowa St. (+5)
- Present Day (8): 3.89
- Trending Movement: +
A guy out there thinks Jayden Higgins is the 21st overall pick. Iowa State comes out with the same product every year or so at WR. I expect to see Higgins around early day 3, but I think he will stick around this mock draft position.
WR10 – Tory Horton, Colorado St.
- Pre-season (6):2.43
- Mid-season (7): 2.66
- Present Day (7): 3.90
- Trending Movement: -24
Tory Horton continues to trend down in value I fully expect this to continue. Hortons name appears less in mock drafts, his future seems very much moving in the negative direction.
WR11 – Tez Johnson, Oregon (-)
- Present Day (8): 3.98
- Trending Movement: +
Tez Johnson has become a consistent name within Day 2 of mock drafts, with the occasional mock dropping him to the late Day 3. I expect Tez to become a small riser with the final names opting out of the NFL Draft.
WR12 – Xavier Restrepo, Miami (+4)
- Present Day (12): 4.101
- Trending Movement: +
The inconsistent evaluation of Restrepo continues, but he is showing up in far more mock drafts. In three mock drafts, he shows up as a late Day 3 pick; all the other put in the third round, occasionally in the second. I expect this to become more consistent with the progression of the off-season, and we see solidified Day 2 ADP.
WR13 – Kyren Lacy, LSU (+3)
- Present Day (8): 4.104
- Trending Movement: +
Kyren Lacy continues to be mocked late on Day 3 or the 3rd round, with no in-between. I still find this draft ADP to be accurate; this is where I expect him to be valued this off-season.
WR14 – Tai Felton, Maryland (-)
- Present Day (6): 4.111
- Trending Movement: +
Felton consistently mocked late 3rd or early 4th. We should see some movement in his stock post-Senior Bowl. He might not be in many mocks, but his value is consistent when he is present.
WR15 – Savion Williams, TCU (+1)
- Present Day (7): 4.113
- Trending Movement: +
Speaking for everyone here at C2C, we saw this one coming with all the recent hype. He’s a very athletic, tall WR, and I expect his ADP to get into day two before falling back to day three.
General WR Thoughts
Same as the RBs, I had to end it there; many WRs show up on between 2-3 mock drafts. The sample size feels too small to bother listing; it feels like malpractice at this point. Here are just some random findings:
- It’s a very weak WR class. The top 7 seem solidified, but I do think one WR could break into that group.
- The wildest value in this group is Jalen Royals, who has retained value despite missing most of the year while playing in the G5. I am very excited to listen to the off-season discussion about this player.
- Oregon’s Evan Stewart, before opting to return for his senior season, was considered a locked-in Day 2 pick going anywhere between pick 36 and 90.
- Texas Matthew Golden still hasn’t caught the eye of the people. The same writer has mocked Golden in the top 50 every month since the pre-season. His recent run in the playoff will undoubtedly garner attention. I expect Golden to be within the top 10 by the next article. As for now, he has only appeared in four mocks in the designated period for this stock article.
- Ole Miss Antwane Wells and Oklahoma Deion Burks (it is safe to assume Burks is going back, but there hasn’t been an official announcement) have fallen from the early 3rd round ADP to the middle of Day 3.
- Maryland Kaden Prather appeared in five mock drafts, with only one putting him on Day 2; the others average to about pick 170.
- Louisville Ja’Corey Brooks, Illinois Pat Bryant, and Iowa State Jaylin Noel have appeared in three mock drafts, all placing them in the 4th round. Pat Bryant was in a 4th mock draft that put him in the early 5th.
- TCU Jack Bech has appeared in four mocks, the best position putting him in the back of the second round and the worst putting him at Pick 216.
Tight Ends
TE1 – Tyler Warren, Penn State (+1)
- Pre-season (3): 2 46
- Mid-season (4): 2.50
- Present Day (14): 1.20
- Trending Movement: +30
TE2 – Colston Loveland, Michigan (-1)
- Pre-season (13): 1.19
- Mid-season (9): 1.22
- Present Day (13): 1.23
- Trending Movement: -1
TE3 – Harold Fannin, BGSU
- Pre-season (1): 5.146
- Present Day (3): 3.66
- Present Day (11): 3.65
- Trending Movement: -1
TE4 – Gunner Helm (+)
- Present Day (9): 3.84
- Trending Movement: +
TE5 – Mason Taylor, LSU (+)
- Present Day(8): 3.91
- Trending Movement: +
General TE Thoughts
- This is fairly consistent with your top 5 TEs and only Day 2 TEs for the upcoming NFL Draft.
- Michigan St. Jack Velling and Iowa Luke Lachey have all but fallen to the middle of Day 3.
