We’re approaching the 2025 season. Every year, a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will end up being this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2025 sleeper candidates at each of the key fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully, these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
When the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid in the First Round of the 2023 NFL Draft, it seemed he was likely to be a focal point of the passing offense. After a fine rookie year, most expected a leap in year two. But Kincaid finished as TE30, not exactly what fantasy players hoped to see. Yet, there is hope he can take another step in year three. Let’s weigh the evidence!
The Case for Dalton Kincaid
Yes, Kincaid finished as TE30. But that’s not the whole story. Kincaid appeared in only 13 games, starting nine. A healthier season will help, too. But there’s hope even in looking at his numbers. Yes, Kincaid only caught 44 passes for 448 yards and two touchdowns. On its face, that doesn’t seem impressive. Yet, he saw 75 targets. That’s a healthy amount, especially in just 13 games. That’s an indication that Kincaid was a focal point in the pass offense.
That becomes even clearer when looking at the rest of the pass offense. Khalil Shakir, who was limited to just 15 games, saw 100 targets, leading the team. Kincaid’s 75 targets were second on the team. The next closest was 57 for Keon Coleman. Mack Hollins, with his 50 targets, and Amari Cooper, with his 32 targets, aren’t on the roster. While Shakir was the top target in the passing game, the Bills actually went to Kincaid second. He finished with a healthy target lead on other receivers despite missing a handful of games. That shows that the team was focused on getting him going. That’s encouraging as we head into 2025.
The Case Against Dalton Kincaid
He was second on the team in targets and still finished as just TE30. That could be an indication that there isn’t enough volume to support multiple high-end fantasy receiving targets. In fact, Josh Allen was the MVP but threw it just 483 times. The Bills were 26th in the NFL in pass attempts. If that volume doesn’t go up, or Kincaid doesn’t greatly improve his efficiency, it’s possible there isn’t enough volume for him to achieve a Top 12 TE finish.
Another concern is the other targets. The Bills acquired Josh Palmer from the Los Angeles Chargers and Elijah Moore from the Cleveland Browns. In addition, Coleman seems poised to take a leap in year two. That could dilute the number of potential targets for Kincaid. Additionally, he shares work with Dawson Knox, who remains on the roster. Knox saw far fewer targets than Kincaid in 2024, but it is another impediment to him finishing Top 12 at the position.
The Bottom Line
I still like Kincaid. I like his talent. I like his potential. And I like his fit for a Bills’ offense that needs more weapons. But will he get enough volume? The Bills are a run-first team, especially in the Red Zone. Both Josh Allen and James Cook produced double-digit rushing touchdowns in 2024. But Allen still threw 28 passing touchdowns, which means if Kincaid can be more of a focus in the Red Zone, he could boost his numbers. That’s a big if right now. Kincaid is currently going as TE14, which is a high price if he ends up in the same spot as last year. But it could be a deal if he can get into TE1 range. With better health, better touchdown luck, and a continued focus in the pass offense, I like his chances.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
