We’re approaching the 2025 season. Every year, a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will be this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2025 sleeper candidates at each of the key fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully, these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
Last season, the Dolphins found a breakout at tight end in Jonnu Smith. He finished as TE4 and was one of the team’s bright spots on offense. This off-season, the Dolphins shipped Smith to Pittsburgh, leaving an opening at tight end. To fill that void, the Dolphins convinced Darren Waller to come out of retirement and acquired him from the New York Giants. But is Waller the answer for the Dolphins and for fantasy? Let’s dive in.
The Case for Darren Waller
When it comes to Waller, we’ve seen it before. After getting off to a slow start in his career and switching positions, he found new life as a tight end in 2019 with the Raiders. He saw 117 targets, catching 90 passes for more than 1,100 yards. He followed it up in 2020, seeing 145 targets and catching more than 100 passes. That vaulted him to being one of the top tight ends in the league. That’s the kind of upside he brings.
The other positive is the opportunity with the Dolphins. Last season, the team fed Smith 111 targets, resulting in 88 receptions. That made him one of the most productive tight ends in the league. Now Smith is in Pittsburgh, and Waller is in line to take over his role. If he gets fed that volume, Waller could again be in line to be one of the best tight ends in the league.
The Case Against Darren Waller
I mentioned above how productive Waller was in 2019 and 2020. So, what happened since then? He spent two more years with the Raiders before being dealt to the Giants, where he played in 2023. Having been beaten up and lost his love for the game, Waller retired just before the 2024 season. It’s fair to question whether he still possesses that elite talent. It’s also fair to wonder if better health from Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Tua Tagovailoa will lead to a more vertical passing game away from the tight end.
Then there’s the question of Waller’s availability. He began Training Camp on the Physically Unable to Perform List. While Waller is expected to be available for Week 1, how long will he stay available? In 2021, he was limited to 11 games. In 2022, his final year with the Raiders, he appeared in just nine games. And in his lone season with the Giants, he appeared in just 12 games. He hasn’t played a full season since 2020. It’s possible that a year away has helped clear up his injuries, but it’s also possible he struggles to stay on the field in his return to the league.
The Bottom Line
Waller was one of my favorite breakout players during his big seasons with the Raiders. However, it was quite a rollercoaster experience rostering him over the three years before his retirement. On the surface, the move to the Dolphins seems like a decent opportunity, too. But before Smith’s breakout season in 2024, the Dolphins hadn’t focused on the tight end under Mike McDaniel. The injuries to receivers and the team’s quarterback could have contributed to Smith’s increased target share. Will Waller get the same? Will he be able to stay on the field for it? Waller’s ADP of TE21 makes the potential upside enticing, but it’s worth having a backup plan.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
