We’re approaching the 2025 season. Every year, a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will end up being this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2025 sleeper candidates at each key fantasy position: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully, these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
As I wrap up my look at sleeper quarterbacks, today, I’m taking a big swing. J.J. McCarthy helped lead the Michigan Wolverines to a National Championship in 2023. He was taken in the First Round of the 2024 NFL Draft despite questions about how he would fare as a starting quarterback in the NFL. As we approach this 2025 season, where McCarthy is without question the Vikings’ franchise quarterback, we still have questions.
How McCarthy goes in 2025—his first year starting—will likely impact the fortunes of the Vikings. Will he be a star? Will he flop? There’s a range of outcomes, so let’s dive in.
The Case for J.J. McCarthy
The case for him begins and ends with Kevin O’Connell. When he was hired as the Vikings’ Head Coach before the 2022 season, he was tagged as something of a quarterback guru. He came from a Rams team where he helped them win a Super Bowl, but it likely wasn’t hard working under Sean McVay and with Matthew Stafford. So, how would he translate as a Head Coach? He guided the Vikings to a 13-4 record and the playoffs in that first season. They didn’t do well in the postseason, but it was a great year. The Vikings finished with the seventh-ranked pass offense. Of course, O’Connell had Kirk Cousins to work with.
During 2023, the team struggled to 7-10 record. But Cousins was lost early to injury, and though Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall gave it their best, the offense was inconsistent and turnover-plagued. But what O’Connell delivered in 2024 should give those rostering McCarthy the most hope. Cousins left for Atlanta, and the Vikings drafted McCarthy. But a pre-season injury ended his season. Instead, the Vikings had to ride with veteran journeyman Sam Darnold. Predictions for the team weren’t strong.
And yet, the Vikings finished 14-3, making the playoffs with one of the best records in football. Better still, Darnold was a big success on the field. Darnold finished with a career high in completions, yardage, and touchdowns. Darnold finished as QB9 on the season. It was by far the best effort of his career, and a big transformation from previous starting stints with the Jets and Panthers. A lot of that is a credit to O’Connell. With Darnold now in Seattle, he turns his attention to McCarthy, who spent a year watching on the sidelines.
The Case Against J.J. McCarthy
If the questions O’Connell has answered over his three years in Minnesota represent the best thing going for McCarthy, it’s his own past that still creates questions. Yes, he won a National Championship. Yes, he was a highly rated prospect. And, yes, he was a First-Round pick. But does that guarantee NFL success? Seeing the last few years of quarterback classes certainly seems to indicate it’s no guarantee. And, with nothing to show for his rookie year, he’s essentially starting from scratch this season.
McCarthy didn’t come from a pass-heavy offense. In fact, during that last season when he won a National Championship, his stats were modest. He threw for just 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns. Hardly eye-popping, even for a college season. That’s because Michigan was a run-heavy scheme that relied on great defense. McCarthy only threw it 332 times that season. He did complete more than 72 percent of his passes, but it’s not a huge sample. Darnold threw it 545 times in 2024. How will McCarthy handle that volume, and how will he adjust to NFL defenses, especially with a run game that’s solid but not spectacular? That’s an unknown, which creates plenty of reason to be cautious about his upside.
The Bottom Line
The Vikings took McCarthy for a reason. He certainly has upside, and we’ve seen what O’Connell can do with an unproven starter. The Vikings also still have an excellent set of weapons, including receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. There is every possibility that McCarthy will step in and thrive. But it’s not a lock. Those who took him in a rookie draft last year had to pay a premium. If they hold on, they’re hoping to see him deliver. If they’re moving him, and it comes with enough of a discount, I’d take a shot. He has QB2 upside, especially if he learned a lot during his year on the bench.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
