We’re approaching the 2025 season. Every year, a few players seize on the right opportunity and surprise fantasy players. The value comes from trying to predict who it will be this time of year and stashing them. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be looking at some 2025 sleeper candidates at each of the key fantasy positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Hopefully, these are players you can acquire at a value that will propel you to fantasy glory.
How did we get to this point? When the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts at the No. 8 overall pick, most thought he’d be a generational talent at the position. His first season, while light in touchdowns, seemed to portend something good. But, as we head into his fifth professional season, we’re still waiting for a breakout. Could it come in 2025 with Michael Penix, Jr.? Let’s weigh the evidence.
The Case for Kyle Pitts
Pitts, as noted, was a First-Round pick. During his rookie year, he saw 110 targets, catching 68 passes for 1,026 yards. It seemed to be a sign of things to come. In the three years since, he’s seen just 223 targets total. He hasn’t had a season with more than 667 yards in that time, either. All that would seem to be a knock, especially as Pitts was healthy for all 17 games the past two seasons. However, this marks the end of his rookie deal, and the Falcons have been working to rebuild the offense. That gives me some hope.
Pitts also saw 74 targets in 2024, which is a decent load. He’s still got the size and catch ability to make him a weapon. Outside of Drake London, he still seems like the most impressive target for Penix. And it would make sense that he would be a featured target in the offense. Unlike when he came into the league, he’s not highly rated. That actually turns the page to making Pitts, a player with Top 12 upside, something of a value in 2025.
The Case Against Kyle Pitts
Pitts finished as TE15 in 2024, averaging 7.7 points per game. Unfortunately, if you were looking for encouragement regarding Pitts’ work with Penix, it’s not present. In those three games, he was TE24, averaging just 6.5 points per game. Both those statistics are below what he was providing earlier in the season. It’s a small sample size, but he had two out of three games with less than four points playing with Penix, including 3.5 points in the high-scoring season finale. That’s not encouraging.
Then there’s the competition, and where Pitts might fit. He was fourth on the team in targets and fifth on the team in receptions in 2024. London, Darnell Mooney, and even Ray-Ray McCloud all had more targets and receptions than Pitts. Bijan Robinson had only two fewer targets, but still managed more receptions. All those players are back and all figure to be prominent in the Falcons’ offense again. That could leave Pitts without a clear path to meaningful targets.
The Bottom Line
I like Pitts, and I still think that we’re going to see him achieve something closer to his potential. But will it come with the Falcons? Or will he follow a path similar to Evan Engram and have his breakout in a second stop next year? If you’re holding him in Dynasty or looking at drafting him for 2025, you have to hope this is his year. With Mooney still ailing, I think Pitts is better than McCloud and could well be the No. 2 option in the passing game for Penix. Pitts is currently going as TE17, and at that price, I like the swing for a potential low-end TE1.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
