Not all recruits who are highly rated end up being good….
While the 2026 recruits prepare to play their senior years, I recommend understanding that the services (like anywhere else) may have made some projections about players in the rankings. These reaches in the stars and composite rankings may give the players more credit than their on-field production reinforces. Camps and traits are great, but I want to see the production translate to the field on Friday nights before I trust they can compete effectively on Saturdays. Here are a few names I am lower on than the services suggest. Senior years can change my projected outlook for these players, but the pressure is on to live up to the lofty rankings in the services.
Faizon Brandon
Starting off with QB2 in the composite service rankings on 247, Faizon Brandon is not on a great track for a 5-star quarterback after his junior year. He is hyped up as the current commit heading to Tennessee next year. People will point to his statistics as reasons to be excited, with 2,814 yards, a 77% completion percentage, and a great touchdown-interception ratio of 35-2. And Brandon even added 625 yards rushing on the ground.
However, he played in 16 games, so that came out to only passing for 175 yards/game. In total, he averaged only 2.75 touchdowns per game, which is significantly lower than historical averages. Those two factors combine to become a negative for him in my total PPG metric, as the next-to-bottom category, and in the very bottom tier of the passing PPG metric.
If nothing were to change today (thankfully not the case), he is sitting at a 71 in my high school model. I prefer above 80 and at a minimum above 75. Suppose we filter it down to similar circumstances of QBs with a five-star status and below 75 in my model. In that case, we get the following names: Blake Barnett, Jacob Eason, Hunter Johnson, JJ McCarthy, Ty Simpson, Dylan Raiola, and Husan Longstreet. We see a few upside cases here (I think McCarthy was personally limited by what IMG does), but also a few instances in which their future value could be at risk.
Noah Grubbs, QB
My second quarterback in this list is Noah Grubbs, who checks in as QB14 in the 247 composite as a 4-star with a 0.9234 composite rating. Here are his stats for his junior year.
The first red flag should be a low completion percentage. A few other concerns include the low passing yards per game, just over 200 yards per game, and the calculated Passing Adjusted Yards per Attempt (PAYA) is under 10, which is not great for a high school level. Combine that with 2.8 total TDs/game and the fact that he is a statue QB (averaging under 10 yards per game rushing) leads to poor performances in the rest of my PPG metrics and a poor score of 62 in the model.
A few names in that range of my HS model include Elijah Brown, Eli Holstein, Luke Kromenhoek, Miller Moss, Tyler Van Dyke, and Tyler Shough as some notable names in this range of the model. Limited upside seems to be the key here, with a massive need to fit into a correct scheme as a passer with no massive rushing upside.
Peyton Falzone, QB
Falzone checks in right now as QB18 in the composite services as a 4-star guy with a 0.9153 composite rating. As of today, he is committed to Auburn, so I already see some potential holdups here. Freeze may get canned if the team fails to show positive momentum this season. Arnold could be a potential revival career candidate with Auburn and stay an extra year. Freeze has gone to the portal consistently for QB help as well. Then the big factor is what happens with Deuce Knight, too, who may get some work or have to take over if Jackson Arnold is not any good.
As a second-year starter, it is concerning to see Falzone has such a low completion percentage. What makes it more troubling is the fact that his AYPA is only 8.7, indicating that he is not performing well on the short and intermediate-range tasks. Several similar concerns also exist with his profile, such as low passing yards, touchdown rates, and the two PPG metrics I examine on a per-game level. He participates in multiple sports, so the athletic upside is not surprising, especially as a runner. However, I’m looking for a more refined passer if I’m betting on someone at the P4 level.
Travis Burgess, QB
Travis is a highly sought-after name following some of the attention he garnered this offseason for participating in the Elite 11 circuit and committing to North Carolina. Currently, he is ranked at QB14 in the composite services, with a rating of 0.9266 (also listed at QB7 by 247 Sports). Burgess plays for a powerhouse program at Grayson, but he did not have his best junior year, considering his high rating. He was under 175 yards/game passing and under 10 yards AYPA. He does offer rushing upside as a mobile QB, but Burgess barely averages over 2 TDs/game when combining both elements of his game.
It is not uncommon to see the better high school QBs putting up over 20+ PPG in just their passing aspect; Burgess, in total PPG, sits at 19.83, which is a far cry from what we need. Hopefully, we see some massive output in his senior year production because he misses so many marks and sits at a 59 on my HS production scale. Some past examples include Tyler Shough, Sean Clifford, Rickie Collins, and Malik Washington.
Mark Bowman, TE
Alright, not many tight ends get highly rated, but Bowman is one I will caution concerns about again. We have four tight ends with 5-star rankings, but Bowman tops the list with a 0.9910 composite rating. I don’t understand the hype and believe it is more related to the fact that he plays for a big program. He “reclassified” up to the 2026 class, but his age puts him with 2026 anyway.
Athletically, Bowman is under 0.7 on the star index. That does not scream super elite athlete for a tight end who checks in at 6’4” 225 pounds. His best comps of the close options are Pat Freiermuth, Austin Hooper, Alec Holler, Thomas Yassmin, Brycen Hopkins, and Harrison Bryant. None of these guys have been phenomenal options in college or the pros unless we count the few who did a little something for us at the G5 level. Unfortunately, Bowman is currently committed to USC.
Performance-wise, his numbers are below average at best. Across 12 games, he has 35 catches for 435 yards and eight touchdowns. This is with Chris Henry Jr., who is also missing most of the season, and is a high-profile receiver committed to Ohio State. That 12.4 yards/reception is poor for high school standards at the position, and he scored low for every other metric, too, including PPG.
If we focus on his score of 44, that would be the 39th worst score among the 48 tight ends in the model with a composite rating of 0.9500 or above. That puts him in the same category as names like Darnell Washington, Colby Parkinson, Nick Townsend, Jelani Thurman, Donovan Green, Dalton Schultz, and Baylor Cupp. Suppose we remove the limits, which puts him tied for 215th out of 337 tight ends. The successes below him were playing QB in high school. The closest successes around him are Luke Musgrave and Dalton Schultz. I recommend extreme caution as of today.
