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CFB Week 1 is behind us; you know what that means……OVERREACTIONS.

The Office' star Ed Helms on playing Andy Bernard and punching the wall | Mashable
 
We’re going through this in a note-style, but before we get started, a few things: take everything with a grain of salt. I personally think it takes the first four weeks to develop realistic expectations of a player, and P5 teams are expected to dominate FCS opponents. 
 
College Football fans, any P4 team that struggled to beat an FCS opponent should be concerned for the upcoming season; I’m talking about:
🔹Oregon
🔹Texas Tech
🔹Colorado
🔹NC State
 
Let’s talk about those four teams first.
 
1. Oregon. Dillon Gabriel is a short-area passer who went to a team that likes to scheme short-area passes. Gabriel hyper-targeted a short-area receiver who is short in height and weight—shoutout to Tez Johnson. I am not panicking about Evan Stewart; I’m almost rooting against him to get him on the cheap during the year.
  • If you follow my content, then you know I’m not a TE guy, but Terrance Ferguson, keep an eye out for him.

2. Texas Tech. Overall: Yikes. I’m not worried about Micah Hudson not playing; it’s just Week 1. We were spoiled with freshmen involvement this week, but it was mostly in blowouts, and Hudson was not a spring participant.

3. Colorado. Sheduer Sanders still has the same problem when facing pressure, and I think he could really improve his pocket navigation. By getting consistent pressure, NDSU, an FCS opponent, BTW, should tell you that the offensive line will have another tough year, and Sheduer got away with a lot due to the overall talent gap.

  • Travis Hunter, I really want to see the route running. He has excellent flexibility and is a great athlete, and I have no issue with what he does at the catch point or as a YAC threat. There are a lot of shades of Kadarius Toney in his game, but without the off-field stuff and no issues with health.
  • Jimmy Horn, a long catch of 69 yards, is nice. Can he be more than a special teamer at the next level?
  • Will Sheppard…. woof. He should have stayed at Vandy.

4. NC State. Noah Rogers, Y1Z Noah Rogers, is, in fact, not the WR1 for NC State; beat reporters lied to us because they got starry-eyed over a high-level recruit. This is a tale as old as Arkansas true freshman TE Monte Harrison (he’s 29 years old).

5. Arkansas. Ja’Quinden Jackson is back on the radar, but I just think he’s a good athlete.
 
6. Tennessee. QB Nico Iamealava builds on last year and continues to look the part of a future stud. Let’s talk WRs. Huepel offenses don’t really develop route runners or WRs with diverse skill sets.
  • Squirrel White, the more time passes, the more I don’t think his skillset translates to the NFL well beyond a Day 3 capacity or special teamer.
  • Mike Matthews was an early enrollee but couldn’t get on the field when 15 separate players caught passes in a blowout. Should you treat this like last year’s Jurrion Dickey situation, where we saw 18 separate players get a reception? Tennessee went to the three deep, and QB Jake Merklinger got reps. You should sell now.
7. Missouri. We all know Luther Burden is good, but what’s on the horizon? I am a known WR Marquis Johnson fan. He wasn’t listed as a starter but led the team in targets. I don’t see any star potential on this roster besides Johnson, who might be a field stretcher. Kirby Moore’s WR1 for 2026 is up in the air, and the answer might just be the portal, but Marquis Johnson is dirt cheap.
 
8. Oklahoma.
  • Gavin Sawchuk still started, its his job, don’t panic.
  • Jackson Arnold looked….okay… it’s early, but he doesn’t look like a bust.
  • Deion Burks is really getting used, like how they used Marvin Mims; adjust accordingly.

9. Georgia. I’ll tell you what. I really thought we could see a 1,000-yard receiver from this team, given that this is the best quarterback they’ve had this century. Some things will never change.

  • Pass catchers had drop issues
    • Colbie Young wasn’t a starter, and this was a big game, and in his fifth year…. this is a major moral blow to the Colbie Young hive (me). It’s a big stock down.
    • Dillon Bell continues to prove to be a safety blanket option that can be lined up anywhere.
    • TE Delp…. 0 catches. Yurosek…. 0 catches, and only seven routes.
  • Branson Robinson had one shot to regain some value and it didn’t happen. Hard Pass.

10. Texas. The pass-catching room is reloaded. The Reports of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

  • There is a healthy rotation of talent, but Ewers’s top options looked to be Isaiah Bond AND….. Matthew Golden. C2C darling, whose death was greatly exaggerated. He looked great; shoutout to everyone, especially Justin Massie, who held the faith
  • Silas Bolden is another example of G5 WRs transferring up who should be faded unless it’s one of those gimmicky offense schemes that their playstyle fits.
11. South Carolina. Oh boy.
The floor is lava : r/memes
 
  • LaNorris Sellers? I barely even know her.
    • Jokes aside, he really was bad. As a devy analyst, I am sad. As a UK fan, I’m pretty excited.
    • The pass catchers looked terrible.
  • Nyck Harbor wasn’t good enough to beat out any of these WRs. I mean, let’s be honest about Harbor.
  • Raheim Sanders isn’t going to bounce back.

12. Alabama.

  • I wouldn’t panic about WR Germie Bernard yet. I felt like he was game-scripted out on this one. He led the team in routes run, but it was only 14 routes.
  • The RB room is still muddled, but Jam Miller truthers should feel better after last year’s lack of breaking out. There are a lot of promising options in this backfield.

13. Auburn. Heavy freshmen involvement, love that for devy, but it is probably not great for actually winning games against tough opponents.

  • Three QBs got snaps in this blowout; Walker White was not one of them.

14. Penn State. The new offensive system is as advertised

  • Drew Allar looked comfortable. His WRs core still isn’t great, but still awesome to see them open up the playbook.
  • Shoutout to James Franklin for not being stubborn, recognizing that change was needed, and seeking solutions. The WR room is next on his list to fix. Dabo should take notes on how to adapt.
  • Nick Singleton, welcome back, clearly benefiting from the Andy Kotelnicki offense.

15. Michigan. The new Iowa? This offense is going to be tough to watch, and they’ll need to lean on the defense to win games

No photo description available.

 

  • QB room, is it the worst in the Power 4?
  • WR room, is it the worst in the Power 4?
  • The O-Line has been the lifeblood of this offense for the last couple of years, and it looks like Rome has fallen. The boys will be pondering this for years.
  • RB Room, is it the worst in the Power 4?
    • It’s not, but Donovan Edwards was blind and couldn’t run behind a Joe Moore Award finalist line last year, and I don’t know why anyone would think he could do it this year.
    • Edwards has always been more athlete than a developed player, but those types of players typically shine when they have a strong supporting cast and they don’t have that anymore (not that he shined at all last year when he did have a strong support cast)
    • Edwards’s skillset doesn’t even fit the power running that Michigan likes to deploy; that’s why we see late converted LBs like Kaleel Mullings being more successful with a far shorter resume.
    • Sell Edwards. You should’ve sold him two years ago; I truly can’t name a player whose sell window was open longer than this one.
16. Ohio State. It’s still a Brian Hartline offense.
  • Is Will Howard the best rusher on this team?
    • I joke, I’m just a fan, but he did look rough in his opener and makes up for it with his legs.
  • RBs. Judkins and Henderson split…… Are they just going to cannibalize each other all year and look like two separate mediocre backs?
    • Talent is there; I’m just worried about NFL perception. I thought they both looked good, but they should both be better.
Life is good, but it can be better

 

17. Miami. The U is Back?

    • Cam Ward’s decision to come back to college was the right one, but I wish the decision-making process was faster. He’s waiting to throw to receivers, and he can get away with it because of his escapability. Still, it’s a great showing.
    • Xavier Restrepo should be on ALL devy radars. He’s not a sexy player to have on the board, but he’s one of the most robust.
  • Mark Fletcher, speedy recovery! I was very surprised to see him play; still a plodder.
  • Damien Martinez only looked interested in running into the back of the line. I’m a little concerned, but we wait.

18. Florida.

  • If Eugene Wilson is going to prove to everyone that he can work downfield. It’ll have to be against weak competition because the talent seems to keep getting worse every year.

19. Virginia. Malachi Fields’ extension grab was bonkers.

 

20. MSU. Aidan Chiles…… big yikes….*adjusts rankings*

21. KSU. Jayce Brown still looks incredibly quick, like a 60-800-5 type of year with a 50% dominator rating on the way. Please transfer; you’re too talented for this.

22. Stanford.

  • I’m just going to say it. I don’t think I saw Elic Ayomanor separate once against TCU corners. His game is predicated on his physical playstyle and being an athlete. This is tough to translate to the NFL unless you truly believe Ayomanor is on the George Pickens or Drake London spectrum.
  • It’s way too early, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable drafting Ayomanor as a rookie first rounder but would prefer if he was a mid-second rounder.

23. TCU.

    • Josh “Dam” Hoover was dealing out there. He uses a short, compact throwing motion with a fast zip. I’m in love. Get ready for a 4K passing season.
    • Savion Williams deserves to be on radars but is likely a Day 3 option as a hyper-athletic WR.
  • Eric McAlister was a no-show….. RIP?

24. Maryland. 

  • Billy Edwards was also dealing but wasn’t pressured and would lock onto his first read. Regardless, it was nice to see the live arm.

25. UNC. This team is crashing, but they can probably beat FSU at this rate.

  • Omarion Hampton took 30+ rushing attempts and only got 129 yards, adding five receptions for 17 yards. He’s a plodder, and I expect this type of inefficient stat line to continue for most of the year.

26. Games I saw 0% off, and probably won’t go back and watch because it is Week 1, and these are overreactions:

  • Oklahoma St. RB Ollie Gordon, why were you so inefficient against an FCS opponent when many (not me) think you’re the RB1?
  • Were we lied to about Louisville WR Chris Bell? Is it the Ja’Corey Brooks show?
  • Duke WR Jordan Moore is always an intriguing profile. He had a great Week 1 showing. Can he keep the momentum?
  • Indiana’s new offense under winning HC Curt Cignetti is off to a bumpy start. My Elijah Sarratt love might be put on hold for a year.
 
27. Speaking of true freshmen, I can’t remember the last time we saw this many involved in Week 1. Is this what life looks like post-COVID-eligible players?
  • Quarterbacks
    • Dylan Raiola – looked better than I expected
    • DJ Lagway – they benched their reliable veteran Graham Mertz to get a look at their 5-star. This is more significant than people are talking about. Teams don’t bench reliable players when they are losing; this statement is not about raw talent.
  • Running Backs, going to keep this simple, RBs who passed the eye test and probably maintain and/or improve their current value the rest of the year:
    • Nate Frazier
    • Jerrick Gibson
    • Taylor Tatum
    • Jason Patterson
    • Kewan Lacy
    • Kam Davis – ish
    • Jason Brown Jr.
    • (insert whoever I missed, no need to be overly critical of Freshmen RB, it’s just nice to see them touch the field)
  • Wide Receiver takeaways:
    • https://campus2canton.com/year-1-zero-tool/
EVERYTHING IS AN OVERREACTION
Generally by Week 4 though, players should be trending how they’ll play by the end of the year, with the exception of true freshmen getting more worked into the offense.
 
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