We spent all offseason digging into the data and determining what would at least point us in the right direction of a winning lineup. One of my biggest takeaways was the receiver position and how we need to think about it. These valuable receivers typically play outside, are slot receivers in elite systems, and/or have a proven quarterback. When looking at the ADP as it stands, which receivers are going high that don’t fit that mold? Let’s dig in…
Ryan Wingo (48.8)
I’ll start with the one I’m least firm on, and that’s Ryan Wingo. I’m buying him as the WR1 for the Texas offense that I believe could throw for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns (or more). Unfortunately for Wingo, what is that target share going to look like? I love the player and his upside, but not at this cost.
Wingo lands directly in the QB run around that 4/5th round turn, and thus is a guy I don’t really have any of. I’ll also add that a guy who’s likely to see a 16-17% target share at best, who hasn’t even been deemed WR1, is enough reason not to feel bad about cooling on him.
Makai Lemon (49.1)
Lemon’s best-case target share is likely to be no higher than 18-19%, based on what we’ve seen from Lincoln Riley over the past five seasons. This is going to limit his production, considering we don’t see Jayden Maiava as a quarterback who can throw for 3,500 yards and 30+ touchdowns, like Arch Manning at Texas.
Lemon will be playing in the slot and should rack up a good amount of receptions, but in this 0.5PPR scoring format, it doesn’t mean much to me. Ja’Kobi Lane is a touchdown hog out wide and showed to have a good connection with Maiava in limited action. I’m a firm hater of Lemon at this ADP and plan on having zero by the offseason’s end.
Eugene Wilson (58.3)
With Wilson, we see some slight differentiation as to why we should all be out on him. Wilson could see a target share of upwards of 30% in 2025 and has proven to be a talented player. Unfortunately for him, his quarterback is always injured, and I believe should be in the bucket of “unproven”. Wilson could be in trouble if DJ Lagway misses time, as the backups for the Gators would get eaten alive by this SEC schedule. While his cost is slightly lower, he played nearly 45% of his snaps in the slot and has a shaky quarterback situation. I’m completely out on Eugene Wilson.
Kevin Coleman (83.1)
Coleman transfers over from Mississippi State to Missouri to replace Luther Burden as the slot target in this offense. Coleman played 87.9% of snaps in the slot last year, so the shoe fits. The system has given us value out of that role, even if Burden was a bust in 2024.
In 2025, Missouri has an unproven quarterback in Beau Pribula (or Sam Horn, if you believe a QB battle is actually brewing), so be cautious here. This offense could be rough with Ahmad Hardy, who is making the dreaded G5 to SEC transfer, expected to be the starting running back. While Missouri plays in the SEC, they do avoid Georgia and Texas. It’s not the most intimidating schedule from a defensive standpoint. As a pick in the 80s, Coleman isn’t the worst option to get on board with, but I’m steering clear because of the quarterback situation.
KC Concepcion (89.4)
This one almost feels like cheating. When has Texas A&M produced a star wide receiver for us? Concepcion is also a guy who played in the slot heavily for NC State and should continue to play that role with the Aggies. With Marcel Reed at quarterback, I believe you can say that there is a proven quarterback under center, but he’s also one known more for his legs than his arm. If Concepcion had just an average freshman year, would people be drafting him this high? He took a step back in 2024 with a stat line of 53/460/6, one that wouldn’t surprise me seeing again in 2025.
