Can you believe it’s Week 5 already? We’re almost out of September, and the matchups are starting to heat up. And the injuries are starting to pile up! Let’s look at how these two things are impacting our DFS decisions come Saturday…
Quarterbacks
High Priced
The clear-cut top play of the slate is Caleb Williams ($10,500). You saw what Bo Nix did to Colorado last week, right? Caleb has 18 total TDs so far and is going to be fired up to take back the best odds at Heisman with a huge performance in this one.
Is it possible that I talk positively about Quinn Ewers ($8,700) for once? Well, in the last two weeks, we’ve seen limited usage from him (28 and 23 total attempts). But in the first two weeks of the season, those numbers were 41 and 38. I think with the matchup against Kansas, we’ll see 40+ attempts. He shockingly has a rushing upside with positive yardage and a TD in three of four games this season. This Kansas game will be a popular game stack, too.
Middle of the Pack
If Cade Klubnik ($7,500) is able to punch it in from one yard out last week, he would have three straight games of mid to upper 20 fantasy points. He’s a big usage guy and against Syracuse, I think this could be a high-scoring game. Clemson’s offense seems to have caught its stride, and while it’s not as elite as it used to be, it’s certainly not in discussions with Iowa’s anymore.
Hudson Card ($6,600) has surprised me with the rushing upside he’s provided so far this year. He has three TDs on the ground and three games of 15+ rushing yards. What’s wild is he has just three passing TDs on the season. This can’t continue against Illinois, in my eyes. His pricing makes him a viable option on this slate.
Will Boise State unleash Taylen Green ($6,200) for once, please? This is an enticing price, and I do believe he has a solid floor in this matchup against Memphis. I could see this one being a shootout. George Holani appears likely to be back for this matchup, which can’t possibly be good for Green, but I still like him here. The Broncos offense has gone from 16 and 19 points in their first two contests to 34 and 42 recently. Green’s TD equity will surely catch up to 2022 numbers at some point.
Bare Minimum
Surprisingly, there are some really appealing options here on the slate. Luke Altmyer ($5,700) appears to be the best, with his 20.2 FPPG in 2023. It’s his high usage and the lack of a true star in the backfield that gets him there. Purdue just made Tanner Mordecai look like a Heisman contender, and for that reason, I’m interested in Altmyer here.
If Sam Jackson V ($5,500) gets the nod against Arizona State, then you have to consider him in tournament entries. He’s an electric athlete who is a little raw as a passer. Arizona State loves to make other teams’ passing attacks look good. That’s a great sign for Jackson here. Ben Finley ($6,100), if named starter, is interesting as well, all things considered, but I’d prefer Jackson here.
Running Backs
High Priced
The high-priced options are good but not as great as the middle of the pack, so I’ll be quick here. Blake Corum ($8,300) is your safest bet on the board. He’d be my pick of all flex players to hit 20+ points if I had to pick one. Harbaugh simply can’t not let this man score every game. If you’re looking for upside, then MarShawn Lloyd ($7,600) is an incredible option. He’s a high-yard-per-touch game and just last week ran for 154 on 14 carries. Against Colorado, that type of effectiveness could mean 200+ and 2+ TDs.
Middle of the Pack
Ashton Jeanty ($6,800) is a lock if George Holani is out for this matchup against Memphis. He’s used in all facets of the offense and has eight total TDs. I still like him if Holani plays, strictly because ownership will be off on him, and Holani could play but still be limited.
Blake Watson ($6,500) is similar to Jeanty in that he is used all over the field, with his 24 receptions in just four games. His effectiveness on the ground isn’t the same, but he’s still a great play. Boise State has struggled on defense, and the Memphis offense depends on using Watson a good deal weekly.
Cedric Baxter appears to either be limited due to injury or due to being the RB2 in this offense, which means great things for Jonathon Brooks ($6,200). Brooks has back-to-back games of 100+ rushing yards, which you’d think the Texas staff would lean on in big matchups like Kansas.
LeQuint Allen ($5,700) has a tougher matchup than the above with this game against Clemson, but he owns high usage in this Syracuse offense, so he’s still worthy of using. In the two non-blowouts in 2023, he has 23 touches in both (nine receptions in total). This game is going to be a lot of Allen and Shrader, the QB.
If Raheim Sanders ($5,600) is healthy in this matchup against Texas A&M, then you must consider him in all formats. He’s a first-round CFF pick-type talent and is matchup-proof in my eyes (okay, maybe not including UGA).
Bare Minimum
There aren’t a ton of near-minimum options here, so I’ll just try and go as cheap as I can here. Jaylin Lucas ($4,600) has seen some really nice usage in this Indiana offense in 2023. He struggled against Akron last week, but it’s hard to ignore his ten-catch game against Louisville and his two-score game against Indiana State. At this price, he’s a valid tournament entry option.
Reggie Love III ($4,200) should be back from injury (if he’s not, then insert Josh McCray ($4,000) here). They split carries a decent bit, but for the price and the fact Love is the typical starter, I think the matchup poses as an interesting one if needing a player this cheap.
Wide Receivers
High Priced
Assuming he’s healthy, Xavier Weaver ($6,800) projects really well for me against USC. This Trojans defense just gave up 28 against Arizona State, so why shouldn’t Colorado get some points in bunches here? Weaver has three straight games of nine or more catches and has not yet seen the TD equity you’d expect out of a player with his talent. Jimmy Horn Jr. ($6,600) is a good option regardless of Weaver’s health but explodes if, for some reason, he’s out.
I’m not entirely surprised that Auburn slowed down Evan Stewart ($7,200) to the tune of 3/50/1 last week. This week against Arkansas should be a different story. Their defense doesn’t have the ability to shut a guy down, and even with the QB2 starting the rest of the season, Stewart will be just fine.
Middle of the Pack
Roc Taylor ($6,100) has more than six catches in three of four games this season and gets a nice matchup against Boise State. I like his QB as well, but I suspect Taylor is the better play here. He’s seeing nearly 22% of team targets and has nearly 300 receiving yards in 2023.
Last week, Noah Thomas ($5,600) missed his second game in a row but should be back for this matchup against Arkansas. He has a three-TD game so far this season and saw six and seven targets in those first two games of the year.
UGA certainly needs Brock Bowers ($5,400) to continue to be productive in this offense, as injuries have muddied the receiver and running back rooms in 2023. Bowers is coming off his best game of the year against UAB, where he scored twice and added 121 receiving yards. The strength of the Auburn defense is the cornerback room, and thus, we could see Bowers be effective in his role in this UGA offense.
Bare Minimum
Tyler Brown ($4,800) is my favorite cheaper option on this slate, assuming the Clemson WR room remains banged up. Things get trickier if Antonio Williams is back for this matchup against Syracuse.
Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,700) has two games of five catches and 110+ receiving yards this season. I think it’s a real possibility that he adds another one in this big matchup against Kansas. He led the team with eight targets in Week 4.
Tar’Varish Dawson ($4,800) and Michael Harrison ($4,500) are good options regardless of Weaver’s healthy, but if he doesn’t suit up, then move Dawson and Harrison up your boards big time in this matchup against USC. They’re typically the fourth or fifth options in the offense but could be as high as a second or third option due to injuries.
