Welcome back to the third part of the NFL Draft Stock Watch, an entire article filled with not my opinion but analyzing movement among recent big boards in the industry! Paraphrasing NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, “[I mock draft with my ears and create big boards with my eyes].” The top of the mock drafting community mixes a heavy dose of insider news into their mocks because there is an accuracy competition. I’m confident there’s a level of smoke and mirrors to some leaked information, but it’s the best we have. Big Boards are created by individual player analysis, no factors of scheme fit, team needs, or NFL rumors.
The regular season is over, the declare deadline has passed, and the Senior Bowl and Shrine Bowl have passed. The last major event is the NFL combine and the interviews they conduct around that time. The full attention of NFL front offices is on building the team to be better the next year.
We will look at relative movement by comparing the average big board positions from updates at the end of the soft declaration deadline(January 6th) and regular season (December 1st) to mocks completed by the day of this writing (2/24/25). Let me point out the major flaw in this article: Not all mock drafts go at least 100 picks; some are first-round only, some are 50 players, some go 100 deep, and then there are the sickos doing full seven-round mocks. May god bless those sickos. If they are left off mock drafts, sample sizes will be small.
In The Article
The majority of big boards only go 100 players deep, and while we expect some level of consistency with the high-end prospects, how do I balance out the rest who are not included in every big board? To help balance out the values, I will assume QBs’ left-off boards would be within the early Day 3 and add them as the 178th overall player, sliding them in as the last pick of the 5th round. For example, if Sheduer was in nine big boards and Cam Ward was present in only eight, I would assume Ward was the 178th overall player in that big board he was left out of. I will assume WR left off boards to would be the first pick of the 4th round, pick 101. RB/TE will be assumed to be the last pick of the 4th round, pick 139. This adjustment is broadly based on the frequency that each position gets drafted.
I have not made those adjustments in prior articles; this will go into effect for this article. It’s certainly flawed, but it’s the best way I could think of balancing out the fallacy and acknowledging the difference in presence each prospect has across big boards. However, I must recommend that you take special notice of the volume a player is present in mock drafts rather than the position. I will outline how many mock drafts each player was present in by giving the number of mocks in the “().”
Let’s be honest; I will give my commentary, but these positions do not contain or reflect my personal player evaluations.
Quarterbacks
QB1 – Cam Ward, Miami (-)
- Pre-season (4): 2.42
- Mid-season Day (8): 1.19
- Soft Declaration Deadline (15): 1.14
- Present Day (35): 1.16
- Trending Movement: -2
There has been rock-solid consistency from Cam Ward in the last three updates. The only major event left is the NFL combine, and with the weak QB class, there really isn’t anything left to prove.
QB2 – Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (-)
- Pre-season (13): 1.26
- Mid-season (9): 1.11
- Soft Declaration Deadline (15): 1.14
- Present Day (35): 1.21
- Trending Movement: -7
Sheduer falling back to pre-season value makes sense with the NFL community now in full player evaluation mode. Locked in consensus QB2.
QB3 – Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (+3)
- Pre-season (3): 2.58
- Mid-Season (6): 3.75
- Soft Declaration Deadline (9): 4.113
- Present Day (22): 4.108
- Trending Movement: +5
A rising name in the draft class, getting pushed up because of the major flaws in everyone else’s game. Jaxson Dart has only made one appearance in the first round of a big board but finds a lot of consistency in Day 2. We have our solidified QB3 in the class. The question left is, how far does a quarterback-needy team reach to take their shot?
QB4 – Jalen Milroe, Alabama (-1)
- Pre-season (4): 2.41
- Mid-season (7): 1.21
- Soft Declaration Deadline (15): 2.44
- Present Day (20): 4.115
- Trending Movement: -71
It’s Milroever Part II. Following the conclusion of the Senior Bowl, we are seeing consistency in the very late third and even fourth rounds. It’s like watching the stock market crash in 1930.
QB5 – Quinn Ewers, Texas (-1)
- Pre-season (9): 1.30
- Mid Season (7): 1.28
- Soft Declaration Deadline (10): 2.59
- Present Day (11): 5.150
- Trending Movement: -91
Since the declaration deadline, Quinn Ewers has only shown up in 11 out of 35 big boards. Yikes, he better have the best interview skills to move up.
QB6 – Will Howard, Ohio State (+1)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (3): 4.113
- Present Day (9): 5.155
- Trending Movement: -42
Will Howard occasionally slides in the late 3rd round, but it’s safer to view him as an early Day 3 QB at this time
QB7 – Dillon Gabriel (+1)
- Present Day (5): 5.140
- Present Day (10): 5.156
- Trending Movement: -16
QB8 – Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (-3)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (5): 3.93
- Present Day (8): 5.169
- Trending Movement: -76
“I assume Leonard’s recent popularity is because of his appearances in the playoffs. – Mike (Jan 6th, 2025).” Absolutely clairvoyant. Riley Leonard hasn’t been inside the 3rd round of a big board since the playoff run with his worst position at 322nd overall.
QB9 – Kyle McCord (-)
- Present Day (5): 5.144
- Present Day (7): 5.169
- Trending Movement: -25
It was a fun week of hype after the Shine Bowl, which got Kyle McCord one big board appearance in the late third, and the rest of his appearances were in the fifth round.
General QB Thoughts
- As we moved out of the early, easy non-conference schedule, cooler heads prevailed, and the QB class returned to what was perceived in the pre-season. THIS CLASS IS BUNS. It’s not looking good.
- We have a solidified top three with an order I doubt we will see change. The real question is whether we see more than three QBs drafted between day one and two.
- Tyler Shough has gotten recent attention from Dane Bruglar with a 59th overall appearance a few weeks ago. However, he has failed to show up in more than three big boards, trending to a late Day 3 – UDFA status.
- QB5- QB9 should be viewed as interchangeable, just one big tier, and likely make up the Day 3 selections.
Running Backs
Small Note: Only Ashton Jeanty was present in 34 big boards, so the adjustments for RBs will be based on being present in 28 total big boards.
RB1 – Ashton Jeanty, Boise St. (-)
- Pre-season (12): 1.26
- Mid-Season Day (8): 1.15
- Soft Early Declaration Deadline (15): 1.07
- Present Day (34): 1.06
- Trending Movement: +1
I do not think Jeanty is at the level of player Gibbs or Bijan is, but he is certainly a robust, reliable option that I think will translate. Early first still feels rich to me for an RB, and I am the very small minority, despite Jeanty’s continuing upward trend. Teams drafting early probably have a higher need than RB, a position not valued highly in today’s NFL.
RB2 – Omarion Hampton, UNC (+1)
- Pre-season (10): 2.40
- Mid-Season (5): 2.46
- Soft Declaration Deadline (13): 2.37
- Present Day (27): 2.37
- Trending Movement: n/a
RB3 – Kaleb Johnson, Iowa (+7)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (11): 2.57
- Present Day (26): 2.50
- Trending Movement: +7
Kaleb Johnson is this year’s out-of-nowhere breakout RB from Zero to Hero. With his season done and no new information coming out until probably the combine, I expect this ADP to stay about where it is.
RB4 – TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St. (+1)
- Pre-season (6): 2.53
- Mid-season (5): 2.60
- Soft Declaration Deadline (12): 3.76
- Present Day (28): 2.53
- Trending Movement: +23
RB5 – Quinshon Judkins, Ohio St. (-1)
- Pre-season (12): 1.22
- Mid-Season (7): 2.40
- Soft Declaration Deadline (14): 3.65
- Present Day (23): 3.72
- Trending Movement: -7
Judkins continues to fall on the big boards, but it’s finally flipped to have Henderson above him. His play has not been as exciting since his freshman year, with true highlights happening sparingly. I think today’s range feels appropriate for where he should land in the NFL.
RB6 – Cameron Skattebo, ASU (+4)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (5): 5.138
- Present Day (17): 4.101
- Trending Movement:+37
“Skattebo is a recent crowd favorite, and his ADP should rise in the near future.” Right again. Skattebo has opted out of attending the Senior Bowl to preserve the hype, now that the combine is around the corner. Gambling sites have dropped a project 40 times 4.6, which doesn’t align with a player NFL teams take in Day 2. With the adjustment, Skattebo projects to be an early 4th. I do think he’ll drop a little from this if he has a lackluster combine, but early Day 3 feels right for him.
RB7 – Dylan Sampson, Tennessee (+2)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (5): 4.138
- Present Day (15): 4.116
- Trending Movement:+22
We’re seeing many more big boards putting Dylan Sampson into the day 2 range. At this point, it’s trending for him to be sliding into the 3rd of getting drafted in the 4th. In the last article in this series, I would expect Sampson’s position to be far more of a consensus.
RB8 – Devin Neal, Kansas (-1)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (8): 4.114
- Present Day (12): 4.128
- Trending Movement: -14
Devin Neal’s stock continues to be polarizing, with half the boards having him as a mid-Day 3 candidate and the other half thinking he’s a Day 2 candidate. He is very exciting, a player to keep your eye on with a wide range of possibilities—a roller coaster of opinions.
RB9 – Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma St. (-3)
- Pre-season (11): 2.34
- Mid-season (6): 2.52
- Soft Declaration Deadline (9): 3.96
- Present Day (13): 4.132
- Trending Movement: -36
I expect a more drastic drop in how this season has been, with two more chances to build back his draft stock coming from the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine.
General RB Thoughts
Unfortunately, I had to end it there; many RBs show up on between 2-3 mock drafts. The sample size feels too small to bother listing; it feels like malpractice. Here are just some random findings:
- Mock drafters are following NFL trends by keeping six RBs within Day 2. I still believe this to be a strong class with good value on Day 3.
- As of 1/20/25, Ollie Gordon only made one more appearance inside the top 100 of a big board.
- DJ Giddens has some fans holding the line with seven of his nine big board appearances placing him in the 3rd or 4th.
- Kyle Monangai has fallen off the big boards, failing to appear in a top 150 for a few weeks now and not receiving any bowl invites.
- There is a ton of variation outside of the top seven RBs, with every writer having a ‘my guy’ they want to throw into the 3rd round. Personally, I love diverse opinions.
- Trevor Etienne & Kaleel Mullings found themselves in 9 big boards with the majority placing him in the 5th-6th range.
- Damien Martinez has appeared in eight big boards; all but one have placed him in the 4th.
- RJ Harvey has appeared in nine big boards and averaged 4th round placement.
- Brashard Smith, Jordan James, and Bhayshul Tuten have all appeared in less than ten big boards but are relatively consistent in showing up in the middle of Day 3.
- Syracuse LeQuint Allen has made five appearances, with only one, making him a very late 3rd rounder.
- Players that have just fallen off radars: Raheim Sanders, Kyle Monangai, Donovan Edwards, Woody Marks, Tahj Brooks, and Jarquez Hunter. All these players should be viewed as late Day 3 / UDFA considerations unless they have a surprisingly good NFL combine performance
Wide Receivers
WR1 – Travis Hunter, Colorado
- Pre-season (14): 1.05
- Mid-Season (9): 1.01
- Soft Declare Deadline (14): 1.01
- Present Day (35): 1.01
- Trending Movement: N/A
There’s just no groundbreaking analysis here.
WR2 – Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona
- Pre-season (14): 1.11
- Mid-Season (9): 1.06
- Soft Declare Deadline (14): 1.06
- Present Day (35): 1.09
- Trending Movement: N/A
There will be a small drop-off, but it is safe to expect that he will make the top 12. It all depends on the team’s needs at this point.
WR3 – Luther Burden, Missouri
- Pre-season (14): 1.08
- Mid-Season (9): 1.07
- Soft Declaration Deadline (14): 1.14
- Present Day (35): 1.19
- Trending Movement: -5
Luther consistently finds himself in the 10-15 range or the 27-32 range on big boards. Regardless, it’s safe to say the consensus believes him to be a first-round WR.
WR4 – Emeka Egbuka, Ohio St. (+1)
- Pre-season (13): 1.20
- Mid-season (9): 1.23
- Soft Declaration Deadline (14): 1.23
- Present Day (35): 1.22
- Trending Movement: +1
There has been practically no movement in the player evaluation of Emeka Egbuka since the pre-season.
WR5 – Matthew Golden, Texas (+11)
- Present Day (30): 2.37
- Trending Movement: ++
Matthew Golden’s playoff run put him on every radar, and he finds himself valued between the late first and early 2nd.
WR6 – Elic Ayomanor, Stanford (+1)
- Pre-season (6):2.48
- Mid-Season (5): 2.64
- Soft Declaration Deadline (9): 2.57
- Present Day (23): 3.68
- Trending Movement: -11
There is no real change; very consistent. I expect him to stay in this range.
WR7 – Tre Harris, Ole Miss (-1)
- Pre-season (13): 3.65
- Mid-Season (6): 2.45
- Soft Declaration Deadline (12): 2.47
- Present Day (21): 3.70
- Trending Movement: -23
The right thought process on where Tre Harris will land is probably between the last two updates. I fully expect him to land in the late 2nd to early 3rd range.
WR8 – Isaiah Bond, Texas (-3)
- Pre-season (9): 2.39
- Mid-Season (6): 1.21
- Soft Declaration Deadline (14): 2.33
- Present Day (19): 3.80
- Trending Movement: -47
Skepticism about Bond is rampant. While everyone acknowledges the ceiling, the cost is widely varying. This is one of the players whose stock will truly be impacted at the combine.
WR9 – Jalen Royals, Utah St. (-1)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (10): 3.67
- Present Day (18): 3.88
- Trending Movement: -21
We have to catch another look at Jalen Royals during Senior Bowl Practice week. Judging by the movement, I would assume evaluators are hoping for a little bit more.
WR10 – Jayden Higgins, Iowa St. (-1)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (8): 3.89
- Present Day (16): 3.84
- Trending Movement: +5
A few outliers have him in the 4th round, but the large majority are steady with evaluating him to be a late 2nd- 3rd round pick.
WR11 – Xavier Restrepo, Miami (+1)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (12): 4.101
- Present Day (19): 3.85
- Trending Movement: +16
Alright, an odd prospect to have varying opinions on during the initial post-season, but he’s settled in the 3rd round in this update, and that feels right to me.
WR12 – Jack Bech, TCU (+5)
- Present Day (20): 3.88
- Trending Movement: ++
Jack Bech is this year’s clear winner at the Senior Bowl, and since that performance, he has been on every big board with Day 2. Expect his position to rise again in the next update.
WR13 – Tez Johnson, Oregon (-2)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (8): 3.98
- Present Day (14): 3.90
- Trending Movement: +8
It should be concerning he has only shown up in rough half of the big boards, but when he is present it tends to be in the middle of the 3rd round.
WR14 – Savion Williams, TCU (+1)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (7): 4.113
- Present Day (16): 3.93
- Trending Movement: +20
He opted out of attending the Senior Bowl. He will be doing drills at the combine and is spoken of as an athletic freak so this upward trend could continue. Patriots, please do not draft him.
WR10 – Tory Horton, Colorado St.
- Pre-season (6):2.43
- Mid-season (7): 2.66
- Present Day (7): 3.90
- Trending Movement: -24
Tory Horton continues to trend down in value, and I fully expect this to continue. Horton’s name appears less in mock drafts; his future seems moving in the negative direction.
WR15 – Jaylin Noel, Iowa St. (+3)
- Present Day (12): 3.98
- Trending Movement: +
Jaylin Noel slides in as the last Day 2 receiver, making the upcoming combine performance highly impactful to him to hold onto this spot.
General WR Thoughts
Same as the RBs, I had to end it there; many WRs show up on between 2-3 mock drafts. The sample size feels too small to bother listing; it feels like malpractice at this point. Here are just some random findings:
- It’s a very weak WR class. It is the top five and then a big tier drop, but we have a solidified group.
- Texas Matthew Golden finally caught the people’s eye and exploded from being an afterthought to a top prospect.
- Illinois’s Pat Bryant and Maryland’s Tai Felton find themselves consistently in the 4th-5th round following their Senior Bowl performances.
- Colorado State’s Tory Horton floats around Day 3, but he probably has the most to gain/lose since being out of the spotlight due to injury.
Tight Ends
TE1 – Tyler Warren, Penn State (+1)
- Pre-season (3): 2 46
- Mid-season (4): 2.50
- Soft Declaration Deadline (14): 1.20
- Present Day (35): 1.13
- Trending Movement: +7
I don’t think it’s possible for this guy to go any higher.
TE2 – Colston Loveland, Michigan (-1)
- Pre-season (13): 1.19
- Mid-season (9): 1.22
- Present Day (13): 1.23
- Present Day (33): 1.21
- Trending Movement: +2
Steady as it comes.
TE3 – Elijah Arroyo (+3)
- Present Day (22): 2.62
- Trending Movement: +
Elijah Arroyo is seen as a bigger winner at the Senior Bowl, and it’s reflecting.
TE4 – Harold Fannin, BGSU (-1)
- Pre-season (1): 5.146
- Mid-Season (3): 3.66
- Soft Declaration Deadline (11): 3.65
- Present Day (21): 3.77
- Trending Movement: -12
The fallout from a poor Senior Bowl performance has not fully been reflected in the big boards; he could slip further down them. The Combine will be important for Harold Fannin’s stock.
TE5 – Mason Taylor, LSU (-)
- Present Day(8): 3.91
- Present Day (20): 3.79
- Trending Movement: +12
Another Senior Bowl winner, but I expected a bigger jump than this.
TE6 – Gunner Helm (-2)
- Soft Declaration Deadline (9): 3.84
- Present Day (19): 3.83
- Trending Movement: +1
