Like I’ve done with quarterbacks, I wanted to take a look at wide receivers and dig into ADP versus the ideal receiver archetype. As Underdog Fantasy drafts draw nearer, I want to continue creating buckets of players that I find valuable and fit the mold of what a successful player looks like. I grabbed the top 30 receivers being taken in recent P4 only drafts and scored them based on the following factors:
-Are they a WR1 or battling for that role?
-Do they play outside or in the slot?
-Is their quarterback proven?
-Will their offense throw for 250+ pass yards?
This is what I’ve found…
Slot Receiver ADP
It’s been discussed in the past, but it’s worth mentioning again. The majority of your top 10 and top 25 receivers in 2025 will come from a guy who plays out wide. Last year, eight out of ten saw 50% or better snaps out wide, while top 25 receivers played out wide 68% of the time. Of the top 30 I looked at, 21 played out wide (70%). Congrats drafters! We’re on the right path here.
Antonio Williams just missed the cut last year and this year, with his 60% slot rate in 2024. He’s being drafted among the top 5-6 receivers and may be on the edge of his ceiling. I think you could argue that last season was his best case because of the stud freshmen, TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco, being quiet in their first month or two of college football. And with that, he finished WR9 on the season. This insanely talented receiver room might be too good to give us a top 10 wide out unless Cade Klubnik picks a favorite or throws for 30-35 touchdowns.
4 WR2s Taken High
As discussed on Ballin’ with My Bestie, there weren’t many successful WR2s in fantasy last year. Of the top 25 receivers in 2024, just four of them were WR2s. And when you look deeper at those WR2s, they came from offenses that were extremely unique/impressive.
Colorado had Travis Hunter and LaJohntay Wester both finish in the top 25, thanks to their combined 25 receiving touchdowns. They saw just over 46% of the team’s targets, which averaged 318 yards per game. Syracuse shocked us all with its insane passing game, which averaged 370 yards per game! Their top two receivers saw 230 combined targets.
Iowa State wasn’t as pass-happy, but they were successful enough (256 ypg) and gave their top two guys 58.3% of targets. Finally, TCU’s Savion Williams and Jack Bech finished in the top 25 thanks to their passing attack, which averaged 313 yards per game, and Savion (WR2), who rushed for over 300 yards and six touchdowns.
Now, when you look at the WR2s being drafted (TJ Moore, Bryant Wesco, Carnell Tate, and Eric Singleton Jr.), which of them will be a part of the above? Tate will be a high-floor guy, but the Buckeyes’ passing attack likely isn’t averaging 300+ yards per game.
Clemson’s passing attack is going to be top 20 in 2025, but two guys are fighting to be the WR2, and it’s quite likely that the wealth will spread around quite a bit between their top three wideouts (Antonio Williams overdrafted?).
Eric Singleton Jr. does not need to be discussed, as we are all aware that Jackson Arnold does not have the arm talent as of 2025 to produce two top wide receivers in an offense that doesn’t provide high volume.
RIP Trebor Pena
Pena’s fall in drafts will be interesting to watch, but make no mistake about it, there will be a drop. I included him here because it’s a recent move, and to give everyone a look at how much of an impact moving from Syracuse to Penn State is.
At Syracuse, he would have been the type of slot receiver to take a shot on due to volume and what we saw out of him last year. Sure, the quarterback play is unproven, whether it’s Steve Angelli or Rickie Collins, but the offensive volume would have been worth the shot (especially with such a thin receiver room).
4 for 4
There are only three receivers in my mind that bat a thousand when it comes to my desired metrics: Jordyn Tyson, Eric McAlister, and Chase Sowell. Considering Tyson’s 2024 season, he may have the highest floor and upside of any receiver in the P4. And not surprisingly, he’s being drafted that way as a top 3 WR lock in every draft.
Looking at McAlister, he’s being paid respect, as well as a top 6-7 pick off the board in every draft, which typically costs owners a mid-to-late second-round pick. Sowell may be the value here as he transfers from East Carolina to Iowa State. During the 2024 season, he averaged nearly 20 yards per catch, caught a touchdown in three of his last four games, and is transferring over to Iowa State, where they took another “lower” level receiver in Jayden Higgins and made him a very valuable receiver for fantasy.
Mindless Thoughts
The start of the 2025 offseason has given us some good ADP for wideouts as discussed above. The slot rates feel right while WR2s are being taken aggressively, but also, there aren’t that many in the top 30. Which players stand out as potential great values, or which receivers are seeing their ADP be a bit aggressive?
Where Emmett Mosley and Ryan Wingo are drafted in these next few drafts will be of great interest to me. Most believe Mosley is going to be the guy, but it’s certainly not a lock by any means. Will Wingo’s ADP drop, thus giving us a great buy-low opportunity? He plays out wide and has a quarterback in Arch Manning that could easily be a Heisman finalist. That Longhorns offense is going to be very good, so grabbing their potential WR1 in rounds 5-7 feels like an incredible shot to take.
I’d like to see the USC offense be a little more concentrated in terms of targets, but I do think Ja’Kobi Lane has some upside to him if you don’t mind doing some projecting. He has an excellent connection with Jayden Maiava, catching seven touchdowns from him in his last three games.
In 12 games last season, he caught 12 touchdown passes, but, like Cam Coleman, much of his production came in the final three games of the year. My personal projections have him around a stat line of 60/800/8, which translates to 13.2 fantasy points per game, or WR30 in 0.5PPR scoring, last season. If he can get to 12 touchdowns again, though, he’s WR18 on the year. Is it a big leap of faith to project him for 12 touchdowns? Potentially, and what makes things scary is that he’s being taken around WR20 in P4 drafts. Do we want to have to project a player to make a leap, and even then, it’s likely he just hits value at that point? I’ve taken Lane plenty in the past, so I can be a believer, but I’m starting to come around on proper ADP, and he’s pushing it right now.
