Every year, CFF players clamour for the next ‘big thing’ at the RB position. While a history of prior production isn’t a guarantee, these 12 systems are a good place to start when looking for value.
Great, so he’s a degenerate. That means he’s capable of anything.
– Pete Campbell, Mad Men
While most College Football fans focus on meaningless things like ‘winning’ and the ‘CFB playoffs’, elite CFB fans find themselves enamoured with the mechanics of predicting which systems will produce the most productive CFB players.
If you’re a CFF player, you already know how important the RB position is. Thankfully for us, some systems exist within CFB that exhibit patterns of usage and production that offer a logical place to start when attempting to forecast where the yards and TDs will be gained in the upcoming season.
Today, I have prepared notes on six such systems (with six more coming in Pt. II). This list is not meant to be exhaustive, as there are other notable systems for this position that are not covered in this article.
Bryant Vincent, ULM
ULM head coach Bryant Vincent has flown under the radar these past few seasons, but that will likely change this year. Ahmad Hardy, the former ULM Warhawk turned Ole Miss Rebel, had a terrific freshman season under Vincent’s tutelage. Hardy surpassed 240 carries and ran for over 1,000 yards in 12 appearances.
But the list of pigs under Vincent goes far beyond Hardy’s 2024 campaign. Names like Jacorrey Merritt at New Mexico and DeWayne McBride at UAB round out some of Vincent’s best works over the last half-decade. Vincent’s preference is clear: he usually wants to run the football with one runner to spearhead that approach.
Who will take over for Hardy this year? Well, there are a few names to keep tabs on. True freshman D’Shawn Ford comes in with the intention to replace Hardy. ULM also brought in South Alabama transfer Braylon McReynolds and FCS transfer Zach Palmer Smith from Richmond. Whether it’s the true frosh or a veteran transfer, it seems likely that one runner will be near 200 carries again in 2025.
Gus Malzahn, FSU
Malzahn pulled a Chip Kelly this offseason, transitioning from FBS head coach to FBS offensive coordinator at a bigger program. Formerly of UCF and Auburn, Malzahn’s list of pigs includes the likes of RJ Harvey, Isaiah Bowers’ yards and multiple TDs, and Auburn’s Tre Mason.
Malzahn made it clear that he’ll feed a pig if there’s one worthy on the roster. Unfortunately, his new boss, Mike Norvell, has had a steady track record of committees at FSU since his arrival. Maybe Malzahn’s presence can pull some Memphis inspiration out of Norvell in 2025.
For those who are unaware, Norvell was the head coach of the Tigers in the 2010s. His offenses produced several productive RB seasons with that program. Notably, Darrell Henderson Jr. almost hit 2,000 yards under Norvell.
FSU’s RB depth chart is pretty bare at the moment. Jaylin Lucas will return from a season-ending injury. Kam Davis, a former high 4-star recruit from South Georgia, enters his second year. There is the veteran, Roydell Williams, who also returns. Freshman enrolee Ousmane Kromah (also known as OJ da OusMANE) will arrive in the summer.
One notable name brought in during the spring period was former 4-star and OU Sooner Gavin Sawchuk. He had a deadly stretch of performances to end the 2023 campaign, but was a total bust in 2024. A move to the ACC could be just the boon he’s been looking for.
Chris Klieman, Kansas State
Klieman has done a fantastic job with the Kansas State Wildcats. Among his patterns on offence is the propensity to lean on one runner. Deuce Vaughn was one of my favourite players in 2022, and of course, there was the great DJ Giddens, who took off in 2024.
Colorado transfer and Sunflower state native Dylan Edwards announced himself properly in the Wildcats’ bowl game, taking the lion’s share of carries and scoring multiple times (via the air and the ground). It would appear that 2025 will be his year to take off in this backfield. Former JuCo RB and brief ULM transfer Antonio Martin will also arrive this spring.
Spencer Danielson, Boise State
This one is more of a team-centric pattern, which admittedly is a dangerous line of thinking. Danielson was in his first year as the head coach last season, and Dirk Koetter, the OC, who briefly announced that he was retiring, has decided to give it another go.
When looking at the program as a whole, there is a rich history of productive tailbacks over the last 15+ years. Going back to 2009, only one season (excluding the COVID year) saw a BSU rusher fail to clear 1000 yards. That is 14 out of the last 15 full seasons where the Broncos have had an RB clear the thousand-yard mark.
Usually, I advocate against following program-specific traits, because after all, the staff creates these patterns. The school itself is just brick and land. There aren’t any traits there.
Boise State is probably worth a pass, akin to what Wisconsin used to be. My reasoning is that there is probably some kind of institutional top-down philosophy regarding how the program should look on offence. Otherwise, it’s hard to explain such a strong pattern across multiple different staffs.
Sire Gaines, the young star, still isn’t practicing. Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod has apparently been impressive all spring, and Jambres Dubar has also returned to the fold after a hiatus due to injury.
Sherrone Moore, Michigan
Michigan’s three year streak of 1000-yard rushers came to an end in 2024, but I blamed that wanker Donovan Edwards more than anything. If he lived up to his recruiting pedigree, he probably would have been the 20-30 carry player for the Wolverines this year that we all hoped.
Instead, it was converted LB Kalel Mullings who led the team in rushing. But both of those players move on in 2025. Alabama transfer Justice Haynes figures to be involved in the rotation, as does rising sophomore Jordan Marshall. Will it be like 2024 all over again with two rushers splitting carries? Hopefully not…
Tim Lester, Iowa
Lester immediately made his presence known upon his arrival in the Iowa program by producing an offense that saw its first 1,000-yard rusher since 2017. Lester had previously been the head coach of Western Michigan, where his offense produced a 1,000-yard season almost every year during his six-year stint.
Kaleb Johnson was everything you want in a CFF RB and more. With him moving on, there will be a lot of eyes on this backfield for 2025. Jaziun Patterson and Kamari Moulton are the top two competing for starting duties. Moulton was actually listed as the starter to open the 2024 season, but subsequently lost that spot when KJ went nuclear. In fact, Lester, who had spent time with Green Bay in the NFL, compared Moulton to long-time Packer RB Aaron Jones.
Moulton is from Florida and is apparently very shifty. I like that profile and hope he takes a big step forward in 2025.
Stay tuned for Part Two!
FYI, in addition to the work I do at C2C, I also do CFF stuff over here:
