A big goal in C2C leagues is to identify talent that can produce at the college level while also having a future shot at the NFL level. Similar to the process for quarterbacks, I examine a few metrics that seem to relate to the NFL landscape of running backs we value.
The process through which we analyze running backs today will be a blend of data work I have done as Approaching the Pros and the athletic metrics that Campus2Canton has developed.
Data Points
For the data, I will use their high school production scores, high school recruiting scores, recruit types, and Year 1 zero metric scores. The production component will focus on a 0-100 scale based solely on their production as juniors and seniors. The recruit scores will include factors like conference and recruit rankings for their final high school scores.
Recruit types for running backs break their weight into three categories: feature back size, role players, and satellite types. The last part of Year 1 Zero Metric inspired me from what Campus2Canton did for receivers. It matters that running backs beat minimally involved stats on their offenses. My Y1Z metric scores ranged from 0-5 based on how many of the following categories they passed: 20 rush attempts, 100 rush yards, five catches, 30 receiving yards, and two offensive touchdowns.
With the athletic traits of running backs, I use two aspects that they offer to narrow down which ones meet the athleticism standards of NFL guys. The first component we will use is the star index rating. Straight off the website, it explains how the index predicts star potential by combining diverse athletic data for advanced position-specific analysis. These scores are based on current data and can fluctuate, but provide a solid signal for NFL upside. The other metric is maximum MPH, which is measured to know guys can break away from long runs without getting caught all the time. Let’s start with the NFL players now.
NFL Running Backs of Interest
I tried to approach running back a little differently since most leagues want multiple of these guys on each starting roster. A top 50-person overview is a good way to show it all. Let me do a quick breakdown of noting trends here.
Most NFL guys we care about were entering college in the 190+ pound range. The recruit type confirms the conventional wisdom that most of these running backs do not gain a ton of weight. The high school production matters here, as evidenced by the breakdown.
Most guys met the minimal threshold of 70 or above. Even if we raise the floor to 75, that would still keep 32 of these top 50 NFL names. If we focus on the top names, even that threshold hits 21 of the top 25. For the recruit score, see that most guys are above the 75 threshold, which incorporates a few additional factors such as conference attending, recruit type, and recruit service numbers. Because of some of the conditions, the floor is 60 here to account for going to lower places or starting a little smaller.
For the Year 1 Zero Metric, we see that most everyone is meeting 4 or 5 of the five conditions they are judged by in year 1. Only Kenneth Walker and Kaleb Johnson sit in the top 25 with scores of three. For the Year 1 zeros, I think it is important to look at the context, but note that most zeros are not drafted highly. It gets a little too subjective if we exclude various cases, but each manager can consider cases like Mixon, Kamara, Skattebo, and RJ Harvey as outlier cases when managing their C2C rosters.
With the athleticism, it is no shocker that we get almost everyone above the thresholds of 0.70 on the star index and 21 max MPH. These players help provide updated metrics for both categories as they play in college or at the combine for the star index rating. It is unlikely that MPH changes much, but I noted a small second tier of each with a star index rating in the 0.6 range and an MPH of at least 20.5 or better. Because players can improve their athleticism slightly in college strength and conditioning programs, I will use the 0.6-star index and 20.5 MPH as my cutoffs for the next part. Let me carry this over to the college guys we value.
College Guys To Note
On the college side, there is a breakdown of how these 92 names stack up versus the NFL side on the group breakdown. With respect to the work at Campus2Canton and my database, we won’t see actual scores but groupings instead.
While we do have some upside across this landscape, the breakdown shows us that we are facing a limited supply of those who will meet the standards of the NFL-level names.
For our first group, I went through each column and filtered down to the names who passed the minimum thresholds of each aspect (except Y1Z Metric for the 2028 class). This gave me twenty-three names to note across the next three draft classes with some of the top names included along the top of each group. Singleton, Haynes, Durham, Peoples, Kromah, Davidson, and Jackson are often near the top of the ranks so it is encouraging to see them be included here.
The other names on this list each have some potential to become bigger names as opportunities present themselves. The 2028 class includes several favorites of the community, with Clarizio, Davis, Mabson, and McGill as “my guy”. Shekai-Mills Knight lacks data for the production aspect, and he could fall into this group for now. For C2C, take some of these guys to roster as their odds at cost could be beneficial down the road. The good thing is out of these 92 names, I will not be making any lists of guys who fail all five components since that is a group of zero.
However, I can confirm these six names failed all aspects except the Year 1 zero metric. Donaldson and Diggs are in backup roles so not a whole lot to glean. Hankerson is a great CFF player because of his volume and schedule, but that is the only expectation. Harden and Brown may be the lead guys at their schools but do not overvalue them. Harden at SMU could be a good play for CFF value, but he is no more than a Day 3 bet as of today.
Kyson Brown may get the first nod to help replace Skattebo’s role, but he is likely in a capped ceiling committee. The name that worries me most is Davion Gause, who has climbed up the ranks this offseason so far as the guy at North Carolina. He was inefficient last year as a freshman and lacks a history of being a big producer from high school or the athletic traits to make it to the pros.
The slow starters group here offers some positive notes as they passed all metrics except falling somewhere between 0, 1, and 2 on the Year 1 Zero Metric. Wilcox finally picked it up some in 2024 but may face a challenge for 2025 touches. Joyner has been stuck at USC behind Woody Marks and Marshawn Lloyd, but he gets a chance now at Texas Tech. Marshall and Young were true freshmen in 2024 who did not play a lot and now still seem buried in 2025 behind others.
This small group showed production in high school and athletic traits. However, they all failed the recruit scores mostly due to size and competition level. All these names did poorly in year 1 except for Desmond Reid who was balling out at Western Carolina. Hughes and Reid offer some highly projected CFF value in 2025. Fields may join as a sneaky lead man for Oklahoma State as I had to mention in the article. Sawchuk transferred to Florida State so I am unsure of his role with everyone else there.
For the group here focusing on the recruit score and star index passing players, there are two subsets. The ones on the left all proved themselves at the high school level and have garnered attention in C2C leagues. The one on the right was well below the mark for high school stats and comes with some concerns as to what role they offer even now. Baugh and Lewis are the higher-rated ones but lack high-end potential.
Now for this next group, we finally see some bigger assets with Jeremiyah Love, Isaac Brown, and Bryson Washington. It is good to see that Love and Washington (even Price) were close to the cutoff mark for my recruit scores. With the production both have shown, I am still in on them. The right side offers some explosive names if they have developed. Isaac Brown, Lyle, and Allah all showed promise in year 1 so they are staying on my radar.
This next group will be disliked for failing athletic traits. The high school background was encouraging for them so buying in on these guys for at least college production can be decent. With the right college development, they can make it to the pros and improve their testing numbers to much more appropriate NFL standards.
While the production scores and star index fell below the desired levels, these groups did have passing recruit scores and adequate speed. Ott and Frazier built on that with solid initial years in college so it is no surprise that people value them. The rest show a chance of falling apart.
Each of these names was able to at least pass production and the speed that typically shows up at the NFL level. Darius Taylor and CJ Baxter have built up some support for NFL draft capital, but the rest of this group is more unknown. Jam Miller and Dubar may lead their rooms in 2025 for a chance to showcase themselves.
The 2027 group has a few names I like, with Donelson and Gaines. Watson and Richard both offer some intrigue for the college production if Watson can get a bigger role. Patterson and Martin may remain buried in Year 2 after minimal freshman years. Akylin Dear enters Alabama with Jam Miller, Richard Young, and Daniel Hill as the main guys keeping him off the field. It has been quiet for him this offseason, though.
Wayshawn Parker is the exception to this list for me. He was barely used as a junior but exploded in efficiency in his senior year. His weight was a little light, but he was almost 200 pounds during his freshman year. I believe we will see the athletic traits also continue to climb as more data comes in on the former 3-star back.
The 2026 names are less appealing here as Wisner could lose some work to Clark, Baxter, Gibson, and even Manning in 2025. Udoh did well for the Army but may not be featured as much at Arizona State. We also know nothing about Udoh as a pass catcher. Smothers made a good call to transfer to NC State for 2024 with very efficient metrics to show for the full season. For 2025, Smothers and Bailey should combine for most of the carries, with a touch of Jayden Scott supposedly.
This last group falls into weird settings, as two were only good recruit scores, and Year 1. The next two fell into mediocrity on recruit scores and lower Year 1 metrics. Waymond Jordan went JUCO, so it is no surprise his numbers are bad across the board with the data we have on him. Le’Veon Moss went P4 out of the gate, so I am not sure what we do with him besides avoid. Because of the length of this article, I will have to leave off the 2026 names to know. Check out the work we both do instead to help find out.
