Last season in these Underdog drafts, we saw late running back options become uber-productive talents who led teams into the playoffs. This week, I wanted to look at some of the late-round running back battles people are taking a stab at and determine if they were even worth the flier. Sometimes we get so fixated on the upside of drafting a potential starter and RB1 in the 19th round, but we forget that sometimes that role, even if we know who the guy is, isn’t worth all that much. Let’s take a look…
Damari Alston (223) vs. Durell Robinson (239.7)
Surprisingly, Auburn didn’t hit the portal hard for a bell cow/star running back. Yes, Durell Robinson came in after a good season at UConn, but he’s not what you’re expecting when it comes to a gaping hole at a major SEC program. Alston is the leading returning producer, but he wasn’t called upon often in 2024, rushing just 52 times for 276 yards. Robinson was a part of a committee with the Huskies, generating 107 yards on 107 attempts (6.8 YPC).
Robinson had the better production, but at a smaller level, while Alston has the system experience. Both are essentially free in your drafts and come with bye weeks that are helpful (6/12) for those trying to shoot for upside and bye week protection at the position.
While Jarquez Hunter was a beast in 2024, rushing for over 1,200 yards, is it wise to invest in this position? Are we taking a shot at a role that will make it worth it? In 2023, Hunter ran for over 900 yards and seven touchdowns on 159 attempts (12 games). And before that, Hugh Freeze had just one season where a running back broke 140 attempts OR over 800 rushing yards. And that season was with Stephen Calvert and his –3.8 YPC under center for the Flames. This system typically leans RBBC.
If you’re drafting one of this duo, just be sure it sticks around the final round or two of your drafts as you’re taking a shot at 900 yards and eight or so touchdowns as the likely best-case scenario.
Ismail Mahdi (125.1) vs. Kedrick Reescano (227.5)
With Noah Fifita under center, this rushing attack will be all about the running backs. While 150 attempts for Quali Conley in 2024 doesn’t seem like a huge number, it accounted for 48.8% of attempts overall. This is a relatively high number when looking at the whole season. Conley ran for eight touchdowns and 744 attempts on the year overall.
In 2025, we’re looking at a Mahdi versus Reescano battle that I don’t believe has a winner yet. But if you look at the ADP, Mahdi is clearly the guy. You can blame the ADP that we started with, which had Mahdi significantly higher than Reescano, but that hasn’t changed since. Mahdi was uber productive in two seasons at Texas State and has transferred up for his 2025 campaign. Reescano, on the other hand, is in his second year in the offense after a freshman season at Ole Miss.
Conley was heavily used in the passing game last season, but he garnered only a -1.9 ADOT. Reescano in this same system had a -0.9 ADOT. Ismail Mahdi, while at Texas State in 2024, caught 24 passes in 12 games with a -0.8 ADOT. Even though Mahdi has done significantly more in the passing game in his career (78 receptions), it doesn’t appear to be anything that a guy like Reescano can’t replace.
This is a situation where the buzz around spring has leaned more toward Reescano than Mahdi, and there’s no true data that screams Mahdi as the guy. So, I’ll be targeting Reescano late and avoiding Mahdi at his cost. I imagine the ADP would have to drop into the 15-16 round range for me to consider him at this rate.
Nate Palmer (199.7) vs. Kevorian Barnes (239.7) vs. Trent Battle (N/A)
This TCU running back battle is one I feel pretty convicted on. Earlier this offseason, it was a topic of debate with Barnes being the guy that interested us late once drafts opened. We always mentioned though that while Barnes/Battle seemed to be atop the imaginary spring practice depth chart, it was Nate Palmer that was always getting the buzz. Now, I’m confident that Palmer anywhere near the 15th-16th round is an auto-click in your drafts. Steven Johnson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram repeatedly discussed the buzz he was receiving.
Myles Montgomery (203.8) vs. Jaden Nixon (231.4)
Scott Frost returns to UCF, and Gus Malzahn now heads over to FSU. With these changes, we may be over our skis drafting either of these two UCF running backs when you look at the usage for the top running back in Frost’s six non-COVID seasons: 139, 122, 155, 143, 112, and 218. And only one of those seasons resulted in a 1,000-yard season (155 attempts, surprisingly not the 218).
There is a massive hole to fill with RJ Harvey off to the NFL. Myles Montgomery was productive in limited usage last season (51/293/3) while Jaden Nixon was even better, but in MAC play (144/925/12). Montgomery seems to be the most talented of the two and has the returning production, but there’s a new coaching staff in town.
Nixon transferring up (like Mahdi at Arizona) isn’t easy to do, typically showing more warts than we realize with that transfer. This is a situation where we are making a 50/50 bet to win an average RB1 role. I’ve taken Montgomery once or twice so far as my final running back in the final rounds, but I won’t be doing it much more with a deeper look at usage for Frost RB1s.
