Week 1 is mostly in the books and we are all just thankful that college football is officially back! While the week still has games on Sunday and Monday (I’m writing this Sunday morning/early afternoon), I have to ignore them for purposes of getting this article written and edited by early Monday morning.
Although the first week of college football can be difficult to evaluate, my job each week is to comb through the info and pull out the info that is going to help you win your leagues. You’ll see some categories pop up each week (target leaders, freshman snaps) and some that will be more pertinent to that specific week of action. I must also note that I record a short podcast The Collective, our NIL and All-22 member-only podcast feed where I expound a bit on this article and put it in audio format for those that prefer that over reading.
Without further ado…
1. Week 1 Target Leaders
Week 1 Targets only:
| NAME | SCHOOL | TARGETS | Total Team Att | TGT % |
| Easton Messer | FAU | 19 | 62 | 30.65% |
| Jacquon Gibson | UMASS | 16 | 40 | 40.00% |
| Jordyn Tyson | Arizona State | 16 | 38 | 42.11% |
| Jayce Brown | Kansas State | 16 | 43 | 37.21% |
| Michael Trigg | Baylor | 16 | 48 | 33.33% |
| Kenny Odom | UTEP | 15 | 36 | 41.67% |
| Dorian Thomas | New Mexico | 13 | 49 | 26.53% |
| Germie Bernard | Alabama | 12 | 43 | 27.91% |
| Danny Scudero | San Jose State | 12 | 44 | 27.27% |
| Lewis Bond | Boston College | 12 | 39 | 30.77% |
| Chase Hendricks | Ohio | 12 | 31 | 38.71% |
One of the biggest advantages that can be exercised early in the season is identifying the offenses that are going to be the most pass happy and the players who are likely to receive a significant portion of those targets on a weekly basis. That’s also easier said than done.
Florida Atlantic and Easton Messer was an obvious one coming into the season and it played out in a big way week one. Even in a closer game, I’d still anticipate heavy pass volume (although maybe not 62 attempts each week). I’d also be looking to see if there’s a consistent WR2 in this offense, but no one presented themselves this week. Dominique Henry had 8 targets but 7 other players had between three and six targets. I’ll keep you posted on a WR2 here if one emerges in the coming weeks.
I won’t bore you with some of the bigger names on this list, as guys like Jordyn Tyson are likely unobtainable, at least not without spending big. Players that I would circle that are still relatively affordable (and could even be on waivers):
- Lewis Bond: Boston College likely won’t have the weekly volume that some other offenses will but they aren’t deep at receiver and Bond should be the main focus of the attack each week. I think 100 targets for this season is firmly in play.
- Kenny Odom: Odom is a swiss army knife weapon for UTEP and is obviously the best skill position guy on their roster. He should see consistent touch volume through a variety of ways.
As for players I need to see do it again? Baylor TE Michael Trigg tops that list. His 16 targets this week doubled his previous career high, and in four years of college football, including last season in this same system at Baylor, he’s only topped six targets twice. Plus, Baylor has other quality receivers around him. If you can sell Trigg this week for a strong haul, I’d be tempted to do that. There are other TEs who performed well this week who can be had for free to take his roster spot (Jaxxon Warren and Gabe Burkle, amongst others).
2. Freshman Snap Counts
| NAME | SCHOOL | SNAPS | TOTAL TEAM | SNAP % |
| Bryce Underwood | Michigan | 64 | 64 | 100% |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele | California | 62 | 63 | 98% |
| Malik Washington | Maryland | 60 | 81 | 74% |
| Isaiah Mizell | Arizona | 42 | 59 | 71% |
| Jalen Cooper | SMU | 47 | 68 | 69% |
| Tramell Jones | Florida | 39 | 76 | 51% |
| Jayvan Boggs | Florida State | 31 | 65 | 48% |
| Vernell Brown | Florida | 35 | 76 | 46% |
| Donovan Olugbode | Missouri | 28 | 62 | 45% |
| Husan Longstreet | USC | 26 | 58 | 45% |
| Bear Bachmeier | BYU | 30 | 68 | 44% |
| Raiden Vines-Bright | Washington | 32 | 76 | 42% |
Week 1 snap counts often require context because many games turn into blowouts quickly. That was the case for a few players on this list, including Tramell Jones and Husan Longstreet.
We spoke at length this offseason about how special this QB class could be. At one point on C2C Live, I mentioned to my co-host Matt Bruening that this could be a generational college QB class (not to be confused with a generational NFL class). I think week one gave a glimpse as to that potential. Underwood, Sagapolutele, Washington, and Bachmeier all would have played 100% of their teams’ snaps in tighter contests (Underwood achieved the feat regardless) and all looked more than competent doing so. Barring injury, that group should hold their starting spots all season.
Aside from the players who likely benefitted from blowouts, the most surprising name on this list is Isaiah Mizell. We liked Mizell much more than the services (our WR19 vs WR34 in the composite), but we did not predict this hefty snap share this early. He wasn’t terribly productive, garnering only 4 targets and 2 catches for 23 yards, but the Wildcats only threw the ball 23 times in this game and Mizell did have the most targets in the squad. He should be rostered in all C2C formats and could be a legitimate NFL prospect down the line.
Some notable names did not play any snaps this week. Michigan State RB Jace Clarizio is reportedly dealing with an injury, which is a bummer since the Spartans emptied the bench early in this one. Auburn RB Omar Mabson received hype this offseason, but it was a stretch to expect him on the field against legit P4 opposition. Oklahoma’s Elijah Thomas is perhaps the most concerning name who failed to make an appearance.
If you’d like the full list of freshman snap counts from week 1, i post a spreadsheet in the Campus2Canton discord for our NIL and All-22 members. It is updated weekly.
3. Volume Is King
We care a lot about volume for every type of fantasy football because more opportunity generally means more points. It’s as simple as that.
So which teams ran the most plays this weekend? Beware that some of these can be deceiving with weaker opponents in week 1, but it should give us an idea of how some teams want to play.
| SCHOOL | SNAPS | RUSHING | PASSING |
| FAU | 98 | 28 | 70 |
| Appalachian State | 92 | 37 | 55 |
| Indiana | 92 | 54 | 38 |
| Syracuse | 90 | 38 | 52 |
| Boise State | 87 | 29 | 58 |
| Army | 86 | 64 | 21 |
| New Mexico | 82 | 24 | 58 |
| Mississippi State | 81 | 38 | 43 |
| Maryland | 81 | 34 | 47 |
| Minnesota | 80 | 41 | 39 |
We had four teams run over 90 plays this week, which is quite the rarity. I don’t know that I’ve seen that many teams run that many plays in a single gameweek, at least not in the past three seasons. There are only a few mild surprises in this week’s top ten, but the biggest one has to be Army, who went to OT against Tarleton State. I’d expect this to be their lone appearance in this section.
Although we don’t want to make huge adjustments based on one week of data, we only get 13 weeks in a season and so decisions will need to be made in short order. The Appalachian State offense is one that I’m paying very close attention to after this performance. Not only did they run a ton of plays, their passing attack was hugely productive. QB AJ Swann attempted 46 passes and targeted Dalton Stroman (11 targets) and Jaden Barnes (8) successfully. That duo combined for over 200 yards and a touchdown. Rashod Dubinion also had himself a day, with 111 yards and a TD on the ground and another 6 targets through the air. If App State continues to run a ton of plays, those should all be priority adds.
I’ll also be keeping an eye on New Mexico’s offense. Although no one here was efficient, they did play Michigan so that shouldn’t be too concerning. TE Dorian Thomas, mentioned above, had 13 targets and Keagan Johnson had 10. Johnson is a watch list guy for now, but keep an eye on their weekly snaps moving forward.
4. Must Have Waiver Adds
I would be remiss if I did not lead this section by mentioning the fine work of my colleague, Jared Palmgren, who has already written and published a waiver wire article specifically for CFF leagues. Although I share many of his sentiments, I like to put my own spin on things when I write this article. As always, this is not an exhaustive list and managers should examine all available players to make sure they aren’t missing anyone. Our Roster Management Tool should be helpful for that.
I mentioned the App State offense above and will reiterate that I think this pass attack is worth targeting on waivers this week. If you desperately need QB help, AJ Swann makes a lot of sense, as do his top two receivers, Dalton Stroman and Jaden Barnes. The real target from this offense is Rashod Dubinion, who was impactful as a rusher and a receiver. There may be weeks where he hits 30 total touches, which should make him a weekly start consideration.
Speaking of bellcow backs, I’ll be putting in a few claims for Lucky Sutton this week. Sutton had 23 carries this week and finished just short of 100 yards rushing, but added 2 TDs. He also had three targets, although he didn’t do much with them. Sutton emerged as the favorite to lead this backfield during preseason camp and it looks like San Diego State is committed to getting him the ball, which is no surprise considering Sean Lewis is their head coach.
Texas State only threw the ball 24 times this week, likely due to the game script in this one. However, we like QB Brad Jackson and there should be at least one receiver who stands out this season. I don’t think we got that answer this weekend. Beau Sparks scored a ton of fantasy points, but he also only had 7 targets. 4 TDs on 7 targets is not sustainable on a weekly basis. Chris Dawn Jr. actually out-targeted Sparks but had a more modest 5/50 statline. I’d still lean Sparks as an add, but only in unlimited waiver leagues or deeper formats.
Other notable players/offenses that may be hanging out on waiver wires:
- Duke passing attack: Duke quietly chucked the ball around a ton last year but Maalik Murphy stinks, so they weren’t efficient. Darian Mensah is a significantly better player than Murphy and is capable of getting multiple receivers involved. If Que’Sean Brown or Cooper Barkate are available in your league, snag them now. There’s weekly 100+ yards and a TD upside here. Sahmir Hagans and Andrel Anthony are avoids for now.
- Western Kentucky passing attack: Don’t really need to explain this one. If either Maverick McIvor or Matthew Henry are available, unload the clip. KD Hutchinson is also worth an add.
- Utah State RB/WR Miles Davis: Davis will be used in a variety of ways this year. This week, he had 12 rush attempts and 6 targets and can be played in your RB spot.
- UAB RB Jevon Jackson: UAB ran the ball 35 times this week and Jackson got 50% of those touches. I do worry about his weekly upside if UAB does not maintain that pace.
Equally as important as making smart adds early in the season is avoiding the busts in the group. I’m watch-listing the following players, but they shouldn’t be added in anything but the deepest leagues.
Emmanuel Henderson, RB – Kansas: Yes, Henderson had a big day in a soft matchup for Kansas. And yes, there may be other games this year where his big play ability makes him an intriguing option. However, he’s yet to exceed 7 targets and this is a low volume pass attack. He’ll need to maintain insane efficiency to enter lineups. Great in best ball, but not so much otherwise.
Joe Jackson, RB – Kansas State: I promise, I don’t hate the state of Kansas, but going to the other P4 program in the Sunflower State to talk you out of adding Joe Jackson in limited waiver leagues. Dylan Edwards is likely out at least one more week, but all indications are that this will return to a committee once he re-enters the lineup.
Marvis Parrish, RB – Western Kentucky: In unlimited waiver leagues, sure I’m fine adding true freshman Marvis Parrish. However, WKU is generally committed to the pass and there just isn’t enough projectable volume on a week-to-week basis here to make Parrish a worthwhile add.
5. Injuries to Monitor
This week was one of the best I can remember regarding injuries to key players. I’m sure we will have more news pop up over the next few days, but here are a few situations we have to monitor this week:
BEHREN MORTON
Morton left Texas Tech’s game against Arkansas Pine Bluff with a leg injury. Head Coach Joey McGuire told reporters that he was fine after the game, but knee hyperextensions don’t feel great. This is one to monitor throughout the week. In his absence, Will Hammond is a playable option.
MALIK RUTHERFORD
Rutherford left Georgia Tech’s game against Colorado and did not return, but current reports suggest the injury is not serious. He’s probably not startable right now anyway until we see Georgia Tech’s pass offense improve.
JORDAN HUDSON
Hudson left early in SMU’s win and it sounds like Hudson may miss the rest of the season. He was one of the most experienced guys on the roster. True freshman Jalen Cooper may be the biggest beneficiary of less competition and more snaps.
6. First Start Jitters or First Start Glitters?
We had a lot of first time starting quarterbacks this week, or those with very limited starting experience. How did each of them perform? I’ll attempt to sum up my thoughts on each performance below in a paragraph or less.
Arch Manning is going to receive a lot of flak for his performance against Ohio State and I think it’s fair to say this wasn’t a great performance. There were some odd mechanical issues that never really popped up before, including a sidearm release that was completely inaccurate. I’m worried about those things but I honestly thought he was okay in this game. His WRs weren’t getting open consistently and this was one of the most difficult defenses he will play over the next two years. I’m not adjusting the rankings until we get a few more games and if someone is selling relatively cheap, I’m buying.
On the other side of that matchup, I thought Julian Sayin was poor. I still don’t understand how people comment on his “obvious” velocity. I see nothing noteworthy in his arm and he underthrew several receivers, including Carnell Tate on his 40 yard touchdown. I do think that his performance was mistake free, which will please Ryan Day, but he isn’t going to elevate this offense and they’ll need to scrap out more wins than we’re used to.
Malik Washington started slow but grew into his matchup against FAU and looked like an experienced quarterback by the end of this one. I still have some questions about how he’ll do under pressure (he was barely bothered all day), but this was a very encouraging start.
Ty Simpson didn’t elevate the Tide offense, but I didn’t think he played poorly in their loss to Florida State. The arm looked live and he didn’t miss many easy throws. Where he did struggle was out of structure, especially when forced to roll out of the pocket and find targets on the run. He should continue to get starts for Alabama unless the season truly goes South.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was awesome, throwing without fear and attacking downfield against decent opposition. Cal actually looked better overall than I anticipated, and their freshman QB may be a big part of that. I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll increase in value over the next four months and have bumped him up a handful of spots in my rankings.
Drake Lindsey was not a high school prospect that I thought had much upside, and I’m still not convinced that we are talking about even a future Senior or Shrine Bowl level player. But he played better than recent QBs have for Minnesota and looked like he’s good enough that the Gophers won’t have to hide him within their offense.
Bear Bachmeier was probably asked to do the least of this group, they won 69-0 over Portland State after all, but he looked steady and athletically ready for P4 level football. We’ll get more info on Bachmeier as the difficulty increases.
7. I May Be Too Low On…
Offseason rankings are such a difficult exercise because there are so many things that we simply can’t know until the games kick off. We can speculate and read camp news all we want, but beat reporters often don’t (or can’t) give us the entire story, coaches seek to gain a 2% edge by lying, and with a quarter or more of each roster turning over each year, there’s a ton to figure out. I don’t want to overreact to the opening weekend, especially with all of the blowouts, but here are some players I think I was too low on.
I’ve already mentioned some of the waiver wire guys, all of whom I was too low on, so I’ll spend this section touching on some names I haven’t mentioned yet.
Expensive Options:
- CJ Bailey (moved from QB24 to QB20). I didn’t really know if Bailey had another gear, but he looked great this weekend. Good decision making and ball placement and has the physical tools. I don’t know that he can become a first round prospect but he’ll at least be in the discussion if you want to flip him at some point.
- Justice Haynes (moved from RB6 to RB5). This isn’t a big jump but Haynes delivered on the hopes that we’ve held for him over the past two years at Alabama. It wasn’t strong competition but Haynes looks like he should solidify himself as an early Day 2 prospect in the upcoming draft.
Mid-Priced Options:
- Yasin Willis (moved from RB60 to RB50) I’m still not sure on long term pro potential here but this week likely settled any debate that Willis is the next man up for Syracuse.
- Danny Scudero (moved from WR105 to WR57). Scudero looks to be the WR1 in an offense that has been known to throw it 50 times per game. Even if he’s the WR2 in this offense, he’s an excellent option ROS.
- Mario Craver (moved from WR61 to WR55). A modest bump but he looks like he can be a significant contributor for Texas A&M. Size concerns still may limit his pro upside.
- Kewan Lacy (moved from RB37 to RB32). Another guy who barely moved but his ranking baked in the assumption that he was the starter. That looks to be the case after their week 1 matchup.
Bargain Bin Options:
- Joey Aguilar (moved from QB96 to QB83). Aguilar looked competent running this offense against average competition. He should hold this job and have some decent weeks.
