We are now one month into the season and over a third of the way through for CFF purposes. What have we learned? What can we expect moving forward? No fence riding here. Let’s get after it!
Jonah Coleman Is the RB1
The guy on the left is Jonah Coleman after winter workouts. The guy on the right is my boy Kevin from my Tuesday night bowling and beer league.
Spare me your nonsensical argument that UW hasn’t played anyone good. If you don’t think this guy is elite after transforming his body this offseason, then you clearly go to bed at 8 pm. We night owls who can’t wait to pour a drink, relax, and watch Big Ten after dark once the kids are down are ball knowers when it comes to Coleman. He is the best RB in the country. He will finish as the CFF RB1 and should be considered as one of the top RBs in the NFL draft come next spring. I’m glad the rest of you will finally get to see the new and improved Coleman this week as he faces OSU at 3:30 on CBS.
Start ‘Em If You Got ‘Em- Wide Receivers
We discussed back in Week 2 of the Pulse that you should start all RBs versus Georgia Southern, and then Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders promptly went off for 29 and 20 points against them that week. Well, we may have found the WR equivalent in SMU and Sam Houston. Again, it is a small sample size, but the CFF season is short, and we are forced to project with limited data.
In three games against FBS opponents, SMU is giving up an average of 35.2 PPG to the opposing team’s WR1. That same group of WRs – Eric McAlister, Dash Luke, and Josh Cameron- are averaging just of 9 PPG when not facing SMU.
Keep an eye on Sam Houston State for the top G5 candidate to start top WRs against. They have given up 28 to Ryan Wingo, 31.5 to Pofele Ashlock, 24.5 to Jaden Bradley, and 27.8 to Matthew Henry. I was too lazy to do the math here, but all were season highs for these players and well above their season averages.
Isaiah Sategna, Oklahoma: The Sooner WR is averaging 22 PPG over his last two weeks and appears to be a cog in the Arbuckle system. 94% of his snaps have been from the slot. So far, Sategna, Burks, and Lewis have received an overwhelming majority of the WR snaps. But what happens when Javonnie Gibson returns after the bye? It is hard to imagine the best WR in the spring, by many accounts, isn’t getting run on the boundary. Perhaps this will push Lewis to the bench more, but it is also possible that it will move Burks to the slot, where he was playing before JV Gibson’s injury, thereby eating into Sategna’s snaps. The emergence of Jaren Kanak and his flying knee at TE makes it less likely the Sooners will consistently go four-wide.
Seth McGowan, Kentucky: From one new Sooner to a former Sooner (it’s his fourth program, so he has a lot of exes). McGowan is crushing it at almost 22 PPG. Here is the problem- game script and schedule. So far, McGowan has faced two MAC opponents. UK hasn’t been game-scripted out of running the ball yet. The schedule is about to get grueling, though, with four of his next five opponents in the top 25 in rushing yards/attempt allowed, and two of them (Auburn/Texas) rank in the top 5.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: Don’t get me wrong. He’s been amazing! And the Hoosiers look like a wagon. But this is simple probability. 24.1% of his completions have gone for TDs in the last three games. That’s simply not sustainable. Just for comparison, 6% of Mendoza’s completions were TDs last year, and 13% for Kurtis Rourke in the same system. While the schedule isn’t daunting, there are some potential hiccups along the way, with games against Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State coming up.
The System Only Dreams In Total Darkness
This reference is for The National lovers out there. The idea of the Hawaii Run-N-Shoot and the Colorado State Air Raid are great in theory, but the system is absolutely broken once you shed a little light on them. “We’re in a different kind of thing now. All night you are talking to God” has to be describing Timmy Chang and Jay Norvell.
Hawaii ranks 126th in yards per play and 95th in scoring efficiency. Colorado State isn’t significantly better, ranking 101st and 103rd in those same categories, respectively. They both rank outside the top 100 in yards per pass attempt. Micah Alejado has more turnover-worthy throws than big-time throws and an ADOT of 8.5 yards. That is pretty wild, given he has been below a 60% completion rate in the last two games. But what is most alarming is his 38% pressure-to-sack rate.
If these offenses don’t pick it up soon, there is a real chance two of the most beautiful campuses will be welcoming in a new football coach for 2026.
Things I Ponder While Enjoying a Shower Beer
Could Bobby Petrino pull off a coup and take over as interim coach for Sam Pittman if the Hogs lose to Notre Dame this week? It seems wild, but also something Petrino would likely attempt.
Is Ricky Collins good enough to support this really talented group of Syracuse pass catchers? Probably not to the same degree as Angeli or McCord, but not many were confident those guys would produce like they did. I feel like maybe we see one or two WRs excel instead of the entire group of Cook, Gill, Vallari, and Ross-Simmons.
USC is good. Like really good. It is the most efficient offense in the country through 4 weeks, and D’Anton Lynn has given Lincoln a capable defense so he can focus strictly on his offense and that burnt ass brisket.
I wonder which relevant CFF player preserves the redshirt and sits out the rest of the way, starting this week? Corri Milliner certainly appears to be a prime candidate.
Cheers to Week 5. Good Luck!
