Welcome back to this year’s first installment of the NFL Draft Stock Watch —an entire article filled not with my opinion but with analysis of movement among recent big boards in the industry! Paraphrasing NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, “[I mock draft with my ears and create big boards with my eyes].” The draftniks are getting more involved after seeing how teams are trending in the NFL.
I will be focusing on big boards in the industry, NOT the mock drafts. Big Boards are created by individual player analysis, with no factors of scheme fit, team needs, or NFL rumors. Mock drafts are based on where analysts believe players will land, and I have it on good authority that quite a few of them are AI-generated with some custom picks involved. I would also like to filter out the team-specific mock drafts.
We are knee-deep in conference play, and the easy non-conference schedules are behind us. The overreaction and hype should be turning more into realism. We will look at relative movement by comparing the average big board positions from updates at the end of pre-season (8/22/25) to the time I started writing (10/21/25).
Let me point out the major fallacies in this article: Not all big boards go at least 100 picks; some are first-round-only, some are 50-player boards, some go 100-deep, and then there are the sickos doing full seven-round boards. May god bless those sickos. I must recommend that you take special notice of the volume a player is present in the big board rather than the ranking position. I will outline how many big boards each player was present in by giving the number of boards in the “().” Later in the article series, I will manually adjust for a player missing in a big board, but for now, please pay closer attention to the quantity of boards they are present on.
I will provide commentary, but these positional rankings do not reflect my personal player evaluations.
Quarterbacks
QB1 – Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (+3)
- Pre-season (10): 1.27
- Mid-Season Day (16): 1.1
HC Curt Cignetti has this offense humming, and Fernando is a primary benefactor. He’s executing the scheme perfectly, but with IU heading towards the playoffs, we will see some more formidable defenses and hopefully get to watch him operate out of structure. I don’t expect much movement in the short term, but possible moves up boards a bit.
QB2 – Dante Moore, Oregon (+6)
- Pre-season (0): N/A
- Mid-season Day (9): 1.14
Dante Moore was the picture of consistency until he faced IU, and we witnessed how he performs under pressure. It wasn’t great. However, in a weak QB class, he has a shot at maintaining a high profile. I don’t expect much movement in the short term.
QB3 – LaNorris Sellers (-2)
- Pre-season (11): 1.18
- Mid-season Day (15): 1.16
A heavy favorite among C2C analysts. He has off-platform abilities that the rest of this class lacks, but his stock will fluctuate depending on the evaluator.
QB4 – Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (-2)
- Pre-season (15): 1.18
- Mid-season Day (13): 1.21
The pocket passer is dealing with a poor supporting cast and trying to fight through injury. I consider him one of the smarter QBs in the class, but his range of outcomes is vast. I expect the community to drop his stock over the next weeks, with the only positive movement possibly coming from the NFL insider rumor mill in the off-season.
QB5 – Cade Klubnik, Clemson (-2)
- Pre-season (14): 1.20
- Mid-season Day (7): 1.27
This team retained a ton of talent, and not even a single piece changed around him. So why is he failing? Maybe he was never that good. The system QB can’t run a system; we will see him on Day 3.
QB6 – John Mateer, Oklahoma (+1)
- Pre-season (5): 3.71
- Mid-season Day (9): 1.29
Traitsy with prototypical size. An excellent recipe for the NFL. He’s coming back from injury, but a few decent games down the stretch should boost him up the boards.
QB7 – Drew Allar, Penn State (-2)
- Pre-season (13): 1.31
- Mid-season Day (9): 2.39
Allar’s growth has been stagnant since his true freshman year and folds like a lawn chair in big games. Public opinion has finally caught up to him; I believe he will continue to drop. He will always have the tools argument in his favor, but that’s not a project a team is excited to take on at this point. We have seen enough. We will see you on Day 3.
QB8 – Ty Simpson, Alabama (-)
- Pre-season (0): N/A
- Mid-season Day (8): 2.37
A very recent hype train has started in favor of Ty Simpson. He will make the most significant jump in the following article of this series.
QB9 – Sam Leavitt, Arizona State (-3)
- Pre-season (7): 3.66
- Mid-season Day (3): 2.52
Honestly, surprised at this roller coaster. Very mediocre start to the season compared to expectations. However, the underperformance by early favorites leaves a void for Simpson to jump up if quality play returns.
QB General Thoughts
- Arch Manning has only shown up on one big board since Sept. 9th, and he was 153rd overall. I don’t know if I’ve seen a faster decline since the fall of Rome.
- The early favorites to be the top prospects have underwhelmed, and now, like every year, mediocracy is propped up.
- QBs with the traits to escape the pocket and prolong the play are coveted the most in the NFL. Those players should retain their value during the start of this NFL draft process.
- Obviously, there will not be nine QBs within the first two days of the NFL draft. This list should be slimmed down in the postseason—a wide range of opinions in this part of the season.
- In this writer’s opinion, this QB class looks terrible.
Honorable Mentions
- Jayden Maiva, Carson Beck, and Darian Mensah are the next three QBs to break into this list.
- Carson Beck has the most data points out of the three. He will jump on the list in the next article.
Running Backs
RB1 – Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (-)
- Pre-season (15): 1.11
- Mid-Season Day (17): 1.12
No movement, just steady placement.
RB2 – Nick Singleton, Penn State (-)
- Pre-season (12): 2.35
- Mid-Season Day (8): 2.39
Averages haven’t moved, but note the lack of big board appearances compared to Love. I expect Singleton to continue to fall, maybe until the combine.
RB3 – Justice Haynes, Michigan (-)
- Pre-season (3): 3.68
- Mid-Season Day (6): 2.49
Justice Haynes has been one of the biggest risers, and even though he is not showing up in a ton of big boards at the moment, I do think this is the appropriate evaluation for him.
RB4 – Jonah Coleman, Washington (-)
- Pre-season (4): 4.103
- Mid-Season Day (3): 2.51
All of Jonah Coleman’s big board appearances have come in the last two weeks. He will be rising a bit more by the end of the season. However, his hype has stalled during conference play.
RB General Thoughts / Honorable Mentions
- Typically, you see a ton of names early season and mid-season. NOT THIS YEAR. This is the current state of RBs in college. Talentless. Void. Lacking.
- No other RB had three or more appearances in the big boards created during the season. Dylan Smothers is a distant RB5.
- Hopefully, the class picks up, but it looks like a recreation of the 2021 RB draft class.
Wide Receivers
WR1 – Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State (-)
- Pre-season (13): 1.16
- Mid-Season Day (16): 1.10
There’s just nowhere to go from here, and I assume he will stay in this range all the way up to the draft.
WR2 – Makai Lemon, USC (+6)
- Pre-season (7): 2.43
- Mid-Season Day (13): 1.22
Well. well. well. Lemon will end up being debated as the WR1 with Jordyn Tyson. For now, I think this is the appropriate value for Lemon, maybe a tad bit higher. I expect him to retain this position up to the draft.
WR3 – Carnell Tate, Ohio State (-)
- Pre-season (12): 1.27
- Mid-Season Day (17): 1.23
Surprised at the number of early pre-season rankings he was present in, but he is undoubtedly playing a fringe first-round WR currently. I expect his value to stay in this area.
WR4 – Denzel Boston, Washington (+3)
- Pre-season (9): 2.43
- Mid-Season Day (13): 1.29
This year’s top big man. Teams looking for size on the boundary will be seeking out Denzel Boston. I’ve now said this four times in a row. I expect his value to stay in this range.
WR5 – Chris Brazzell, Tennessee (+10)
- Pre-season (0): N/A
- Mid-Season Day (6): 1.31
I’m tired of over hyping Tennessee WRs who can only run one route. HOWEVER, they finally have a QB that can air it out. Brazzell should continue to look good on a stat sheet, although this value is far too rich for me when I consider this player a rotational piece in the NFL.
WR6 – Antonio Williams, Clemson (-)
- Pre-season (10): 2.36
- Mid-Season Day (7): 2.33
Expect Antonio Williams to drop a bit in the next update, given the volume on big boards he was present on compared to the preseason. I still love the player, but the injuries and the team’s collapse aren’t great. I still believe in the talent, but expect him to fall in the article series.
WR7 – Ja’Kobi Lane, USC (-3)
- Pre-season (7): 1.32
- Mid-Season Day (5): 2.33
I think it’s cute that people thought he had first-round potential pre-season after his bowl game performance. This value is far too high, even given its limited appearances; I expect it to fall drastically.
WR8 – Germie Bernard, Alabama (+2)
- Pre-season (2): 3.66
- Mid-Season Day (5): 2.39
Bernard has become an integral piece in the Alabama offense and is asked to do a bit of everything. He’s the perfect chess piece for the NFL. At the moment, I think the 2.39 price tag is a bit rich, but he should stay in the WR5-10 range for the class.
WR9 – Chris Bell, Louisville (-)
- Pre-season (4): 2.59
- Mid-Season Day (7): 2.41
Chris Bell has been on a tear lately, so this positioning is not unexpected. There’s not much reason to expect him to slow down, and we have excellent athletic numbers on him, so he maintains this position through the draft.
WR10 – Zachariah Branch, Georgia (+1)
- Pre-season (5): 3.64
- Mid-Season Day (5): 2.48
Are we being serious? Are the Branch family paying people? Do we watch football?….. Oh, I see the problem. (Spoiler: Mel Kiper Jr. has him at 22nd overall)
WR11 – Eric Singleton, Auburn (-6)
- Pre-season (11): 2.34
- Mid-Season Day (8): 2.50
It’s tough to build an NFL production profile at Auburn, so shoutout to everyone still believing. I believe he will continue to drop in this series in the short term as long as Auburn continues its current trajectory.
WR12 – Kevin Concepcion, Texas A&M (-)
- Pre-season (4): 3.68
- Mid-Season Day (5): 2.50
KC has been in the NFL discussions since his true freshman season. Some believe he is just a gadget player. Let’s see how the rest of the season shapes up. So far, this writer thinks he’s more suited for a rotational role and may end up returning to college.
WR13 – Nyck Harbor, South Carolina (-11)
- Pre-season (4): 1.23
- Mid-Season Day (5): 2.51
South Carolina’s WR will be representing the insane athlete with zero refinement in this year’s draft class. He should drop, but the NFL can’t resist a juicy project; he’s very much in play for a third-round selection. He should continue to fall.
WR General Thoughts
- WR class is shaping up; it almost always does, and looking at the names makes you feel a bit better about it.
Honorable Mentions
- Elijah Sarratt has gained some traction recently, but didn’t have enough to put on the list. Expect him to be present in the following article.
- WRs present in three big boards after the season started: Elijah Sarratt, Aaron Anderson, Deion Burks, and Duce Robinson.
- Malachi Fields was all over the preseason big boards, but there has been radio silence on that hype train for a few months. Expect that to continue.
- Ian Strong has appeared on two big boards recently. I expect him to make an appearance on the tail end of the list by next update, but I’m not confident that he will come out this year.
Closing Thoughts
It is too early to take this draft stock seriously, except for the very top of each positional group. The real value in this exercise is how many big boards a player is present on compared to the others.
