Campus2Canton has been known for a lot over the years – Felix’s shots from deep, Matt’s spot-on Southern accent as Judge Deveraux, and Colin proclaiming every player under the sun has late-day two upside – but perhaps what we are best known for is the development of the year one zero theory.
If you are new to the site, the theory, developed by Chris Moxley and fine-tuned by Austin Nace, basically states that true freshmen who break out in their first season on campus and hit one of a number of metrics have an increased chance of having success in the NFL. While success is certainly not guaranteed as a result of hitting one of the metrics, the chances of success if you fail to hit at least one of them are close to zero. The metrics are as follows:
- Ten receptions
- 100 receiving yards
- Five rush attempts
- 15 rush yards
- One rush TD
- Ten scrimmage touches
- 115 scrimmage yards
- Five punt or kick returns
Since the theory was created, there have been very few exceptions who have been what we like to call year one zeros that have gone on to be successful in the NFL – the most recent example possibly being Omar Cooper, who was drafted in the first round this season after barely sneaking into the top 300 of his recruiting class and finishing as a year one zero. Here was the breakdown when Chris took a look at the hit rates in 2022:
In this article, I am going to break down the wide receivers in the 2026 recruiting class into four categories – players I think are locks to break year one zero, players I feel good about beating it, those I am concerned about beating it, and those I feel have close to no chance of beating it – and give my reasoning as to why I am placing them there.
Locks To Break Year One Zero
Tristen Keys, Tennessee (No. 13)
The Volunteers don’t have the greatest track record when it comes to utilizing their freshman wideouts, but Keys is perhaps the best they’ve had on campus this decade, and with only Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews – a year one zero himself in 2024 – ahead of him in the wide receiver room, he should be a lock to get 100 receiving yards on the season
Chris Henry Jr., Ohio State (No.14)
Henry is the latest in a long line of stud freshman wide receivers the Buckeyes have brought on campus over the last decade, and despite having likely first-round pick Jeremiah Smith ahead of him on the depth chart, I think he will see playing time over players like Brandon Inniss and Devin McCuin and should easily amass 100 yards on the season
Cederian Morgan, Alabama (No. 44)
I was a little more concerned about Morgan when Noah Rogers was projected to start ahead of him this fall, but an unfortunate serious injury sustained by Rogers in the Alabama spring game should open up immediate starting time for Morgan, who I think could push to be the leading wideout in the room as a true freshman given Ryan Coleman-Williams’ penchant for drops
Likely To Break Year One Zero
These are players I think have a greater than 50% chance to break year one zero, and I would feel comfortable drafting in supplemental drafts.
Ethan “Boobie” Feaster/Kayden Dixon-Wyatt/Trent Mosley, USC (No. 41, 59, and 251)
I am going to lump all three of the top USC freshman wideouts into the same category because I feel all of them have a good shot to beat year one zero. Tanook Hines and incoming transfer Terrell Anderson are really the only roadblocks in front of them for playing time, and I think all are going to see the field a good amount this season. I am placing them here instead of in the lock category because I think they could eat into each other’s production, and I could see a world where one of them fails to reach one of the thresholds.
If there is one, I feel the best about it’s Trent Mosley, because he was a solid kick and punt returner in high school, and last year’s return man Makai Lemon is off to the NFL, and I can see a world where Mosley steps in and takes over.
If Feaster was around in spring, I would feel a lot better about him, but he has been participating in camps in the meantime, and despite reclassifying to the 2026 class, I think he is the most talented of the trio, and I think talent will win out in the end.
Dixon-Wyatt is probably the one I am most worried about. I think Hines and Anderson likely start on the outside with either Mosley or Feaster in the slot, so I think he could be the odd man out. However, I think he will still get enough garbage-time touches to likely avoid being a year-one zero.
Davian Groce, Florida (No. 55)
Florida produced six wide receivers last season that had over 100 receiving yards, and despite a new head coach coming to town, the cupboard is pretty bare at the position outside Vernell Brown, Dallas Wilson, and incoming transfer Eric Singleton, and Wilson is coming off an injury.
I think Groce could crack the rotation, but even if he doesn’t, he was a prolific rushing threat in high school – he had close to 2,500 rushing yards in his career – and was a kick and punt returner as well, so like Gash I think he will find ways to touch the ball enough this season to break at least one of the thresholds.
Somourian Wingo, Miami (No. 65)
With Malachi Toney locked into the starting slot role and transfer Cooper Barkate likely occupying one of the outside wide receiver spots, there is one more up for grabs. While I think it’s likely Joshua Moore gets the majority of the playing time there, and Cam Vaughn and Vandrevius Jacobs also transferred in this offseason, I think Wingo is going to see enough playing time to eventually crack the 100-yard mark.
Naeem Burroughs, Clemson (No. 67)
Similar to Trent Mosley, Burroughs was a good kick and punt returner in high school, and the Tigers lost primary kick returner Adam Randall and punt returner Antonio Williams to the NFL draft. I think even if Burroughs struggles to see consistent playing time due to TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco ahead of him, he is likely to avoid being a year one zero on kick/punt return metrics alone.
Jase Mathews, Ole Miss (No. 110)
Hilton Alexander is pretty much the only returning wideout in this room with any production, so I can see a world where Mathews sees the field enough to crack 100 yards. However, even if he doesn’t, he also returned kickoffs in high school, and given the lack of a returning kick returner on the team, he might assume that role for the Rebels.
Tyren Hornes, UCF (No. 151)
Hornes was a late riser as a recruit and lands on a UCF team that added Josh Derry in the portal but doesn’t have a returning wideout with over 300 yards last season outside of Duane Thomas Jr. Hornes was getting buzz in the spring, and I think he is going to crack the starting rotation at some point this season and is someone going undrafted in most supplemental drafts.
Zion Robinson, Stanford (No. 187)
The Cardinal have a great history of utilizing freshman wide receivers, and Robinson should be the next on that list. While I am understandably concerned with Stanford rolling out Davis Warren as their starting quarterback, the team only returns one wideout – Caden High – with over 100 receiving yards last season. I think he will see the playing time to crack the 100-yard barrier.
Jordan Clay/Trez Davis, Washington (No. 193 and 205)
Outside of Dezmen Roebuck and possibly Rashid Williams, this wide receiver room is wide open, and Clay and Davis were both getting a lot of buzz during spring practices. I think both see a lot of snaps this season, but even if Davis struggles to see the field, he was a great kick and punt returner in college, and with last year’s leading returners Adam Mohammed, Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston gone from the team, I think there is a decent chance he assumes that role this season.
Jasen Lopez/Devin Carter, Florida State (No. 208 and 289)
This FSU team is likely going to be a dumpster fire, and they are likely going to be throwing early and often. While it’s going to be Ashton Daniels likely throwing it, which is a bit concerning, both of these players were getting a lot of buzz this spring. While the Seminoles return Duce Robinson, Michai Danzy and Jayvan Boggs at wideout, Danzy was absent for most, if not all, of spring practice due to participating on the track team and is more of a gadget player, and Boggs struggled to get 100 yards last season. Lopez was also a good kick and punt returner in high school, so that could be another route to him breaking the threshold as well.
Kenny Darby, Kentucky (No. 218)
This wide receiver room is pretty much wide open outside of DJ Miller, who himself only had 175 receiving yards last season. With Will Stein coming to town, I think the Wildcats could have somewhat of an offensive renaissance this season, and I think Darby is likely to see enough playing time to crack 10 receptions and/or 100 receiving yards.
Samson Gash, Michigan State (No. 257)
Gash is a Swiss Army Knife type player that I think could break year one zero in a multitude of ways. First off, the wide receiver room is pretty much barren outside Chrishon McCray, so I think he could see early playing time at wide receiver. However, even if he doesn’t, he was a great kick and punt returner in high school, and last year’s kick and punt returners are no longer with the team.
If all else fails, he also received a lot of rushing yards in high school, and there’s a chance he could see rushing attempts on jet sweeps or wide receiver screens with the team. He is a player going mostly free in supplemental drafts because he isn’t on Fantrax, but one of the players on this list I feel the most comfortable beating year one zero.
Players I Am Worried About Being A Year One Zero
These are players I think have less than a 50% chance of beating year one zero, but I don’t think all hope is lost like the players in the next category.
Jalen Lott, Oregon (No. 19)
Lott wasn’t on campus in the spring, and Oregon already has a checkered past of misusing freshman wide receivers before Dakorien Moore last season. With Moore, Evan Stewart, Jeremiah McClellan, and perhaps even Gatlin Bair ahead of him, I am worried Oregon could revert to their old ways and keep Lott on the bench. Given that he is routinely going in the late first to mid-second round in supplemental drafts, I just think the risk is too much to draft him in that range, and I think there is a pretty good chance that he ends up a year one zero this season.
Craig Dandridge, Georgia (No. 81)
Dandridge is someone who seems to be getting some buzz, and I liked him in high school, but the Georgia wide receiver room is a mess. They already haven’t produced a fantasy-relevant wide receiver since AJ Green – even players like Ladd McConkey and George Pickens were mostly unstartable most weeks – and he has players like Talyn Taylor, CJ Wiley, London Humphreys, Isiah Canion, and perhaps even tight end turned slot wide receiver Kaiden Prothro in front of him. I just don’t really see an amazing path to him getting on the field enough to break year one zero.
Aaron Gregory, Texas A&M (No. 99)
This is a situation where I think there are just too many roadblocks in front of him for Gregory to see enough playing time absent injury. The Aggies return Mario Craver, Ashton Bethel-Roman, and Terry Bussey ahead of him and brought in Isaiah Horton in the portal, as well as highly touted recruit Jeromy Myles, who had a year-one zero last season. I just don’t think he will carve out enough snaps to be able to break the thresholds.
Chase Campbell, Texas Tech (No. 103)
Similar to Gregory, the Red Raiders opened up their checkbooks this offseason, and in addition to returning Coy Eakin and Micah Hudson at the position, they brought in Malcolm Simmons, Kenny Johnson, and even FCS darling and Felix Sharpe special Jalen Jones. I think there are just too many bodies ahead of him. His best chance perhaps is that he was a solid kick returner in high school and had some rushing attempts as well, so if he can somehow supplant Micah Hudson or J’Koby Williams at kick returner, he might be able to beat the threshold there.
Travis Johnson, Michigan (No. 125)
The Wolverines return Andrew Marsh at wide receiver and bring in transfer Jaime Ffrench from Texas, and while it seems there is room for a freshman wideout to make some noise in this room this season, it seemed like all the buzz this spring was in favor of Salesi Moa over Johnson. Johnson is probably the player in this tier I think has the best chance to crack year one zero, but with all the noise about how bad the offense and Bryce Underwood have looked this offseason, I am hesitant to bank on it happening.
Brady Marchese, Auburn (No. 142)
With Alex Golesh bringing most of his wideouts from USF with him to Auburn, I think Marchese is going to find it difficult to crack the rotation this season.
Keeyun Chapman, UNC (No. 192)
Chapman is another player who I think has a decent chance to crack year one zero just because Jordan Shipp is the only decent returning wideout on the team and he plays in the slot, but this offense only had two wide receivers break 150 receiving yards last season and I just don’t believe in likely starting quarterback Billy Edwards or sadly Bill Belichick enough to feel good about Chapman getting more than 100 receiving yards.
Mason James, Washington (No. 283)
Jordan Clay and Trez Davis were getting most of the buzz in spring, and while it seemed like James might be able to see the field as a return man, he had a pretty brutal drop on a punt return during the spring game, and I think he might be the odd man out in this freshman wide receiver class.
Connor Salmin/Gordon Sellars, Clemson (No. 191 and 177)
With TJ Moore, Bryant Wesco, Naeem Burroughs and other fringe guys like Tyler Brown and Cole Turner likely ahead of them on the depth chart, as well as uninspiring option Christopher Vizzina likely starting at quarterback, I think it’s highly unlikely either of this pair of freshman wideouts hit any of the year one zero metrics.
Likely To Be A Year One Zero
I think all of these players have a very strong chance to finish as a year one zero, and as such, I wouldn’t be drafting them in supplemental drafts this offseason.
Jerquaden Guilford, Ohio State (No. 45)
Guilford is a player I see being drafted way too early because of a late rise in his recruiting ranking, but I see no path for playing time. With Jeremiah Smith, Devin McCuin, Brandon Inniss, Chris Henry and even possibly Brock Boyd ahead of him on the depth chart, I see no way he gets to 100 receiving yards, especially given the Buckeyes only had three wideouts reach 100 yards last season.
Corey Barber/Jabari Mack, LSU (No. 57 and 171)
The Tigers brought in a ton of wideouts in the portal – Jackson Harris, Eugene Wilson, Jayce Brown, Tre Brown, Winston Watkins and even spring darling Roman Mothershed. I see zero chance these two see the field enough to break year one zero. The only shot is that Barber was a kick and punt returner in high school and also saw a lot of rushing attempts, so if he cracks the rotation as a kick/punt returner or sees some rushing packages, he might break it, but as a pure wideout I see zero chance.
Calvin Russell, Syracuse (No. 85)
This one is a sad one for me as I was actually fairly high on Russell, especially given the lack of talent in the wide receiver room and his progress at the start of spring practice, but then he tore his Achilles and is going to miss most, if not all, of the season, making him a lock to be a year one zero. Syracuse claims he might return late in the season, but don’t buy into that – they will likely have a losing record by then, and if he was going to return to anything, he’d likely prepare for basketball season instead.
Milan Parris, Miami (No. 112)
With Malachi Toney, Cooper Barkate, Joshua Moore, Somourian Wingo, Cam Vaughn, Vandrevious Jacobs and perhaps even Vance Spafford ahead of him, Parris just won’t see the field enough to surpass 100 receiving yards.
Tyreek King, Tennessee (No. 131)
King simply just has too many bodies ahead of him, including Tristen Keys, to reach any of the year one zero thresholds.
Kaydon Finley/Devin Fitzgerald/Bubba Frazier, Notre Dame (No. 141, 281 and 285)
The Fighting Irish only had four wide receivers surpass 100 yards last season, and with Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse returning and Quincy Porter and Mylan Graham entering via the portal, I just don’t see a shot for any of these players to break any of the year one zero thresholds. If I was going to bet on any of them, however, it would be Frazier because he was a solid kick/punt returner in high school, so maybe he can crack the rotation there.
Messiah Hampton, Oregon (No. 148)
If I think Jalen Lott is going to struggle to find snaps to break year one zero, then I think there is no shot for Hampton to be able to get it done.
Jayden Warren/Madden Williams, Texas A&M (No. 163 and 210)
Warren could possibly break it due to kick and punt returns if he can find a role on special teams, but otherwise I think this duo is buried behind too many bodies to see the field as a wide receiver.
Jayden Petit, Oklahoma (No. 185)
The Sooners lost three of their top four wideouts from last season, but Isaiah Sategna returns, and Trell Harris and Parker Livingstone arrive via the portal. In addition, much of the freshman buzz out of spring camp was for Jahsiear Rogers, not Petit, so I think there is little chance for him to see the field enough to break year one zero.
Ryan Mosley, Georgia (No. 227)
As stated with Dandridge, I just don’t believe in the offense enough to produce high-volume wideouts, and there are too many bodies ahead of him.
Luc Weaver, USC (No. 259)
With the two returning options at wideout and three higher-ranked freshmen ahead of him, I think he has zero chance to see the field this season.
Jaden McDuffie, Northwestern (No. 230)
While the Wildcats’ offense produced four 100-yard-plus wideouts last season and brings in an upgrade at quarterback in Aidan Chiles, they return pretty much their entire wide receiver corps from 2025, so I think McDuffie is going to be hard-pressed to crack the rotation enough this season to break year one zero.
Kohen Brown, Texas (No. 266)
With options like Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Emmett Mosley, Daylan McCutcheon, Kaliq Lockett and even fellow freshman Jermaine Bishop Jr. likely ahead of him on the depth chart, I find it highly unlikely Brown isn’t a year one zero, especially given the Longhorns’ top three wide receiver recruits last season – Lockett, Jaime Ffrench and Aaron Butler – were all year one zeroes.
Davion Brown, Virginia Tech (No. 293)
Brown barely slid into the top 300, but with new Hokies head coach James Franklin in town, I don’t have high hopes for this offense, especially with Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback. Franklin also brought a bunch of Penn State wideouts with him to Virginia Tech, as well as Que’Sean Brown via the transfer portal, so I find it highly unlikely Brown isn’t a year-one zero. His only real shot could be as a rushing threat, as he rushed for 284 yards on 31 carries in his senior season, so if he can get manufactured rushing touches at wideout, then perhaps he can hit that threshold and avoid year one zero.
I am sure some will disagree with the placement of at least a few of the guys on this list, but this is how I see things at this current moment in time. However, the most important thing you need to be willing to do is pivot after the first two to three weeks of the season.
If you own a share of someone who you thought was easily going to break year one zero but they have seen zero snaps so far and they aren’t injured then don’t be afraid to either trade them to someone who still believes in them or start to consider possibly dropping them for other waiver wire options, as the value on some of these players can drop pretty precipitously if they end the season as a year one zero.
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