First games down, time to start tracking!
With the first week of the season done at the FBS level, it is time to look back and see which running backs are on the right path to establishing themselves for long-term relevance as college producers and better odds brackets for NFL relevance. Just a reminder: the odds of being NFL relevant are severely low if you don’t hit most of the Year 1 zero metrics.
For reference again on what I expect for a true freshman; I want to see the following stats achieved by the end of the season: 20 carries, 100 rushing yards, 5 catches, 30 receiving yards, and 2 TDs as a runner or receiver.
Before diving into the only three freshmen to play this week, I find it interesting that we discuss some of the standout names this week.
The Past Successes
The top four performers this week were all massive Year 1 success stories for their programs. Jeremy Payne and Ousmane Kromah both went over 100 yards this week and continue to build off solid Year 1s in which Payne went 5/5, and Kromah was 4/5 with only two touchdowns for a bad Florida State team holding him back. Right behind them were Micah Ford and Jaylin Carter, who were also 4/5 and 5/5, respectively. I expect all four to pull away from their backfield peers even though I will be watching the work of Singleton and Covey, who hit none of the five metrics as true freshmen.
Virginia was controlled by Middlebrook and Xavier Brown, both of whom were solid in their first year. Middlebrook hit three of the metrics in only three games as a walk-on, and Brown was at 4/5. The downside is Pribula will eat a lot of the ceiling if the backs are splitting work.
The backfields of San Jose State, Jacksonville State, Sacramento State, Eastern Michigan, Hawaii, & New Mexico State were all mid performances, with only one RB in Curtis performing highly as a 4/5 in his first year. UNLV and North Carolina, however, had some intrigue with Jai’Den Thomas (5) and Demon June (5), hoping for better days but getting limited with Glover and a combination of Ben Hall and Jaylen McGill (pour one out for my guy who did very little as a reclassify freshman last year). I expect Thomas to keep gaining traction, but I’d be ready to avoid the UNC backs for now.
My last bit before freshmen talk will be on North Dakota State and USC, who seem to be trend breakers for what they do. Both systems have consistently made talent work despite the history of the back prior to joining. ND State saw Myles Mitchell, DJ Scott, and Punni all succeed in their first game, without anyone getting strong metrics in Year 1 of their careers. USC is the same way, as they seem to always make their backs look good enough for the NFL. Waymond was the clear starter and one of the few categories I won’t write off immediately as a JUCO Year 1 zero player. King Miller’s 2024 season is unknown but has also seen success. Wormley joins the list from last season too. However, the freshmen are off to better starts.
The Freshmen of Week 0
Redeaux was the fifth back in the game with only two carries among the eight snaps he got, but he looked solid. One carry was a great inside run with a cut for more yards. The other was a splendid block off the right side where he had no work until he met contact in the second level. Not a lot to take away there, as one was in the second quarter and the other in the fourth.
Shahn Alston saw the third most snaps with 13 in the game (Wormley had 10) as he scored a TD with 30 yards on 7 carries, which all came in the fourth quarter. While the efficiency wasn’t as high and he had only one big run, the workload going fully to him, aside from the one carry in the fourth, is a way to establish trust moving forward. Alston did get work on all three downs and two attempts in the red zone. Hopefully we see the young guys continue to get valuable reps as the team ramps up for the Big Ten slate.
While Sacramento State and Jamar Curtis did not get much going in week 0, we did see Ene make two important plays in the three carries he got: one for a short TD and another for 37 yards. He was third among the team with only 10 snaps played behind Curtis (42) and Elias Brown (15), but making plays like that could increase his time on the field. I would not stress him as anything for fantasy yet, but he is officially on my radar and in my graphics.
