Gone are the days of the Mike Leach Air Raid quarterback that is fantasy relevant strictly for his passing volume stats. Fernando Mendoza led the country in passing TDs with 32 on 293 attempts, which is the lowest single-season passing touchdown leader since 1994. Yes, 31 years!
To put that into perspective, just four years ago, Bailey Zappe threw for 52 touchdowns on 581 attempts in 12 games. 52 touchdowns! Since the turn of the century, it was the norm for air raid and run-n-shoot systems to produce QBs with 40+ passing TDs year after year. These guys flooded the CFF market with elite producers. That is no longer the case.
This has been a trend since Covid. Here are the amount of QBs that have thrown for more than 35 TDs by season since 2020:
Analyzing the Trend
So, what has changed? Well, systems rule in CFF, and systems have recently featured athletic, dynamic runners under center. Adaptations in the spread option to RPO, as well as the veer-n-shoot, have increased the QB run game. Most play-callers now operate under the philosophy of using the QB threat in the run game, which challenges defenses more and allows for an extra blocker compared to an RB handoff. Let’s look at the CFF ramifications for this and how we should adapt our thinking on the draft process.
The following data is based on 5-point passing TDs league. I figured we should split the middle on four versus six passing TD leagues:
Only two QBs finished as a QB1 or QB2 (top 24 overall in total points) on the season with either less than 500 rushing yards or less than five rushing TDs- Joe Fagnano (QB13) and Sawyer Robertson (QB15). That’s it. 22 of the top 24 QBs, and all of the top 12 QBs, met the threshold of at least 500 rushing yards OR five rushing TDs.
Nine of the top 24 had double-digit rushing TDs.
Each of the top six had at least 500 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs. Those same six QBs averaged 154 rushing attempts.
We need to be prioritizing QBs with huge rushing upside early in our drafts. We need to be prioritizing QBs with five rushing TD upside late in your drafts. We need to be de-emphasizing QBs with next to no rushing upside throughout your drafts. Only 8% of starter-level QBs didn’t meet the 500/5 threshold.
Additionally, only four of the top 24 were transfer QBs that were operating under a new play-caller: Anthony Colandrea (QB12), Jake Retzlaff (QB19), Trinidad Chambliss (QB23), and Brendon Lewis (QB24). Only one of them, Chambliss, moved up a level in competition. Colandrea and Retzlaff dropped down a level, and Lewis remained in the G5. It is a small sample size, but this will be something to monitor moving forward as the emphasis on the transfer portal continues to grow. For now, focus on QBs with big rushing upside and be mindful of those that change systems while attempting to level up.
