It’s #FUTURESSZN, and what better way to start than analyzing some team win totals that look tasty. In this miniseries, we will look at each of the ten FBS conferences and highlight some especially good-looking team totals. Let’s be honest, Vegas is very sharp, and *most* of the lines are about right. I don’t want to give you an over/under on every team because, frankly, most will be within one game away from the target, and one wrong bounce can lose the bet.
I have sifted through each team and each schedule (with the help of our handy dandy CFF guide) and hand-picked a few that should beat their mark with room to spare. Without further ado, let’s look at the American Athletic Conference. All lines are courtesy of Draft Kings sportsbook.
Memphis Tigers (2021 record: 6-6) OVER 7.5 wins (+120)
Returning most key personnel with the exception of fourth-round pick Calvin Austin III, Memphis should continue to challenge opponents with one of the country’s most explosive offenses. All eyes will be on sophomore Seth Henigan who was exceptional as a true freshman in 2021. They will have four starting offensive linemen back for another season which should keep the offense humming.
From my perspective, they have no sure losses on the schedule, with their toughest road test being @Miss. St. They get two of the AAC’s finest in Memphis (Houston, UCF) and don’t have to face Cincinnati in the regular season. I see seven pretty clear victories, which means to cash this ticket, they would need to take one of @Miss. St., @ECU, @SMU, HOU, or UCF. I give the Memphis OVER a 4/5 star rating.
Temple Owls (2021 record: 3-9) OVER 2.5 wins (-130)
Sometimes value shows up in the strangest places. I did not set out to be a Temple supporter, but here we are. Out is lifeless coach Rod Carey and in is long-time Power 5 assistant Stan Drayton. With stops at Tennessee, Florida, Ohio State, and most recently, Texas, Drayton knows what it takes to win at the highest level. However, he has quite a job in store for him in Philadelphia.
Temple has nothing to show on paper at the moment. Former Georgia starter D’Wan Mathis should begin the season as the incumbent QB, but North Dakota State transfer Quincy Patterson offers some interesting upside as a dual-threat playmaker. The defense, which finished fifth in the nation in pass defense in 2021, looks to improve and brings back quite a few players. They get two gimmies in FCS Lafayette and UMass, which means they have to scratch out ONE win to cover their line. I like the over with Duke, Tulsa, and rebuilding USF on the slate but will settle on a 2.5/5 rating on the bet.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2021 record 7-6) UNDER 6 wins (-120)
The Golden Hurricane won seven last year, but the final victory was a postseason bowl. I’ll be frank, and I just don’t like this team. A bottom-third offensive line from a year ago only returns two starters, and their defense loses three of their most productive playmakers (Fuller, Martin, Burnett).
I can’t seem to find seven wins on their schedule. A brutal out-of-conference road tilt with Wyoming is a painful way to start the season. I feel good about one sure win (quality FCS program Jacksonville St) and give them a 50/50 ball in five other matchups (Wyoming, Northern Illinois, @Navy, @Temple, Tulane, USF). If they clean sweep those games, they will hit the over, but that seems very unlikely. If they fall once, their only chances to get to seven wins would be @Ole Miss, @Memphis, @Houston, and then Cincinnati and SMU at home. It’s not my favorite bet in the country but like Temple, I’ll hand in a 3/5 rating on this one.
Tulane Green Wave (2021 record 2-10) UNDER 6 wins (-130)
This one pains me as I kind of want to root for the Green Wave. They have an intriguing QB in Michael Pratt, and it’s a fun school with a nice uniform aesthetic in a fun location. But I don’t think the schedule lines up for seven wins, which is what it would take to lose this bet.
Going to Manhattan and facing Kansas State in week 3 is their big P5 matchup and projects as a loss. I have five other losses penciled in @HOU, @CIN, then Memphis, UCF, and SMU at home. So, we’re already at 6-6 if they win the rest. UMass and Alcorn State are hall passes, but they’d have to win all of @USF, @Tulsa, Southern Miss, and ECU to even push six wins. I feel pretty good about this one, giving it a 4/5 rating.
