The very first CFB DFS slate of the season is here! Can you believe that we made it? The Iowa State vs. Kansas State matchup is quite the opener and an exciting showdown. Both offenses are highly concentrated in their usage, so being creative and taking calculated shots is what will lead us to profit this weekend. Let’s dig into this showdown slate!
(Captain pricing shown)
Obviously, both quarterbacks are in play due to the volume and talent they have. Avery Johnson ($18,300) will cost you the most, just narrowly beating out Rocco Becht ($17,400) for that honor. Avery has the upside and the floor to warrant paying up. While it’s likely that Kansas State throws it no more than 30-32 times, he could easily see 12-14 rushing attempts at dang good efficiency.
Becht, on the other hand, is the better passer with enough usefulness on the ground. He started 2024 off with five straight games of four or fewer rushing attempts, not something you love out of a captain quarterback that won’t throw it 40+ times. If you’re going to roll with Becht, an Iowa State onslaught makes the most sense. If you’re not feeling that game script, likely, he doesn’t hit value as a captain without squeaking out a big run and/or a touchdown on the ground.
I’m a big fan of receivers at the captain position, so the obvious target here is Chase Sowell ($12,900). He’s a big-bodied transfer from East Carolina and should easily line up in the Jayden Higgins role this year. Xavier Townsend ($9,600) comes over from UCF to replace Jaylin Noel’s role in the offense. Typically, it’s the big X receiver that eats in this offense, so I favor Sowell even at a higher cost. Townsend hasn’t done a whole lot in his career, so expecting a big game out of him isn’t all that likely.
Kansas State has us concerned about whether Dylan Edwards ($11,100) is going to be the RB1 this year, with recent reports that Joe Jackson ($2,700) is battling it out for top reps. Edwards has real juice, and even better, is excellent in the passing game. The Wildcats appear to want to get him involved in the passing game quite a bit, providing a nice consolation for what might end up being 75% of the normal RB1 usage in this offense. Jackson’s price is so low that it doesn’t make sense to fade him here. He’s the bigger-bodied back that has a wide range of outcomes. He could be the main guy and see 20 touches, or he could be limited to 5-8 touches, with potential goal-line work included. At this price, I wouldn’t get cute and fade him.
Jayce Brown ($14,100) is the top Wildcats target in the passing game, which isn’t saying all that much. What is great about him is that he’s a bigger play threat, averaging 11 yards per target in 2024. This hefty price tag eliminates him from any real ownership for me, as his most likely outcome is something like five receptions for 80 yards. Even if he scores a touchdown, I’m not sure it warrants the cost unless we get a very low-scoring game and you fade Dylan Edwards/Rocco Becht. It’s possible, but it’s not something I am going to bank on.
Carsen Hansen ($12,300) is an intriguing option in this matchup because historically, we love Iowa State running backs. Unfortunately, the past two seasons have left a sour taste in our mouths. There is no “OR” on the depth chart, so throwing some ownership Hansen’s way makes a lot of sense to me. It’s a very real possibility that he sees 50-60% of usage on the ground for the Cyclones.
Some other targets to consider to save some cash potentially:
Gabe Burkle ($3,000) took over quite nicely when Ben Brahmer ($6,600) went down with an injury last season. He caught a touchdown in the bowl game against Miami and had four or more receptions in three of their final five games. You have to find value somewhere, and this is an offense that is not afraid to utilize its tight end. Brahmer is a tad pricey but does hold bigger upside in the offense.
Technically, there are some “OR’s” on the Iowa State depth chart, and as much as I don’t buy it, you’d be crazy not to consider Eli Green ($4,800) as a cheaper option. He saw action in 2024, capping off his season with a 3-reception game against Miami. I don’t believe Sowell has any risk of losing the top wide out spot, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing if Xavier Townsend started the season as a backup, and that is who Green is an “OR” with.
