Who are the candidates the data tells us could finish as the CFF RB1? We have identified several advanced metrics with rushing data that serve as strong markers for projecting future production. The two that we are most concerned with are Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.0 yards) and Breakaway Rate (38%). This article will also take a look at Offensive Line Career Starts (66).
We will combine these three items to take a purely data-driven approach to find the Power Four running backs most likely to finish RB1 overall. The only other caveat is that the player must have led his team in rushing in 2024 and have the same offensive coordinator returning in 2025 in order to qualify for this list.
Yards After Contact per Attempt: This is a good indicator of the player’s ability to create on his own and maximize each rushing attempt. Our threshold here is 3.0 yards.
Breakaway Rate: This is a prime indicator of a player’s explosiveness. It distinguishes the backs capable of consistently getting chunk yardage from the plotters. It is defined as the percentage of yards a player gains on runs of at least 15 yards. Our threshold here is 38%.
Offensive Line Career Starts: This is pretty self-explanatory. An experienced OL is more likely to open more holes. It doesn’t account for the talent of the OL, but it provides a purely objective look at experience and depth. Our threshold here is 66 starts, as that was the median amount nationally.
Lastly, the reason only team-leading rushers were considered was to identify proven options. We aren’t looking for breakout candidates. We are looking for backs that the data tells us have the potential to take the next step and finish as the CFF RB1 overall. Considering only players who return with the same offensive coordinator in 2025 adds a layer of stability to the criteria. So, without further ado, here are our candidates:
So…What does this tell us?
Well, seeing Washington, Brown, Taylor, Singleton, and Durham on this list shouldn’t come as a major surprise. There is a reason they are being selected in the first two rounds of the draft. They are all proven studs that could finish RB1 if things fall right for them.
However, Isaac Brown, having the highest breakaway rate, a YAC/A over four yards, and a ridiculous 203 career starts (most in the country!), returning on the Louisville OL is eye-popping!
Le’Veon Moss is an interesting candidate. He just barely met the breakaway rate threshold, but his 4.4 yards after contact/attempt is incredible, and the Aggies’ OL ranks sixth in the country with 153 career starts. He has an OC in Collin Klein that has provided us with an RB1, Deuce Vaughn, before. The biggest concern here is the season-ending knee injury he suffered in early November. Assuming a clean bill of health, he should probably be going much higher in drafts.
Jamal Haynes has been one of the most consistent running backs in the country. He has finished in the RB40-50 range each of the last two seasons. Does he have another gear? The data suggest that he does. He simply needs more volume. He hasn’t reached 200 touches in a season yet. RB1 could be in the range of outcomes if he could push 250 touches with a much easier schedule in 2025.
Davon Booth is easily the biggest surprise on the list. He returns to Starkville thanks to the Pavia JUCO rule. He barely met the YAC/A threshold, but proved to be very explosive in his first season in the SEC. He is definitely a long shot to finish as RB1, given how poorly the Bulldogs are likely to perform, but Jeff Lebby does call a run-heavy, high-speed game. Booth would need to fend off the transfer of Fluff Bothwell to get the volume necessary to push for the top CFF RB.
