The 2023 NFL Draft has come and gone. We saw a number of players drafted to NFL Teams which shifted values. Over the next three pieces, I’ll be looking at how those values shifted. We’ll look at veterans whose stock improved, veterans whose stock dropped, and rookies whose stock changed. Today, I conclude with a look at rookies.
Stock Up: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
About: Richardson is an interesting prospect out of Florida. He has a high ceiling but definitely needs to improve on a few things. That meant the landing spot would matter. With the Colts, he lands in the ideal spot. New Colts coach Shane Steichen worked with Jalen Hurts, so he knows how to develop a big-armed, mobile quarterback. The Colts have a decent set of weapons, including a great running back in Jonathan Taylor. Based on the landing spot, some have even moved Richardson to the 1.01 in rookie drafts. Either way, he’s a solid Top 3 pick, providing a good value boost.
Stock Down: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
About: Levis got early Second Round draft capital and could be the future quarterback of the Titans. All that still seems promising, and it’s not as if Levis’s stock fell off the map. But some projected him to be a Top 10 pick in the draft, even possibly the No. 1 pick overall. He was routinely going high in the first round of rookie draft mocks prior to the draft. Now, he’s on a team with veteran Ryan Tannehill, second-year player Malik Willis and a dearth of weapons in the receiving corps. I’m not taking him before the first half of the Second Round, and I’m not confident I see much from him in the next couple of seasons.
Stock Up: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
About: Gibbs was already the No. 2 prospect in the class, but being taken as the No. 12 overall pick is a boon. In addition, with the Lions quickly moving D’Andre Swift during the draft, it opens up a huge role for Gibbs in a good offense on an ascending team. He locked in his spot in the Top 5 in rookie drafts, easily becoming one of the most bankable prospects available in the draft.
Stock Down: Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
About: Charbonnet came into the draft as the third-best RB prospect and was, indeed, the third RB off the board. He even got decent draft capital, going in the Second Round of the NFL Draft. The problem is the landing spot. He went to the Seahawks, who already have Ken Walker III in the backfield. Walker was a Top 5-ranked player in dynasty rankings pre-draft. It’s a smart NFL pick, giving the Seahawks two good running backs. But for fantasy, it creates an unclear path to meaningful touches and leaves a lot of questions about how the backfield load will be split. Charbonnet went from a prospect some were taking in picks No. 6 to No. 8 in the First Round to a Second-Round rookie draft pick, and not one guaranteed to provide much pop in year one.
Stock Up: Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers
About: Mingo is a player who landed in the right spot. The Panthers’ receiver room has more questions than answers, so snagging Mingo at the top of the Second Round provides some potential for immediate impact. Mingo went from an interesting prospect pre-draft to a player who is a solid back-end First Round option in rookie drafts. That’s a solid value boost that makes him an interesting target in a rookie class that didn’t have a lot of great landing spots.
Stock Down: Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots
About: Few players had as curious a pre-draft process as Boutte. But there was still some thought he’d get Day 2 draft capital. Instead, he slid to pick No. 187, the Sixth Round, going to the Patriots. While that still leaves him in the range that I’d take him in the late Third or Fourth Round of a rookie draft, that’s more a testament to this rookie draft group than high hopes he’ll be able to thrive in New England.
Stock Up: Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
About: The Lions took LaPorta as the second tight end in the draft, snagging him early in the Second Round. LaPorta is an interesting prospect who landed in a good spot. The Lions got production out of their tight ends down the stretch in 2022, and that was without a potential focal point player like LaPorta. The Lions have a good offense on an ascending team. I like LaPorta as a tight end pick at the end of the Second or into the Third Round of rookie drafts.
Stock Down: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
About: You don’t often see a player who got First Round draft capital on the Stock Down list. The Bills even traded up to acquire Kincaid, grabbing him at pick No. 25 in the First Round. Heading into the draft, Kincaid was possibly the best of the tight end prospects. But I didn’t love the landing spot, and I’m not sure how Kincaid fits as a passing game weapon. So, despite the draft capital, I’m less bullish on the player heading into rookie drafts.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.