Upon request, I decided to look into running backs who fail to produce in Year 1 as a way to find some hope for outliers. This study focuses on the Year 1 zero metric I built for running backs a few years back, inspired by Campus2Canton’s WR version. I have found this metric very helpful in tiering out my RBs for their NFL potential, so let’s dive into how I apply this metric to all college RBs and the results of my findings for outliers.
SIGNIFICANCE OF YEAR 1 ZERO METRIC
First, I need to start with the five metrics I check and then group my RBs by after their first year in college:
This lets me create six RBs groups based on how many metrics they clear. The goal is to clear all for our Year 1 guys, but getting as many as possible matters. The best I see typically hit the top groups, but let me show you with a few graphics, since seeing is believing.
This top group alone hits most of the big names we see in the NFL landscape. That is not super crazy considering most of these names were relevant for C2C since Year 1 of college anyway. Here are the next two groups as well, since that covers most everyone else of importance.
The reason I will only show the top three tiers here is that the odds of getting drafted drop off significantly if they fall into any of the groups that hit zero to two of the five metrics. The odds of even getting drafted in the top 100, which is a big deal for showing a team is committed to a rookie running back, are less than 2%.
If we extend it to the top 150 since early Day 3 guys can be useful, it is barely over 4%. Even then, I’m probably too high, given that I don’t have every single 2-3 star or walk-on practice RB who ends up never being relevant for college since the start of my sample, dating back to 2012. I cannot stress the importance of Year 1 production enough, overall, and why the Year 1 zero metric is helpful for RBs as well.
FINDING OUTLIERS
But this leads to the question: can I identify the best outliers who can overcome the initial setback of being a 0, 1, or 2 out of 5 in Year 1? The great news is, yes, there is a trend in career PPR PPG, just like with receivers, that we can exploit based on Year 2 results for running backs. My sample size for this is 308 running backs and their career PPG after Year 2 in my career tracker.
Below 7 PPG
If we start with the players who, after Year 2, ended up below seven career PPR PPG, that gives me 260 names. I should have plenty of fun, relevant NFL names for you with such a large sample, but here are the quality names I see of NFL talent: Tony Pollard, Rashaad Penny, Kyle Monangai, Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson, RJ Harvey, and Rachaad White. That is a brutal list, as we have very low odds of the NFL valuing talent. Obviously, each of these names has had potential or a role that was fantasy-worthy, but finding only seven out of 260 names I actually saw worthy of inputting into my tracker should be a sign of how much of a long shot these guys were.
Some current college names in this range that people will recognize are Emmett Johnson, Jadarian Price, JMari Taylor, Quinton Martin, DeSean Bishop, Quinten Joyner, Cam Cook, Daniel Hill, Waymond Jordan, Kanye Udoh, LJ Johnson, and Wayne Knight. Feel free to make the case for these names, but they are already facing tough odds for NFL fantasy dreams.
7-11.99 PPG
My second group here will consist of 30 RBs who fall into this range. The NFL talent in this range is not super inspiring, as we have James Robinson, Audric Estime, Jonathan Brooks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Philip Lindsay, who have been most helpful. Then we have some role guys like Damien Harris, DJ Giddens, and Jordan Mason.
The reason I made this a middle tier, outside of habit, is the college names of note: Tre Wisner, Rodney Fields, Hollywood Smothers, Chauncey Bowens (as of writing), Le’Veon Moss, and Demond Claiborne. I even like some of those names, like Fields, whom I put my stamp on repeatedly this offseason. CFF potential abounds here, but this may be a window to move on if someone gives them high devy value worth pivoting to another CFF guy plus some. Or you can enjoy the CFF value they can offer and be happy regardless of NFL potential.
12+ PPG
This is the exciting group for me: for my running backs who did not perform in Year 1 for any reason (no playing time, suspension, injury, etc.), Year 2 guys who raised their career PPG above 12 have been good to us for the NFL. In this section, we have Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Cam Skattebo, and Chuba Hubbard.
The other NFL guys in this section are Kenny Gainwell, Mohamed Ibrahim, CJ Verdell, Qadree Ollison, Pierre Strong, and Mike Weber. That collection of 12 guys really delivered a remarkable turnaround for owners who had any of them while in FBS, with the top dudes being useful NFL assets, too. These guys showed up, and in spite of some of the names above performing at the JUCO, FCS, or G5 level as well.
If we expand this to include the other seven names in this group, we have Bryson Washington, Kewan Lacy, Roman Hemby, Makhi Hughes, Jordan Marshall, and Gavin Sawchuk. Now, I am not saying all these guys are future NFL studs, but Kewan Lacy and Bryson Washington interest me here if they stay healthy and can show receiving upside. Marshall seems more limited to a bruiser role, unfortunately, and the others have larger samples that do not replicate past successes. As I research more this offseason for any potential names moving up levels of play, we may also find more darkhorses that fit this group, too.
