Underdog has released another tournament for us to participate in, so the content keeps coming! Before you max enter this new $25 tournament, look at who I think are five of the most overdrafted players in the early rounds of these drafts!
Noah Fifita, Arizona, QB – ADP of 55
If you read my content, you know I have a type for quarterbacks, and Fifita just doesn’t fit that mold. He’s a negative rusher who’ll give us zero value on the ground. While the coaching at Arizona has shifted, it’s still a positive, as recent San Jose State passing attacks have been fruitful.
My concern with Fifita is that it can’t be THAT fruitful with his high likelihood of negative rushing yards on the season. He had 23 TDs in eight regular-season starts, which was quite impressive, but ten came in two games (USC in a triple-overtime game being one of them). In those other six games, he broke 300+ passing yards twice and averaged just over two passing touchdowns per game. That’s not going to get it done for an ADP in the mid-50s.
Marcus Carroll, Missouri, RB – ADP of 79
We’re all sitting here chasing Cody Schrader’s 2023 season, but we really shouldn’t. The running back position is a sexy spot for this offense, but not only is it trending towards Nate Noel having a significant role (aka an RBBC), it sounds like Noel could be the 1A to Carroll’s 1B. Both players are jumping from the G5 to play in the SEC, which is no easy task. They also have a legitimate WR1 in Luther Burden and a quarterback in Brady Cook, who is good with his legs. This is shaping into a sloppy situation that warrants Carroll being a bad value at pick 79.
Colston Loveland, Michigan, TE – ADP of 80
I’m a Michigan man sitting here telling you not to take Colston Loveland at pick 80. It’s terrible value! Anyone after Oronde Gadsden and Brant Kuithe is a bad pick at this position until the later rounds.
What makes 2024 different for Loveland in a positive fashion compared to 2023? Sure, there are fewer weapons in the passing attack with both starting receivers gone, but the quarterback play will be worse. There’s even a chance of fewer passing attempts! Alex Orji appears to be the likely starter, and his game is more ground and pound mixed with big deep play opportunities. I’m unsure where Loveland fits in here as a consistent weapon worth picking at pick 80.
Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State, WR – ADP of 25
Emeka is coming off an underwhelming season, and while he’s likely the WR1 for the Buckeyes, there’s some real competition here. Jeremiah Smith is an incredible talent who could vie for that top spot by season’s end. There’s also the fact that the offensive coordinator is now Chip Kelly. He’s not known for making fantasy studs at the receiver position.
While his fully taking over isn’t likely, it’s not a positive that he’s standing on the sidelines. You can look at 2022 when Egbuka was the WR2 and still managed 74/1,151/10, but tell me the similarities between that season and what we’ll see this year. There are none. Will Howard is not CJ Stroud, and the running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins isn’t going to run for 1,396 yards like Henderson and Miyan Williams did in 2022. Egbuka is an intriguing pick, but not for me at the beginning of the third round.
Isaiah Bond, Texas, WR – ADP of 52
This one I think will surprise people. Bond is an excellent talent and is in an offense that will throw for 3,000+ yards, but I’m worried about a few things. The receiver room is super deep, and it’s being thrown around that Silas Bolden, the Oregon State transfer, is battling for that WR1 spot.
I also worry about Xavier Worthy’s lack of insane production last season. Sure, they are not the same receiver, but I’m not loving 73/969/5 in 14 games for Worthy last season. This offense, even without Cedric Baxter, will still be good on the ground as well. I suspect we’ll see a fairly even offense that will be great but won’t make the WR1 worthy of a pick in the 50s.
