One big factor we often hear about for running backs is their size. As we look back through the years, their size has played a major role in how the NFL views them. In my high school model work, this discussion became the original idea for why I decided to create positional archetypes. It made little sense to compare guys like Devon Achane to Derrick Henry since they entered college and offered such different advantage points for their body types.
Based on the high school weight report on 247Sports for a common measurement, I used high school weight ranges to form my three running back recruit types: feature backs, role players, and satellite backs.
Feature guys were anyone listed as 200 pounds or more. Role players were in the 190s, and satellite was the term for anyone below 190. Plenty of data already shows that players, throughout their career, to the pro level as rookies, will gain about twelve to thirteen pounds on average. These groupings helped me further break down the odds of the players reaching that preferred 205+ NFL pound frame.
Feature guys are locked in bets for that. Role players should have a decent shot even in the lower 190s. Satellite guys typically don’t reach that weight or lose their explosiveness factor if they bulk too much. Plus, these numbers can sometimes be slightly inflated by services and schools, which further reinforces why each tier can provide a solid starting point from which to determine best bets.
This graph breaks down the recruiting classes from 2011 to 2022 as a starting point of reference for us to see the trends over the past classes, with a shot to be going pro here with some guys like Nicholas Singleton and others returning for a senior year of college.
Right away, we should notice that the top 15 and 30 groupings of RBs in the composite services tend to favor the bigger guys. This scenario is logical as teams will want more guys capable of handling more carries against the opposing defenses. But how does that affect the hit rates within each grouping? Let’s find out!
SATELLITE BACKS
Starting with my satellite backs weighing less than 190 pounds, 35 ranked in the top 15 of the classes here. That is approximately 19% of the names in this recruit class period. What are the names that stood out for the NFL?
Duke Johnson, Kenyan Drake, Ronald Jones, Nyheim Hines, Ty Chandler, James Cook, and Wan’Dale Robinson.
That is not a super inspiring list full of upside guys. One guy did not even remain a running back when he left college. Cook is by far the best of this group with upside and is not even close. Since Robinson swapped to WR, there is a grey area on whether he counts, but at best, we are talking about a 20% hit rate or lower if he’s out of the top names. We get a few more exciting names if we expand the list to the top 30 RBs under 190 pounds.
Devon Achane, Bucky Irving, Jonathan Brooks, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Bryce Love
That’s right. We expanded our sample from 35 to 92 guys in this weight range and added five relevant names. The last three added are questionable in terms of counting as relevant. If we are nice and count those three and Robinson from before, we get a 13% hit rate of NFL-relevant guys. The number of guys here who hit on a top level is even smaller.
ROLE PLAYERS
We should see a better result if we move over to the role-player recruit type that weighed in the 190s. The chart from before showed a bigger initial sample, with 57 names in the top 15 and a similar number, with 93 in the top 30.
Of the 57 names in the top 15 over the 2011-2022 recruit classes, here are the names who stood out for NFL upside:
Devonta Freeman, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, JK Dobbins, Keontay Ingram, Eric Gray, Jahmyrr Gibbs, Blake Corum, TreVeyon Henderson, Will Shipley, and Donovan Edwards
While some of these names like Ingram, Gray, Corum, Shipley (and possibly Edwards) have not been any factor for the NFL level, they made up the best of the rest essentially here. Without them, the hit rate is around 17.5%, but if we allow those names in, it bumps up to 26%, being NFL guys. As we grow our sample size to 93 names in the top 30 over the years, we include the following additions of NFL names to the above list:
Bishop Sankey, Michael Carter, Woody Marks (and Jadyn Ott next class)
If we are nice again, that gives us 19 names out of the sample with a hit rate of around 20%. Feel free to drop some names here of guys who you do not believe in and see the hit rate out of 93 for yourself.
FEATURE BACKS
We will work with our largest samples of 88 names in the top 15 and 175 in the top 30 for feature backs. Both those samples accounted for just under 50% of the names we had to work with in this study. Let me list off the ones who stood out in the top 15 in chronological order of recruitment:
TJ Yeldon, Todd Gurley, Alex Collins, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Damien Harris, Derrius Guice, Najee Harris, Cam Akers, DeAndre Swift, Brian Robinson Jr, Eno Benjamin, Trey Sermon, Zamir White, Dameon Pierce, Zach Charbonnet, Tyrion Davis-Price, Isaiah Spiller, Bijan Robinson, Zach Evans, Tank Bigsby, Marshawn Lloyd, Jase McClellan, Audric Estime, Corey Kiner, Phil Mafah, Nick Singleton, Omarion Hampton, Kaytron Allen, Trevor Etienne, and Jaydon Blue
That initial list is 34 players, which comes out to 38.6%, making it. Even if we remove some names we did not like over the years, that hit rate will be better than the other two categories with the hype they got or draft capital to move. Moving to the larger sample of big boys in the top 30, we add the following:
Melvin Gordon, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill, Samaje Perine, Kylin Hill, Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Taylor, Jerome Ford, Breece Hall, Kyren Williams, Devin Neal, Jordan James, and Ollie Gordon
A starting point of 48 names here gives us a 27.4% hit on NFL relevance. Remember that is double the satellite group and about 7% higher than the original percent I gave on the role player tier. This list leaves off Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, and Braelon Allen, who were athletes for the composite services.
TAKEAWAYS
We left off names outside the top 30 composites since we do not get a lot of hits like Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Quinshon Judkins types too often. Typically, we will find our relevant names in the Power Conference universities back then, and especially now with the new conference alignments.
The data shows that betting on the bigger athletes tends to work out more in our favor, even if it is to move in a trade later. The top 15 is especially encouraging, but a good process can help us find the best bets in any class, even in the top 30 or slightly outside. And do not be afraid to pivot off a guy with a decent weight if they are not showing out quickly in college.
ACTION MOVING FORWARD
If we look ahead to the current and recent years of recruiting classes, we need to be honest with ourselves that many here will not make it, especially when we see the recent trend of many smaller backs getting pushed into the top 15 and 30 range. I can not personally recommend any of them for true NFL upside. The odds are just super low.
We have a few promising names in the 190s, but again, they may not provide us much either. The main groups we will select from NFL drafts in 2026-2028 will end up being these 200+ guys, so keep that in mind as you construct your rosters for NFL pipelines.
