As 2025 comes to an end, I wanted to go back and look again at the idea of Year 1 Zero Theory for receivers and show just how powerful this tool can be for college fantasy, even in my process of career-tracking players with the best NFL future outlook.
For context, I do apply this theory to all receivers, even outside the top 300, as intended, because they are long shots for NFL relevance anyway. Being irrelevant in Year 1 only further jeopardizes the idea of being NFL fantasy-relevant later on, too. If they are long odds but can prove to be relevant in Year 1 by breaking that and having decent numbers per game, then it can be a nice stock boost for their careers.
Yes some rooms are crowded but in the words of Austin Nace’s original breakdown of this concept, “He (Jameson Williams) was able to take advantage of minimal playing time because he is a good player, and good players are what we are trying to identify.” so even in limited time we should see this happen in year 1 for most good players.
First, a reminder on the thresholds:
And then how does this impact their odds of NFL fantasy relevance (AND WHY IT IS SO VALUED):
Now, a reminder: for historical context, using only a dataset of receiver recruits in the top 300 has yielded very few breakthroughs in NFL results as a Year 1 Zero. The hits have been Jarvis Landry, DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, with Terry McLaurin and Nico Collins now (after the initial results, both joined) as the only guys who went on to have a top 12 season. That is five out of 270+ names now, so the odds are rough.
Breakdown of My Process
I want to transition this now to my process, which includes all receivers regardless of draft pedigree, further to highlight the value of the Year 1 zero theory. I have 339 receivers with whole careers mapped out from the 2015 to 2022 recruit class to provide a solid historical road map for our C2C present receivers, with more finishing up as bowl games and playoffs come to an end. I did not go quite as far back or as deep into history as I needed to get a solid base for mapping current C2C-relevant names.
Taking 339 players is solid for avoiding limited data samples; of those, 172 receivers were “Year 1 zeros,” regardless of their original pedigree as recruits. Year 2 seems to be the crucial step for most of my names to overcome that status, I have seen.
In Year 2, 138 receivers remained below 6.5 PPG for their careers. Our hits are Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Watson, and Chase Claypool. A JUCO, an FCS, and a Notre Dame receiver overcame the odds. Our next best names were Xavier Hutchinson, Pat Bryant, Xavier Restrepo, and Dontayvion Wicks.
Does anyone remember Hakeem Butler or Cedric Tillman? They also fell in this range but were hyped up for NFL hopes. We have seen the current results of even our best guys, and two of them were not even on the FBS level in Year 2 of college. Ultimately, we see 32 of these players hit 10+ PPG before their careers are over, but look what that really gave us for NFL hopes.
The Second and Third Groups
The second grouping I chose was for career PPG between 6.5 and 9.99 after Year 2. There were 138 guys in my first grouping, but only 15 made it into this range. It immediately caught my attention seeing Rome Odunze, Nico Collins, and Ladd McConkey all in this group. Even our following best names were much better, guys: Tre Harris, John Metchie, Jalen McMillan, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Mecole Hardman, and Alec Pierce.
For a broader cast of the theory, clearing 6.5 PPG in year 2 automatically shot up the results we liked. The guys who have been NFL irrelevant still ended up being solid for CFF purposes as 10/15 clear 10PPG FOR THEIR CAREER by Year 3, with Alec Pierce just missing it and Nick Nash hitting 14 PPG by the end of his career. A C2C-relevant group with NFL upside in the common devy landscape of FBS schools is an excellent rebound from a bad Year 1.
My final grouping focused on the dudes who immediately changed career trajectories in Year 2 by having a career 10+ PPG by the end of the second season. We have a sample of 19 guys here, with the top names being DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, and Oronde Gadsden, who converted to TE – subtract one if needed.
Also in this tier were Elic Ayomanor, Hollywood Brown, and Keon Coleman. That alone is four receivers we found here going top two rounds of the draft. People will even recognize some of the other names I will include here. And don’t worry, fantasy relevance lasted as only Malachi Wideman fell below 10 PPG for his full career. Almost half went over 14 PPG in their careers, and most over 13, which shows a big jump in extra games played as their careers progressed.
Takeaways
Year 1 Zero is brutal, but if you believe in a player’s path to rebound, then this is what you need. Averaging 6.5 PPG for their career by the end of Season 2 probably nets you a CFF-relevant name with some NFL upside. And 10+ PPG by the end of Season 2 just about means a locked-in C2C guy with a chance to be a solid NFL prospect.
You can look at the above players for the last tier and further break down the types of guys to target, but I need to move forward. If a guy is still failing to be relevant in Year 2, cut them, as the odds are already low from Year 1 to Year 2. Hitting this many NFL names above the second and final groupings shows a clear divide and exploit.
Applying the Data
Don’t worry I did update my model for the 2024 class as of December 28th so I can help provide some context on current college names too. First, the Year 1 zero tracker is 40 names deep in the 2025 class, so you see the path needed for the freshmen who are zeros, such as Jerome Myles, Talyn Taylor, Quincy Porter, Elijah Thomas, etc. Here is a quick reference list of some older names and NFL prospects who fell into these Year 1 zero groupings after Year 2.
