Son, in 35 years of religious study, I have only come up with two hard incontrovertible facts: there is a God, and I’m not Him.
– Father Cavenaugh, Rudy (1993)
Every year, there are players like Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love. That probably reads funny given that he may be the first and only RB selected in the first round in next year’s NFL Draft. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a special player.
However, what I’m talking about today is strictly from a College Fantasy Football (CFF) perspective. With that in mind, every year, there are players whose output in the previous season vastly overperformed their input volume. Love is one such player. He also belongs to another ‘type’ of CFF asset where his NFL draft evaluation is better than his CFF evaluation, which also muddies the discussion about him in a CFF context.
Last year, Love finished with a total of 19 TDs and over 1,350 yards. The catch? He did this on a total of 191 touches—not carries—touches. He averaged 11.3 touches per game (across 16 games). Rushing for 1,350 yards and 19 scores on 11 touches per game is extremely anomalous. Yes, that is in part influenced by Love’s immense talent, but it’s also a function of luck.
It’s not a coincidence that if you look at the top 20 RBs measured by rushing yards each season over the last four years, out of a total of 80 eligible candidates, only three carried the football less than 200 times. Let that sink in for a bit before continuing.
So, where does that leave our good friend J-Love? Well, suffice it to say it may be a long shot that he’s going to reproduce what he did last year in 2025 from a pure production standpoint. Then again, it was a long shot for Mr. Rudy Ruettiger to walk on to ND in the 70s
JLove proponents will no doubt argue that with QB Riley Leonard’s departure (184 carries, 906 yards, 17 scores), there will be more opportunities available. That could be the case, but my thinking is that it’s more likely those carries just convert into more passes with a more pass-first QB at the helm. JLove—even without a true workhorse role—has struggled with durability thus far.
And while he may end up improving slightly on his touch volume overall, the real problem with a player like this will be in predicting when he’ll have a big week ahead of time. On the aggregate, his 2025 numbers will likely be pretty strong again, but if you don’t know when to play him, it doesn’t do you much good.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 18.3 — OC: 17.1 (half ppr)
Looking at the ND staff, despite Freeman’s PPG averages being higher in the last three seasons, it’s OC Mike Denbrock who I would categorize as the star of the show. Two out of the three of Freeman’s RBs averaged 12 or fewer carries per game, despite a PPG average of 18.3.
Whereas with Denbrock, there are three examples in the last six years of his RB1 seeing 15+ carries per game, and one over 20+ carries per game in 2018. Yet, despite that, both coaches average about 13-14 carries per game for their top runner dating back to 2018.
The low carry volume could have potentially been offset if the Freeman/Denbrock system funnelled targets to the RB1, but even that is not the case. Freeman’s RB1s average 1.45 targets per game, and Denbrock’s 1.79.
In terms of play calling preferences, coaches are pretty aligned on their splits. Freeman has averaged 58% run plays over the last three seasons; Denbrock 56% over the last six seasons. Since Freeman has been the head coach at ND, the offense has routinely ranked among the slowest in the FBS, and that did not change in 2024 with Denbrock’s presence.
However, where there is a significant deviation (and this can be seen in Table 1) is that Denbrock at least has examples in his play calling career where the RB1 averaged 15-20 touches per game, which is a requisite amount for sustainable production. Unfortunately, we saw in 2024 that—despite the new OC—the ND RB1 remained a low-touch player.
What is strange is that it’s not like Freeman is against having his RB1 carry a larger share of the load (Audric Estime in 2023 saw 17 carries per game), but rather it seems that Love may not be the type of player who can handle this much volume without injury. We’ve already seen that—even without a heavy workload—Love has struggled to stay healthy thus far in his career.
Jeremiyah Love (6’0, 212)
2024 RUSHING STATS: 163 – 1124 – 17 (17.5 PPG)
Love, the former top-100 prospect from Missouri, is entering his third year and true junior season of college football. He appeared in 13 games as a freshman in 2023, rushing for 385 yards and two scores on 71 carries. He was hyper-efficient in 2024, averaging a phenomenal 6.9 yards per carry.
One of Freeman’s first marquee recruiting wins, Love chose ND over offers from Alabama, Michigan, and Texas A&M. In fact, he actually committed pre-game in one of ND’s most embarrassing losses in program history-2022’s loss to to Stanford. How’s that for some CFB lore for you?
On one hand, one might ask the question: What could he do with more volume in 2025? However, it is typically the case that there will be a negative relationship between volume and the YPC average. With the increase in carries, the YPC average would presumably fall.
Even still, from a CFF perspective, I would like to see Love’s touches be more consistent and more frequent. He scored 17 rushing TDs on 163 total carries—that’s a score every 9.5 carries. To me, this is not a sustainable pattern.
Rather, if you believe in Love as a 2025 CFF asset, you are more likely anticipating an increase in touches per game. With dual-threat QB Riley Leonard off to the NFL, and a (presumably) less mobile QB CJ Carr likely taking over, there should be an increased emphasis on the running backs to support the ground game. Seems logical.
Yet, I still remain concerned. Love has dealt with injuries already without the massive volume, and the staff—while they have some bright years—don’t really have a pattern of doling out huge volume to RB1.
The conventional wisdom I like to follow is to expect one rushing score every 100 yards. That would mean that Love probably should have scored around 11 times given his yardage, and certainly given his touches.
Even if his rushing production pulls back, that’s still a 1,100-yard-11 score player, with immense receiving upside as well. In my mind, this makes him a valuable bestball player—but I do not like this type of asset in standard formats where one is choosing starters each week.
ND starts their schedule with Miami, then a BYE, and then Texas A&M for the first three weeks. That’s not an ideal start, but it could certainly be worse. Love’s worst performances last year were vs. the tougher teams ND played: UGA (3.1), OSU (4.8), and PSU (12.1). Though it should be noted that those were all CFP matchups.
In the regular season, Love scored 10 points vs FSU (a blowout for ND), and scored 16 points in ND’s loss to NIU, and again vs. Texas A&M.
Call it “Irish Luck” or just plain randomness, but I think a lot of things went right for Love and ND last season. He’ll likely still be a good bestball asset, and his season-total numbers will look good by the end of 2025, but if you’re in a format where you have to choose when to play him, I don’t know that he’s worth the price to acquire him at the moment. It’s one thing to take a chance on a player like this in mid/later rounds. Spending a top-three selection feels steep.
