After stealing the idea from our good friends over at the Chasing The Natty Podcast, the C2C Devy Team got together and decided to give our very own panic meter for some of the bigger disappointments early in the year.
We’ll be rating them on a scale from 1-10, with 1 being not concerned at all and 10 meaning we are FREAKING OUT!
CONNER WEIGMAN, QB, TA&M
Although the sample size was small, Conner Weigman had given us brief flashes of potential before his season-ending injury in 2023. He was a high-pedigree recruit with great size and athleticism, enough to earn a .86 Star Index from our recruiting team. What’s not to like?
It’s only been two games, but Weigman hasn’t looked great post-injury. His only real competition came against Notre Dame, where Weigman only completed 40% of his passes, barely threw for 100 yards, and was responsible for two interceptions. On top of that, a mid-game injury in Week 2 opened the door for Marcel Reed to start last weekend, leading the Aggies to a win over Florida.
He’s also coming off a major injury, playing with a completely new supporting cast, and had a decent bounce-back against an inferior opponent in week two. Should we be giving him leniency? Or are there starting to be legitimate concerns with Weigman?
“Weigman hasn’t looked like an FBS level QB, let alone an NFL pick, even before his alleged shoulder injury. He’s been the biggest disappointment this season.” -AUSTIN NACE
“Weigman is still a talented quarterback, and his traits remain really intriguing. With the changes going on at Texas A&M, coming back from injury himself, and wide receiver limitations, I do not necessarily hold the slow start entirely against him. Since he is currently dealing with an injury, there is a buy low window, albeit risk if the injury and poor play continues to affect him. Marcel Reed did look good in his absence, but I tend not to excessively overreact based on the down week to start for Weigman.” -AARON WILCOX
OLLIE GORDON, RB, OKLAHOMA STATE
After bursting onto the scene in 2023, Ollie has started this season slowly. The workload has been there, but his efficiency hasn’t. He’s only averaging 3.5 yards per carry through three games, with two coming against a lower competition level.
Last season, Ollie led the entire nation in 15+ yard plays with 31. This season, his longest run through three weeks is twelve yards. His yards per carry average and yards after contact are both bottom ten numbers in the P4 for backs with a minimum of 30 carries. On the bright side, his missed forced tackle rate and receiving usage had remained steady, and he has one of the best pass-blocking grades in the country.
Ollie added significant weight this offseason, going from 211 pounds to 225 pounds. Is that new weight the issue? Or are we willing to give him leniency for an impressive resume and learning to play at a new weight?
“Coming into the season, we heard Ollie added some weight. I don’t want this to be the excuse but he hasn’t looked like the same player. He vision has been questionable but has succeeded in this offensive scheme. Against subpar competition at best, he’s failed to record an average of 4.0 yards a carry. He might improve as the season goes on but don’t fall for the bait. Ollie Gordon isn’t the top RB in this class and shouldn’t be in the discussion.” -MATT BRUENING
“I’ve leaned lower than Gordon than some, which may be why I am not worried as much. Teams are clearly selling out to stop the run and forcing Alan Bowman and Co. to beat them. That being said, Ollie is not a first round back and never has been. He can still be productive in the NFL” -AUSTIN NACE
ZACHARIAH BRANCH, WR, USC
Branch is undoubtedly one of the most electrifying players in college football. His athletic prowess has garnered comparisons to Tyreek Hill, and a promising freshman season gave us high expectations heading into year two.
Unfortunately, Branch hasn’t been able to break away from his schemed “gadget” usage. Almost all of his touches are coming behind the line of scrimmage, resulting in a negative aDot. He leads the Trojans in targets, but his 75 receiving yards are only good enough for fourth on the team.
Branch hasn’t taken the step forward we wanted to see as a more traditional receiver, but it’s possible he’s being pigeon-holed into a role on a team with other talented receiving options. His athleticism and pedigree will probably give him a solid value floor and a path to the NFL, but are we worried this will be another Rondale Moore?
“A negative ADOT is not what you want to see in Branch’s sophomore year after a not great ADOT of 6.3 last year. But, Miller Moss ranks 94th in ADOT amongst QBs with at least 65 drop backs and doesn’t have the arm to test down field. Branch likely won’t have the opportunity to show the ability to work down field this year. Branch may end up closer to Rondale Moore than Jaylen Waddle, but either way, he’s going to get the opportunity to prove himself in the NFL.” -COLIN DECKER
“It’s still early in the season, but this was the year we really wanted to see Branch take a step forward and expand his route-tree. If anything, it’s regressed. It worries me that this staff doesn’t view him as anything more than a gadget player, and that those preconceived notions will continue to follow him throughout his career.” – CORY PEREIRA
RAHEIM SANDERS, RB, SOUTH CAROLINA
It’s been an up-and-down road for Raheim Sanders, but he may finally return to health during his first season with the Gamecocks. His impressive showing against LSU gave us memories of the player we fell in love with a few years back, But is he still the same player?
Raheim was another victim of unnecessary weight gain last offseason. Add a nagging knee injury, and 2023 was essentially a lost season. Sanders has come into the year healthy this year and seems to be getting better as the season goes on. His missed tackles forced rate is one of the best in the country, and he’s already broken off more 15+ yard plays in three games than he did in all of 2023.
If we are comparing him to his 2022 season, it does look like the injuries have affected some of the juice we saw from “Rocket” early in his career. His receiving usage has also taken a dip, which could present some concerns about his projection to the NFL. Is he going to be more of an early-down banger? Or can he return to that versatile threat we saw as a sophomore?
“Even with the dropping of 10+ LBs, Raheim still looks like he is running in quicksand, laterally and linearly, to be a top ten back in the upcoming 2025 draft class.” -JUSTIN MASSIE
“Raheim Sanders has hit 21.3 MPH this season, and while he may not “look” to be fully back to his peak, he has seemingly regained some of his burst. He has cut down some weight from his peak of 240 pounds, and has the three down skillset including receiving abilities that you covet at the position. He has been able to step back into being a full time workhorse back again, and much of the prior concerns should be reduced at this time.” -AARON WILCOX
GERMIE BERNARD, WR, ALABAMA
When Germie followed his head coach Kalen DeBoer from Washington over to Alabama, it was pretty easy to get excited about his potential. Alabama’s receiving core was incredibly thin, and Deboer had just finished putting three highly-touted receivers into the NFL.
Nobody really expected just how much of an impact true freshman Ryan Williams, who currently leads the team in receiving, would have. DeBoer also seems to be playing more to the strengths of QB Jalen Milroe instead of the high-volume passing attack we’ve come to know from him, resulting in lower volume for the receivers in general.
It’s not that Bernard has necessarily been bad, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to achieve the production profile he’ll need to get a stronger look from the NFL with this type of offense. His resume doesn’t have much on it to this point, and a middling year could result in him returning for another season. Should we be worried about his NFL projection?
“Since Week 1, Bernard has led Alabama in targets in each of the last two games. Williams brings the explosive, down field skill set that meshes well with Milroe. But, Bernard is showing the ability to work down field (13.8 ADOT) while also showcasing a versatile skill set (43% slot, 56% wide). Bernard is showing us everything we want to see, minus the counting stats.” -COLIN DECKER
“Bernard has flashed but never has dominated targets. He is not significantly separating himself at Alabama and the volume of the passing attack will also limit his numbers. However, my expectations were tempered to start the season. Ultimately with Bernard’s lack of a true breakout against somewhat weaker competition to start the season, it definitely warrants some concern.” -AARON WILCOX
KALEB JACKSON, RB, LSU
Kaleb was everyone’s favorite breakout running back this offseason, but starting the season has been a struggle. The opportunity has been there, with the second-most attempts on the team, but he’s only been able to muster up a meager 3.5 yards per carry.
Speed and power have always been staples of Jackson’s game, which is why his 2.29 yards after contact this season are so surprising. He’s failed to reach 30 rushing yards in any game this season and his opportunity could be dwindling with the rising play of the LSU backfield.
Jackson added weight this offseason, a common theme for the running backs on this list, and it’s fair to wonder if it’s affected his play. He boasts an impressive set of traits, but should we be starting to worry about him? Or is it too early to be concerned?
“It’s hard not to be disappointed in what Jackson has put on the field so far, but I think it’s too early. We know that we only really need to see one or two good seasons from a running back, and Kaleb has the youth and traits that I covet. I don’t think the weight gain was his best decision and hope he realizes that after this season, but he’ll still get plenty of opportunities to regain his value.” -CORY PEREIRA
“We expected them to commit to him as the lead back this offseason. It’s been anything but that. With the added weight gain he looks less explosive and dynamic. Caden Durham – while a limited sample size – has looked like the best back. Jackson could end the year as the third back in a full blown committee and never regain this job.” -MATT BRUENING
EVAN STEWART, WR, OREGON
A transfer to Oregon this offseason was supposed to open the door for Stewart to finally show us the receiver we know he can be, but a busy room of talented pass-catchers has resulted in a spread-out target share.
Stewart only has one showing of more than 30 yards through three weeks and has struggled to establish rapport with new Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel. Of the four pass-catchers with 10+ targets on the team, Stewart has the lowest catch rate and the fewest amount of yards. On the bright side, his 16 targets are good enough for second on the team, and Oregon’s schedule has been fairly light to start the year, meaning the Ducks haven’t really needed to lean on Stewart.
A good amount of targets and a tougher schedule should result in much better outings down the stretch, but until now, Stewarts profile remains a lot of projection. Should we be concerned about his trajectory?
“Stewart has played well this season and is getting open consistently. The target roulette at Oregon May keep him from hitting lofty fantasy statistics, but if he continues to play as he is and stays healthy, he should be fine.” -AUSTIN NACE
“When you consider the price it took to acquire Stewart this offseason, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll live up to his expectations. Nagging health issues have been a concern and we are still living off of the flashes of potential, especially when you compare him to the other receivers priced in his area. There’s still plenty to like about his skill-set, but I can’t help being disappointed in the production profile to this point.” -CORY PEREIRA
