The Underdog CFP contest, The CFP Crown, is over two-thirds full, but I wanted to spend a second to talk specifics. There are a few teams and players where I think we can gain an advantage, so why not dig in a little bit here? If you’re looking for the basics of how to handle these drafts, then be sure to check out my first article here!
Julian Sayin as the 1.01
Sayin is not a bad pick, but if you’re taking him at 1.01, then you’re very likely going to miss out on Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. On top of that, it’s unlikely that you can grab Bo Jackson to help with filling out five players available for the national championship. I would much rather take Sayin at 1.03 or 1.04, where I can evaluate the likelihood of getting Smith/Tate. Or even better, I like taking Smith and seeing if Sayin falls back to me. Worst case, I can likely grab Jackson, or I can build the lineup with four players from the TTU/Indiana side of the bracket to pair with Smith.
Oregon Players
Oregon players are starting to see their value creep up, and with good reason. They have a massive implied team total in the first round of the playoffs, and are widely considered one of the top five contenders for the national championship, potentially even the fourth most likely to win it all. Taking Oregon players also provides real flexibility with how you can build out the rest of your team. You’re able to draft potentially 6-8 players that play in the first round, which helps your advance rate quite a bit.
Cayden Lee, Ole Miss WR
Are we drafting Ole Miss receivers all wrong? Looking at that group, Cayden Lee’s ADP is 38.5 (Harrison Wallace III – 24.1 and De’Zhaun Stribling – 33), yet there’s not that much that separates the three. Lee’s target share is 12.2%, so it’s 1-3% off from a full-season perspective, but if you look at their last five games, you’ll see that Lee is tied with Stribling for the second most with 24 targets.
Wallace outshines everyone with 34 targets, but his ADP reflects that. Lee leads the team with 11 yards per target, so some of that big play potential that we’re looking for on Underdog scoring is there for us. As I wrap up drafts, I’ll be targeting Lee more than Stribling late at the very least.
J’Koby Williams, Texas Tech RB
I’ve been a big fan of Williams since that big bowl game performance last season, and this season, he did quite well for himself while splitting touches with Cameron Dickey. Williams is a guy who easily could see 15+ touches weekly and is a great “stack” with Behren Morton. Cameron Dickey is the better all-around option, but Williams is significantly cheaper and allows for a unique build if you want to go this route. The Red Raiders are a fairly cheap team overall and are a team I like to focus on advancement rate first (think Lacy, Chambliss, Whittington types) before diving into Texas Tech stacks.
