During Balling with My Bestie, Ethan and I dug into the data from this past season to discuss what worked and what didn’t for Underdog’s best ball tournaments. Specifically, what do we need to look for at the quarterback position? Not surprisingly, we discussed volume and ability to run. We also discovered that passing volume, if high enough, helped secure a top 25 P4 ranking for fantasy points per game. So, I’ve broken down quarterbacks into three categories that help predict success on Underdog.
There are 31 quarterbacks that you should be drafting in 2025. Forget the other 39 quarterbacks and focus strictly on these guys if you’re looking for a top 25 performer!
285+ Pass Yards per Game
-Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
-Josh Hoover, TCU
-Rickie Collins, Syracuse
-Behren Morton, Texas Tech
-Carson Beck, Miami
-Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
In 2024, all seven quarterbacks that threw for 285 or more yards finished in the top 25. When you think about it, that’s not too surprising. Success through the air via yards usually means finding the end zone. As we discussed on the debut of Balling with My Bestie, volume is king whether it’s on the ground or through the air.
Nussmeier and Hoover are about as much of a lock as it gets to doing this in 2025. Their systems are pass-heavy, and they’re proven. From there, though, there’s plenty of projection. Does Rickie Collins continue to throw as often as Kyle McCord does? Can Behren Morton take the next step up from 278 passing yards per game in 2024 to 2025? How will Carson Beck’s arm recover post-injury? Does Austin Simmons win the job and be close to Jaxson Dart in passing production?
Beck’s injury raises doubts, but he’s a non-zero rushing the football and should be successful in Miami’s offense. The one to question here is Collins at Syracuse. McCord easily cleared this 285+ number, but will Syracuse throw the ball 60% of the time, as in 2024? They ran 76 plays per game, so that should certainly help if they run the ball more this season.
45+ Rush Yards per Game
-John Mateer, Oklahoma
-LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
-Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
-Haynes King, Georgia Tech
-Demond Williams, Washington
-Thomas Castellanos, FSU
-Devon Dampier, Utah
-Kaidon Salter, Colorado
-Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech
-Taylen Green, Arkansas
-Avery Johnson, Kansas State
-Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
It’s not just passing volume that we care about at this position. It’s also about success on the ground. Eight of the ten quarterbacks that ran for 45+ yards per game in 2024 ended up in the Top 25. The two that didn’t reach that level were Ashton Daniels and Marcel Reed. Daniels was a bad quarterback who could only run in a bad offense, but Reed likely hits the Top 25 mark if he was a starter all season. His fantasy points per game total were skewed by limited action against McNeese State and Missouri.
The list of who can and will do it in 2025 is quite lengthy. I think 12 can do it, and that’s not even a stretch. Mateer, Sellers, Pavia, King, Dampier, Salter, Johnson, and Reed all did it this past season. Taylen Green barely missed the mark when looking at the regular season but does top 45+ rush yards when including the bowl game.
Thomas Castellanos and Kyron Drones had treacherous seasons in 2024, but easily hit this mark in 2023. The only player we’re having to project is Demond Williams. He played limited snaps most of his freshman season and ran for over 20 yards per game. It’s really his best attribute, and he is a guy many of us at Campus2Canton suspect is in line for a huge season.
250+ Combined Pass/Rush Yards and 25 Touchdowns
-Arch Manning, Texas
-Cade Klubnik, Clemson
-Jake Retzlaff, BYU
-Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
-Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
-Rocco Becht, Iowa State
-Dante Moore, Oregon
-Julian Sayin, Ohio State
-Jayden Maiava, USC
-Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
-Zevi Eckhaus, Washington State
-Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
-Kevin Jennings, SMU
This past year, 22 of the top 25 quarterbacks in the P4 hit this mark. The only three that did not reach 250+ yards were Haynes King, Riley Leonard, and Diego Pavia. These were elite runners that were heavily relied upon around the end zone. Unsurprisingly, their passing deficiencies mattered little overall, considering how they are as runners.
Finding the end zone is extremely important when the volume isn’t likely there. In total, I have 24 quarterbacks hitting both of these marks. Just eleven of them will attempt 400+ passes, and just six of them will run for 45+ yards per game.
This group of 250/25+ is a tricky one. I don’t feel confident in who wins the Ohio State job (I have Julian Sayin), but I can’t imagine whoever wins the job won’t hit this mark. Dante Moore will be a first year starter for Oregon, but he and the system have shown me enough to include. Zevi Eckhaus is in a similar boat as Moore at Washington State with the potential to clear the 285+ pass yard mark since he won’t be used on the ground as much as Mateer was this past season.
Fernando Mendoza hit the 250+ pass yard mark but not 25+ touchdowns with Cal, but he should be able to hit it with Indiana. Arch Manning has shown tons of promise but has limited game action in his Texas career. The 250/25+ mark should be easy to clear in Sarkisian’s offense as his floor. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he hit 285+ pass yards or 45+ rush yards per game when it’s all said and done.
Honorable Mentions
-Miller Moss, Louisville
-Jackson Arnold, Auburn
-Jake Retzlaff, BYU
Three quarterbacks got very close to being included but just fell short. Moss at Louisville should clear the 250+ mark, but I doubt he’ll hit 25+ touchdowns in 2025. Jackson Arnold’s situation is quite similar, with him being in a new time, which should give him volume, but how much will he score?
Retzlaff may have been the toughest to leave out as he combined for over 260+ yards and totaled 26 touchdowns in 2024. If you look at how he ended the season, though, he scored just five times in his final four games (including the bowl game) and, in those games, saw his rushing success drop as well.
