As the season creeps nearer and nearer to its midway point, we are starting to have a large enough sample size to lean into performance data from this year to inform good decisions moving forward. Week Six brings us a consistent slate of same-on-same conference matchups to our liking. So with that, let’s jump into some of my favorite plays.

Wednesday – John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) Less Than 27.5 Fantasy Points

Courtesy of Willie J Allen | Orlando Sentinel

We get an early game this week as the SMU @ UCF matchup was pushed into this week due to Hurricane Ian. This game has an over/under at 61.5 points, and the Golden Knights have an implied team total of 32.25. We will likely have a shootout on our hands, so why am I recommending the “less” on Plumlee’s projection? Well, the first reason is touchdown variance. In a Gus Malzahn offense, the run game is king, and Isaiah Bowser and Johnny Richardson are both legitimate options in every situation for them– including in the red zone.

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