The dawn of Week Zero is officially upon us as PrizePicks has posted their first lines for the slate. As we saw throughout last year, jumping on these lines early provides a sizable advantage and an edge that should help us cash in from week to week. So let’s dive in and see what early lines we like heading into this appetizer for the College Football season.
Jordan Travis (Florida State) Over 214.5 Passing Yards
Travis only crossed the 214.5 mark in passing yards twice in 2021 (Miami and Boston College). However, I feel good about this matchup and want to point out a few differences surrounding the Seminole QB this Fall. First, Duquesne is a more favorable matchup than any Travis saw last season. The Dukes went 7-3 against lower-level competition but beat Ohio in Week 2. The most comparable matchup they had with Florida State was their season opener against TCU. TCU’s starting QB Max Duggan threw for 202 yards while only playing the first half. Mike Norvell’s offenses have also thrown the ball at a 7% higher clip than Gary Patterson’s teams over the past three years (44.1% compared to Patterson’s 37%). Adding to this matchup, Duquesne is replacing the top five leading tacklers on their defense from last season. I expect a few big plays that will help buoy Travis’ stat line.
Outside of the matchup, the situation projects for some growth from Travis as well. Travis enters the season with job security and added confidence. He shouldn’t be rotating snaps unless the game is well out of hand – and if it is, that means Travis did his job. Furthermore, I expect Norvell will emphasize getting Travis in rhythm with a massive game against LSU looming in Week 1. Even if we only get one half of Travis, he could still easily hit this number.
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