Welcome to the final week of the regular season, or what I refer to as the last week I don’t pay attention to my opponents in my matchups. What’s in store for Week 11? Let’s find out!
Set My Man Free
Every year I campaign for a staff to #Free a certain running back. Previous candidates have included Izzy Abanikanda, RJ Harvey, Kenneth Walker, and Ousmane Kromah. Now I’m throwing my hat in the ring for San Diego State’s Javion Kinnard.
I don’t want to hear the nonsense that he is too small (5’8″, 180 lbs). Marquez Cooper was basically the same size, and Sean Lewis rode him to three seasons with over 250 touches. Kinnard has been the superior rusher in the SDSU backfield lately based on analytical data and what my eyes tell me. I’m not saying Lucky Sutton needs to be banished to the shadow realm, but I am saying the run split needs to be at least 60/40 Kinnard; not 60/40 Sutton.
The Sudden Fantasy Death of Anthony Evans
It was a swift and stark change when Anthony Evans lost Kamario Taylor. Evans was on track for a top-10 WR season through the first five games, averaging 25.6 PPG. Since Kamario went down, he’s gone 16-92-0 over his last three games, averaging just 8.4 PPG. The fact that his target share remains healthy gives him hope in Week 12 vs. Tenn Tech, but the quality of those targets has dropped dramatically. Kamario was the tide. Evans was the boat.
Wayyyy Too Early QB Carousel
Miami– They will have their pick of the litter. They have pulled someone out of the draft, taken a starter from a title contender, and paid off a $4 million contract to tamper another guy. It would not shock me if they target a high-profile option in the Ward/Mensah mold like Mestemaker, Dante Moore, or Braden Atkinson. Lanorris Sellers is also very much in play. Or they could drop a tier and snatch Dampier, Demond Williams, Mason Heintschel, or CJ Bailey.
Texas Tech – They wagered on the wrong horse last time, but with the addition of Sorsby and Castellanos, it was abundantly clear McGuire wants a mobile QB. Look for Cody Campbell’s oil money to target one of the Utah QBs, Mike Hawkins, Avery Johnson, Hauss Hejny, or Marcus Stokes.
Indiana– Cig loves experience and stability at QB. Outside of that, he doesn’t really have a type. He’s had both dual-threat and pocket passers start for him at IU and JMU. Nick Minicucci, Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Austin Simmons, CJ Bailey, and Dampier could all be in play here.
USC – The rumor mill is heavily leaning toward Avery Johnson here. A Demond Williams, CJ Bailey, or Malik Washington reclamation project under Lincoln wouldn’t surprise me here either.
Wide Receiver Data Points
Here are the only WRs that have at least 30 targets, 2.5 yards per route run, and an average depth of target beyond 15 yards:
Only a couple of guys are in their first or second year, so this feels like more evidence that Jaylon Hawkins is on the path to a strong career. Interestingly, only DJ Epps (99.4%) and Jesse Legree (47.1%) spend more than 21% of their snaps in the slot.
Consider Me…Intrigued
A few guys had a breakout performance last week that may seem like an anomaly, but the signs have been there all along and just needed the opportunity. Better late than never.
Cameron Wallace, Penn State – Matt Campbell sounds pretty high on the veteran who went 22-135-1 against Purdue. He runs a sub-11.0 100-yard dash, tops 21 MPH, and has vastly outperformed Hanson and Peoples in every metric (small sample size). Let’s see if he keeps it going against a soft remaining schedule of UW, MN, Rutgers, MD.
Brandon Smith, Oregon – This freshman went for 114 yards and a TD while filling in for the injured Jordan Davison and Dierre Hill. All the offseason hype seems to be coming to fruition now. The kid can scoot. We’ll see what he can do with Davison likely out for a bit.
Seth Cromwell, JMU – There was little to no drop-off with George Pettaway out. Cromwell went for 154 yards and a TD against Troy. The Week 12 bye is a bummer, but he has Southern Miss, UConn, and Coastal otherwise. He could have a monster outing with Pettaway out this week.
Cheers and good luck!
