We now have 3+ weeks of data on the CFB season. While still a small sample size, it is something to work with to identify anything trending toward relevance. So, this week’s Pulse will be data forward. But first, I have a bone to pick with one program.
It’s Time to Reveal Yourself
It’s time, Tennessee. Show us your goods. Please flash us…at wide receiver. Through three weeks, you have scored 191 points. You are historically one of the top systems in producing a CFF WR (or two). And yet, your leader in targets (Bru McCoy) has just 16, and none of them have gone for touchdowns. Your leader in yards (Dont’e Thornton) has just five receptions. Hell, Miles Kitselman leads your team in touchdown receptions with two!!! I don’t even know who that is.
Just two years ago, the Vols were a program that consistently played just three receivers almost exclusively. They travel to Norman this weekend to officially introduce the Sooners to the SEC. Here is hoping they also reveal to us their real WR rotation and cut the crap with playing randos off the streets like Kitselman. No offense to Mr. and Mrs. Kitselman. For all I know, their son could be the future pride of Topeka, Kansas. But people paid good money investing in Squirrel and Brazzell.
Many of us in the CFF world, myself included, often look for the dual-threat, league-winning QBs. It is why QBs like Byrum Brown and Kaidon Salter go so early in drafts. However, QB rushing production can be difficult to predict. So, let’s remove scrambles when the play breaks down and focus solely on designed run calls. This doesn’t tell the entire story, as some guys like Raynor and Dampier love to scramble. But it potentially gives us a better idea of the staff’s play-calling tendencies, intentions, and willingness to run their QB. Here are the top QBs with nine or more Designed Rush Attempts per game, according to PFF.com:
Keep an eye on Marcel Reed who didn’t qualify due to only playing a game and a half, but had 11 designed rush attempts in his first start last week against Florida. Also, Avery Johnson only had six in his first two games but recorded 11 designed rush attempts last week against Arizona in his 110-yard effort. He had multiple games of 16+ last year. Here is hoping that continues for his owners.
Not A Bad Dude…Dude He Just Been Bad
Kaleb Jackson (duh): It’s a disaster. 3.5 YPA, one missed tackle forced on 21 attempts, and one run of 10+ yards. To make things worse, Caden Durham entered the mix against USCe and looked more than capable of stealing snaps from Jackson.
Cam Cook: 3.9 YPC, 2.47 yards after contact/attempt, which is below the 3.0 I generally look for, just one run of 15+ yards, a breakaway percentage of 10.2%, which is below the 30% minimum we like, and two drops on just ten targets. His production is buoyed by his four TDs in three games. However, unlike Kaleb Jackson, there appears to be no one behind Cook to challenge him for the job.
Ollie Gordon: 3.2 YPC, 2.54 yards after contact/attempt, and zero runs longer than 15+ yards, thus a breakaway percentage of 0% on 69 carries after having 31 rushes of 15+ yards and a breakaway percentage of 54.8%. Maybe the fall injury is still lingering.
Quarterback Hot Seat Watch
I plan to occasionally address the relevant quarterback changes that could be on the horizon. This will save us the time of discussing the more obvious ones, like Florida or NC State, and the irrelevant ones, like Kentucky.
Stanford: It is only a matter of time before Elijah Brown takes this job from Ashton Daniels. The staff is smitten by Brown, and he showed why as he went 7/7 with a TD in late relief during his first game action. The Cardinal offense has struggled, and they have cross-country road trips to Syracuse, Clemson, and Notre Dame over the next four weeks with VaTech mixed in. I fully expect the hook within the next month.
Texas A&M: Perhaps I am getting ahead of myself with Marcel Reed as I might have with Alonza Bennett, but oh baby, Reed gives me all the feels! There is no way you can watch Reed, with all his dynamism and electricity, and tell me the stiff, fragile Connor Weigman is a better fit for this Collin Klein system. Elko described the Aggies starting QB job as a “game-time decision the rest of the season.” Reed ain’t giving this gig back IF he starts vs Bowling Green and Miss St.
Washington: October 19. That is when I am predicting Fisch turns the page to the Demond Williams show. UW has a get-right game hosting Northwestern this week but then travels all the way to Rutgers, hosts Michigan, and then goes to Iowa. The bye week on October 19 sets up well for a transition from Will Rogers, should UW be 3-4.
I’m also watching Arky State, JMU, and FAU.
I Ain’t Buying It!
Trebor Pena, Syracuse : 12-166-4 receiving ; 4-6-1 rushing through two games
I have refused to pay up on waivers for Pena. He is a fine player with a solid QB and a cushy schedule. He might continue to pop over the next few weeks vs. Stanford and Holy Cross. But I see fool’s gold. Five TDs on 16 touches? He’s actually third in targets for the Orange. This is his fifth year at Syracuse, and he had a total of one TD on 28 touches prior to 2024. It would not shock me if Zeed Haynes put up comparable numbers the rest of the way.
Cheers to week four!
