When it comes to gaining the edge on best player bets in Campus to Canton (C2C) leagues, we often try to find the advantage in every way possible. To do that with college quarterbacks, I believe it is important to consider avoiding statue-type quarterbacks. Athletic quarterbacks are the new game trend, so old-school pocket passers who struggle to move are falling behind.
I also think proven production for these quarterbacks is an important factor to consider. Betting on projects with no proven success at the easiest level of competition they will see (high school) is tough. Then, we expect solid growth for college and hopefully the NFL one day, with the current college landscape offering programs a shortcut to other options that have shown more at the college level. Little to no opportunity in college can kill our NFL hopes for players.
Using the C2C Athleticism Tool
With those aspects in mind, I combined the talent of the Campus2Canton Athleticism Tool with the model work I have done for high school production scores in Approaching the Pros high school model to narrow down the list of guys we should be trying to prioritize on our college rosters, with some exceptions for each class.
To try and keep the field as level as possible, I will only focus on guys in the 2026-2028 draft eligible classes. This is because the athleticism tool updates for NFL guys with new data, so I do not want to influence the data from high school recruits to NFL prospects. The cut-offs I will use in this exercise are a star index score of 0.70 or higher to show upper-tier athleticism and an arm velocity of 52+ MPH. The mph may be slightly lower than the preferred number of NFL talent, but it does provide a solid floor for potential error. From a production standpoint, I will focus on high school scores of 70+ to show some proven results of being successful on a per-game basis in high school.
Before I get started, let me show the list of all starting quarterbacks in the NFL with their scores in these categories for reference:
We need to remember that these athleticism scores are updated throughout their college careers, but there is some connection between our best bets from high school to the NFL by tracking these three metrics. The few older names in the league who lack high school model scores were prior college players from when my model started tracking results. We also need to keep in mind that their star index scores and velocity numbers would be the most updated the team has, instead of coming out of high school. Therefore, we see why all this matters, but there is some gray area that might exist.
Let’s start with the 2026-2028 draft-eligible guys, and then I will include an early teaser of the 2029 draft class (2026 recruits).
Met All 3 Aspects
This first group of 2026 eligible draft names met all three components in our search. Unsurprisingly, we see several of the top names, including Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers, and Sam Leavitt, here. It also bodes well for some of the fun bets we can make with the others here.
We have three starters entering Year 2 in their systems with Robertson, Maiava, and Avery Johnson. These three seem like fun sleeper picks. We have two coming off injuries in Drones and Byrum Brown. Neither guy at this point seems like a good NFL prospect. Three other starters are moving to new systems with Arnold, Weigman, and Iamaleava. They may not end up declaring for 2026, but their careers could be revived with new offenses and schemes for a possible 2027 turnaround. That 2027 aspect will be important to note in a moment.
Of the 2027 group, Lagway is the only one who is still viewed as a big-time name to know for the 2025 season. I expect we will see Lagway deliver on his potential if healthy. Walker White had an opportunity last year for Auburn but will now sit behind Sawyer Robertson for a chance at redemption down the road. Michael Hawkins was in and out for Oklahoma as they played musical chairs with him and Jackson Arnold. He stuck around and now will get a chance to develop further behind John Mateer before we get to see further what he can do with more experience.
Hejny is the wildcard of this group, as we have not seen him attempt any college passes, but he is now in the running to be the starting quarterback in Year 2 for Oklahoma State after transferring from TCU. Two quarterbacks left Oklahoma State this spring, so there is a decent chance for Hejny to use his athletic tools to win out the job from Zane Flores.
People have been discussing the possible strength of 2025 recruits (2028 NFL class) being the quarterback class, and it delivers with the hype here on the metrics. The top eight names have consistently gone in the top three rounds of supplemental drafts, which may be for good reason in the grouping here. Manske gets a little love from the C2C team, so he is on people’s radars and could be a value play at Iowa State after Becht. Jones and Kollock will look to make an impact at Texas Tech and Minnesota, respectively, in the future and should be on watch lists. The next group passed the Campus2Canton aspects but failed the high school production.
Met Athletic Metrics but Failed Production
For the group who failed high school production, we see that some NFL exceptions ended up close with guys like Lamar Jackson, JJ McCarthy, and Michael Penix. The other exceptions are dynamic developers like Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and Cam Ward. Tyler Shough can be the guy who falls in between. If we see how these match up with the old success stories, I would mark Taylen Green and John Mateer as the ones to know. Both players are great athletes for the position and were very close to the passing mark for high school production.
Our next group for the 2027 class is technically not a college football player in the fall of 2025. Cherry suffered a knee injury in a practice during the 2024 playoff stretch for Indiana and is using this season to serve as a student coach on the team. The earliest we may see him return is 2026.
Our athletes with the tools for this 2028 class are Ty Hawkins at SMU and Adam Schobel at TCU. The good thing about both these quarterbacks is that they sit in the 60s on production, so they were not far off while offering an athletic upside. This is a good sign for those wanting to invest for the future.
Met MPH and HS Production
For this third group, I see these six names as our other tier to consider for NFL upside in the 2026 draft. This is important because we see only seven of the 26 NFL QBs with high school scores that do not meet the minimum threshold. Players can improve their athleticism with more experience and conditioning in these programs, so as the tool updates the numbers with new performances for these players, I believe that most here can move close enough to cross over that 0.700 star index rating we want.
2027 carries a lot of upside as Sayin looks like the lead man for Ohio State this fall. He has a terrible star index as he is not an all-around athlete but meets the other standards. This is encouraging as he should be able to maintain the ship if he does take the job. CJ Bailey also has a poor star index but I believe may be a very high upside play in C2C leagues. I did a whole profile on his outlook but the back half of the season showed a lot of growth for a guy who was meant to be the backup behind Grayson McCall as a freshman before plans changed.
Two players out of this 2025 recruit class with big support fall into this next tier of meeting the production and arm strength thresholds but failing the athletic tool. JKS and Lewis may both see playing time as true freshmen but be careful on overprojecting their upside. Both of these players fell into my “statue” tier for QBs just as a heads up on how nervous I might be about them.
Only Pass Velocity
For these next two, I lumped them together in a similar section because the top group only meets one condition, which is arm strength based on velocity. However, we have seen a rise in these names for known value despite their lackluster high school careers and star index. If they can make it to the NFL draft, there is a small chance they can improve their star index rating and be an outlier on the high school production metric.
That top row, for example, of Hoover, Simmons, Jennings, and Moss were all in the 60s for my high school production scores, so they were not far off from being part of the previous group. That production score is also significant for a guy like Simmons, who left two years early, so there was a chance he could have climbed higher had he stayed at least one more year in high school. The bottom four names were among the lowest I had coming out, so I have more doubt on their journeys for NFL ceilings.
Well, this won’t go over well, I am sure, if certain people find this blurb in the article. Raiola is a popular name, but may offer a limited ceiling play for those interested. His arm strength is good, but he has not been an athlete or superstar performer since high school. The arm strength being solid is surprising, as he did not use it much with a very low adjusted yards per pass attempt of 6.30. That is not the end of the world if he was smart with the ball, but we saw the freshman make many mistakes with almost the same number of touchdowns as interceptions. Raiola had an 8-10 TD-INT ratio if you focus just on conference play. He is not offering anything on the ground to compensate for the limited passing element. He could improve in Year 2, but there are a lot of possible concerns here, as he missed two of the metrics.
Malik Washington is the final name of the top 11 names that typically go high in supplemental drafts. While Washington does offer more rushing upside than Raiola, he still did not show top tier ability to add to his game. I know a lot of hope is being forced on him to change the narrative around Maryland but I want to express some healthy doubt into this. The team is replacing a lot of the offense all across the board so getting everyone up to speed and gelling will be tough.
Only Pass Production
The second one condition group are those who only passed production scores. 2026 gives us a group of Kienholz, Chiles, and Pribula. Chiles and Pribula look like the locked-in starters for their schools with a lot of growth needed to show their talents. It is interesting how people refer to their arms and ability to extend plays as a runner when the athletic tools do not support this hypothesis. I would be concerned if I was banking on either as NFL guys. Kienholz is “in a battle” for the starting job at Ohio State, but it appears the team is opting for Sayin so we may not see him until 2026 starting for a team.
Once again we are banking on some college production for the 2027 class too as these guys may not be able to handle the NFL. Williams is the current high upside CFF guy that players are chasing but it is almost ironic that the previous class gave us Aidan Chiles who people once chased too. Carr should be the starter for Notre Dame who can spread the ball around but may be limited on offering much of a value play even in college since he lacks the rushing upside. Merklinger just got benched with the signing of Aguilar to Tennessee so it is unlikely he will be much.
Fails All
The last group here of Holstein, Dampier, and Sorsby all look to be fun college guys. The list could have been deeper, but this select group was at least on the top 50 radar for college quarterbacks. Their arms may not be NFL caliber or athletic enough to shoot up draft boards, which is fine. They also had low production scores out of high school, illustrating a reason to be patient with them as they develop. None of them played as freshmen, but got shots to show some flashes as sophomores. We saw Sorsby take another step as a junior, so there is a chance to see the other two do something similar. It is doubtful anyone will declare for the 2026 class.
2026 Recruits/ 2029 Draft Class
For the final section, I wanted to offer a glimpse into the 2026 class with a very early preview of who is hitting all the metrics, who is meeting the athletic components but needs to add a big senior year, and a few guys with bigger scores but want to see physically develop. The top group is showing all promise to join the past top names. The next tier failed my production metrics but passed C2C aspects. The last four names are guys I think we need to note for C2C leagues because of their upside as productive juniors with traits for more.
