My final part of the series will look at receivers, combining the athletic traits analyzed by Campus2Canton with my data work on high school production to evaluate which receivers are great bets for NFL futures. NFL future receivers also tend to offer better returns for college production. We can go ahead and get started with the NFL side first!
NFL Wide Receivers of Interest
Similar to running backs, receivers are more about knowing the top names instead of just one starter for each team. With that in mind, I took the players who were of age to be in my model to help provide the dual outlook for both processes here.
It is not surprising to see that the breakdown of the NFL talent trends toward the upper levels of each category. I want to note that my production scores differ from my recruit scores, which include landing spots and recruit service numbers. If we focus on my part with the recruit type and high school production scores, we see the majority of the 51-player sample fall into the top tiers of Iconic and Official recruit types.
My recruit types for receivers are based on production, with the list above showing the five tiers. Iconic players maxed out my production scores in high school, while Official scores were close to perfect. This is also represented by my first big sample of 30 players with 84+ scores on high school production. The promising tier is essentially the minimum I’m willing to risk, as it guarantees at least a “passing” grade on the production part of sixty-one or better. The twelve names that fell below that make up my outliers among the NFL names. I will let you decide how you feel about them from above, but I would make note that only Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison crack the top 25 of the list.
As of this writing, the Star Index scores show the receivers maintaining high results. Since most of these players have verified results during the predraft process, we see their athleticism checks out, with most of them passing the mentioned baseline of 0.7. If we look closely, thirty of them are in the 0.9+ range, too. These are the best of the best, so their results getting added as NFL prospects does give them the leg up when compared to the vast pool of college receivers and high school recruits. However, I do want to note that many were great athletes entering college, so this should not be a surprise to see them climb slightly more with specialized training.
The other crucial detail is the Year 1 Zero results. I know Campus2Canton only applies it to the players in the top 300 of the composite 247 rankings. I decided to apply it to all receivers in my process, as we already know it’s challenging to expect low three stars or worse to be NFL bets, so they need to stand out quickly to gain ground. While we have some examples of outliers sprinkled within the NFL names, most everyone passed the Year 1 Zero Theory.
Fun side note: zero receivers in the list above failed the production, star index, and year 1 zero theory. In just a moment, we will dive into the 87 names I pulled to cover the 2026-2028 classes. We have five such receivers who failed all parts and four freshmen who are waiting to see how year 1 plays out. Out of respect to the hard work by Campus2Canton on their tools, I will refer to the players of thresholds, but will not give away exact numbers for each player. Here is a quick breakdown of what to expect.
The 2026 Class
The 2026 class will have forty names I will break into tiers for us to look over. Starting with the preferred group, let me share the guys who passed all aspects.
It’s not a big surprise to see many of the top names from this class included in this group. Singleton and Wilson, I believe, could surprise many this year, too. Omarion Miller is a player that many adore, so a healthy season for him could be huge here. Evan Stewart and Johntay Cook look like the riskiest bets here because of health and personality, respectively.
Not pictured with this group, but Hudson Clement, Chris Hilton Jr, and Denzel Boston all find themselves here for all aspects, except they were a Year 1 Zero, which should not be a surprise as a walk-on player at West Virginia, hurt at LSU, and buried at Washington.
This next group shows the guys who failed production standards in high school but were athletic enough to pass the 0.7 Star Index requirement, plus Year 1 Zero Theory. I grouped them by production group to see the ranges each was in, which helped us identify areas where they jumped up more. Branch and Stribling are being talked about as the lead targets for their SEC programs in 2025. Jayce Brown has some fans out there; his profile favors some of the past receivers in the NFL already, with that recruit type too, so there is hope. The unknown category offers some intrigue but also a lot of work on several of these names.
Ja’Kobi Lane and Deion Burks also land near here, but they failed their Year 1 Zero Theory tests. Lane is in the promising tier while Burks is in the risky grouping.
Our third group is smaller and easier to discuss. These players passed my high school production marks, but failed the athletic tool. The assortment is based on how year 1 went. Makai Lemon and Cayden Lee avoided being Y1Zs and should carry some potential for the NFL. The group of McAlister, Sowell, and Anderson presents a significantly higher risk, which was identified by this grouping. Trent Walker is an interesting case, as he is the only name without athletic testing, so he fell into this group for his production and lack of Year 1 involvement anyway.
The last picture shows our two groups that failed both the production and star index. We do see the group on the left at least stand out in Year 1. However, the group on the right is not a source of great confidence for many, as they are the older prospects who fall into the rare category of failing everything.
The 2027 Class
2027 offered quite a list with 22 total names, and the top group who passed it all consisted mostly of all the studs. The surprise of this group may be Perry Thompson as the Auburn receiver who made the cut. If he does stay on track, his value could be great. The rest are studs I trust to grow and develop further, except the off-field concerns with Micah Hudson.
Our second picture is the group that failed production but passed the other parts. Cam Coleman is the surprise here, as many expected him in the previous one. That tells me he may not need to jump everyone in the previous picture, or he will be an outlier. Simmons is a fun potential starter at Auburn as well, while Bennett returns as South Carolina’s leading 2024 receiver. Bussey was not playing receiver in high school, so he falls into this group by default, too.
Mike Matthews also passed the athletic measurables, but he only managed the high school production as a “promising” recruit and then failed his Year 1 theory.
Our third group for 2027 was those who passed the production and Year 1 but failed the athletic testing. All three names are around the 50th percentile for the Star Index, so if they continue to produce, we should see combined numbers that can update our process.
Our last group for this class is those who failed both athleticism and high school production. Marsh, Barney, and Williams all managed to pass in Year 1, but Jojo Trader of Miami failed to pass while playing in 12 games. Trader joins as the fifth active player to fail it all.
The 2028 Class
For the incoming freshmen, we have 25 names. Our top group for freshmen managed to be solid in production and on the Star Index. I love seeing the top names here. No one is surprised by them up here. What interests me more is the later round targets of Malik Clark, Andrew Marsh, Ed Small, and maybe TaRon Francis.
The 2028 group is for individuals who failed high school testing but have managed to excel, delivering impressive performances, and meet NFL standards as athletes. The Florida duo is both looking to make an impact in Year 1. Wiley is facing a more veteran-heavy Georgia team, and the same for Bodpegn Miller. Ffrench is the only player here who is uncertain, as he is on a team without any fully established leaders.
This seems to be the bucket I like based on the past two classes with guys like Cayden Lee, Makai Lemon, Drelon Miller, Yannick Smith, and Emmett Mosley. The important factor, though, is picking the guys in this group who can also be involved in Year 1 of college. For that reason, I have gotten some shares of all but Porter and McCutcheon in my C2C leagues.
I mentioned the five receivers who failed all three parts from the 2026 and 2027 classes. We now sit here with four more freshmen who may join them. Lockett is in a crowded Texas room, so he needs to stand out for reps. Derek Meadows is well down the depth chart at Alabama, so he may not play much. Toney is in a battle for a starting spot, so that provides a glimmer, but he still has to earn it. Olugbode is in a complete avoid scenario for me. Kevin Coleman, Marquis Johnson, & Brett Norfleet all could pose a challenge for sufficient work if the team focuses on the run game and Pribula’s legs. If they swap quarterbacks to Sam Horn or Matt Zollers, we are working with an unproven guy in the SEC slate.
