The 2023 NFL Season is here, and with it comes some lineup questions. Which moves should you make to maximize your points? Let this weekly post be your guide as I offer one start and one sit suggestion at QB, RB, WR, and TE. These suggestions are based on my rankings against consensus each week. And because we want to measure our success, check back each week for a recap on how I did.
For the purposes of this project, a start is a player I think will finish Top 12 at QB or TE and Top 24 at RB or WR. A sit is a player I suspect will finish outside those metrics. Before we move forward, let’s look at last week’s picks. All finishes courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Week 11 Starts
QB: Josh Allen QB5 Hit. Allen looked great in his first game in the new offensive regime.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB3, David Montgomery, RB13, Hit. The Lions’ backs were good again.
WR: Garrett Wilson, WR103 Miss. I won’t miss Zach Wilson.
TE: Jake Ferguson, TE21 Miss. The Cowboys offense wasn’t needed in Carolina.
Start Record: 2-2
Week 11 Sits
QB: Kyler Murray, QB6 Miss. Kyler was better than expected.
RB: Kareem Hunt, RB33 Hit. Hunt isn’t getting enough volume to be Top 24.
WR: Marquise Brown, WR75 Hit. Brown isn’t thriving in Arizona.
TE: Logan Thomas, TE14 Hit. Too many options in Washington to get volume.
Sit Record: 3-1
Start: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
About: I get it, Mark Andrews is out. Losing his best receiver and one of the best tight ends in the league isn’t great for Jackson. But the Ravens get a Chargers defense that’s been under-whelming, and Jackson has shown he’s more than just one receiver. Even with Andrews out last week, on Thursday night, Jackson finished as QB4. He’ll be just fine Sunday night.
Sit: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
About: Geno is going to play Thursday night. That’s the good news. The bad news is he’s facing the San Francisco 49ers while missing his starting running back. Geno is also just QB19 on the season. He’s a QB2 option but he’s not Top 12. This week, I’m not even confident he’s Top 20.
Start: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
About: Williams is tracking to return this week, and that’s some good news for the Los Angeles Rams. Without him, the team has stumbled some and lacked consistency in the backfield. Williams was averaging 18.5 points per game. The Rams are facing the Cardinals, and Cooper Kupp is dinged up. It’s a great time to welcome Williams back and to welcome him back to your lineup.
Sit: A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
About: Yes, Dillon is the starter with Aaron Jones out. No, I don’t want to play him. He’s averaging a paltry 7.7 points per game, and that’s with a number of games that Jones didn’t play earlier this season. The Packers’ run game is weak, and the Lions’ defense is stout. I’m not trusting Dillon as a Top 24 play.
Start: Tank Dell, Houston Texans
About: Sunday is a huge game for the Texans, who host the Jacksonville Jaguars. C.J. Stroud and the Texans beat the Jaguars earlier this season, and a win Sunday would give them the season sweep. Stroud’s top target of late has been Dell, who is WR16 on the season. He’s on a heater, and I don’t think that stops this week at home. I like Tank Dell this week.
Sit: Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
About: Last week, it was Logan Thomas; this week it’s McLaurin. I like the talent, but it’s not a great matchup, and the Commanders have too many options in the passing game. McLaurin is the team’s best receiver, and he’s WR23, but that’s owing to the Commanders having played an extra game against most other options. He’s averaging just 12 points per game. I don’t trust him as a Top 24 option on Sunday.
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
About: Kincaid just continues to take off for the Bills, especially of late. He’s TE8 on the season, and he’s been hot the past few weeks as one of the most stable options for Josh Allen. I love Kincaid as a start at tight end.
Sit: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
About: Conklin has come on some of late, and you might be tempted to slot him in. But that connection this year, as it was last year, was with Zach Wilson. He’s not the starter on Friday, and I don’t expect Conklin to put up Top 12 numbers. He’s back to being a sit for me.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.