The 2023 NFL Season is here, and with it comes some lineup questions. Which moves should you make to maximize your points? Let this weekly post be your guide as I offer one start and one sit suggestion at QB, RB, WR, and TE. These suggestions are based on my rankings against consensus each week. And because we want to measure our success, check back each week for a recap on how I did.
For the purposes of this project, a start is a player I think will finish Top 12 at QB or TE and Top 24 at RB or WR. A sit is a player I suspect will finish outside those metrics. Before we move forward, let’s look at last week’s picks. All finishes courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Week 12 Starts
QB: Lamar Jackson, QB14 Miss. It was a weak offensive showing for the Ravens.
RB: Kyren Williams, RB1 Hit. Williams was on fire in his return.
WR: Tank Dell, WR22 Hit. Dell’s injury hurt, but he was still Top 24.
TE: Dalton Kincaid, TE12 Hit. Just made the cut!
Start Record: 3-1
Week 12 Sits
QB: Geno Smith, QB29 Hit. Smith isn’t a good bet in 2022.
RB: A.J. Dillon, RB25 Hit. Dillon was better than expected, but still outside the range.
WR: Terry McLaurin, WR46 Hit. McLaurin isn’t getting enough volume of late.
TE: Tyler Conklin, TE21 Hit. Not enough offense for the Jets.
Sit Record: 4-0
Now, on to the Week 13 picks.
Quarterbacks
Start: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
About: Things haven’t been perfect for the Chargers this season—far from it. The team sits at 4-7 and is on the verge of getting pushed out of the playoff picture. But this week the Chargers get a Patriots team that’s perhaps playing even worse. Given the quarterback landscape and the desperation for the Chargers, it shouldn’t be a surprise I’m in on Herbert. Plus, Herbert is QB5 on the season, so I think he’ll be just fine.
Sit: Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
About: Howell has actually been a bright spot this season for fantasy. He’s currently sitting as QB4 on the season. So, what gives? Well, I don’t like the matchup with Miami, which has a way of making QBs lower their ceiling. I could be off base, but I’m not betting on Howell in this matchup.
Running Backs
Start: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
About: Just when you thought it was time to let your Moss shares wither on the bench, Jonathan Taylor gets injured again. He’s having thumb surgery and is expected to miss some time. That’s bad news for Taylor and bad news for the Colts, but great if you roster Moss. He was involved as a rusher and receiver when filling in and was good enough to post RB1 numbers. I’m firing him back up this week. It’s a tougher matchup, but he should still get enough volume to finish Top 24.
Sit: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
About: Jones is tracking to play again, which is good. But I’ve mentioned in other pieces that Jones hasn’t looked the same this season. Jones has two big games, including Week 1, that have buoyed his average. It sits at 10.9 points per game, which isn’t impressive. When you consider that outside of those two games, he hasn’t hit 10 points in any of the games he’s played, it’s even less impressive. I’m not counting on him as a Top 24 option this week.
Wide Receivers
Start: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
About: Smith has been on a tear of late. He’s WR18 on the season, which is good enough to consider on its own, but he’s had 14 or more points in each of his last four games, including two games over 20 points. With Dallas Goedert out, Smith has been picking up the slack. That will be the case again this week as the Eagles face a stiff test in the 49ers. I’m firing him up.
Sit: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
About: While Mike Evans is lighting it up for the Buccaneers, Godwin has been just a steady performer in the flex range. He’s WR38 on the season, averaging 11.2 points per game. He’s also had seven of his 11 starts with fewer points than that, including five games below 10 points. The Buccaneers’ offense isn’t producing enough to buoy three or four fantasy starters. Evans is a start, while Godwin has been consistently outside of the Top 24 range. He’s a sit for me.
Tight Ends
Start: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
About: Freiermuth was a huge part of the action for a re-vamped Steelers offense in Week 12. He caught nine passes for 120 yards, making him the top TE on the board. This week, he gets an Arizona defense that allowed Tyler Higbee to score two touchdowns in Week 12. Let’s just say I’m bullish on Freiermuth again in Week 13.
Sit: Jonnu Smith, Atlanta Falcons
About: Last week, it was Kyle Pitts; this week, it’s Smith. He had some hot games early in the season, but he’s cooled as of late. He’s just TE17 on the season and hasn’t hit double-digits since Week 6. You have better options.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.
