October is here already as the NFL Season is flying by. We’re starting to see who these teams are and who will make regular contributions to our fantasy lineups. While we’re all blissfully rejoicing the return of the NFL, with it comes the specter of lineup decisions. Who should start? Who should sit? Let this weekly post be your guide as I go on a journey with you these next 18 weeks.
The criteria is simple: I pick one sit and one start from each position (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). This is based on my rankings for each week, which you can find in full at www.campus2canton.com. The standard is Top 12 for quarterbacks and tight ends, Top 24 for wide receivers and running backs. Each week I’ll begin with a review of how I did the previous week because accountability is a part of this process.
Let’s review how I did in Week 3.
Week 3 Starts
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, QB25 Miss. Tua was solid and the Dolphins won, but the touchdowns went to the running back.
RB: Leonard Fournette, RB24 Hit. I barely got this one. I don’t feel great about it.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR36 Miss. St. Brown got banged up and missed a chunk of the game, spoiling what looked to be another good performance.
TE: Dallas Goedert, TE9 Hit. Goedert and the Eagles are soaring.
Start Record: 2-2
Week 3 Sits
QB: Russell Wilson, QB29 Hit. The Broncos won but the offense is a work in progress.
RB: Chase Edmonds, RB12 Miss. Seven touches for 27 yards. He got two touchdowns so it’s a miss, but I feel like the process is sound. I still don’t trust Chase Edmonds.
WR: Hunter Renfrow, DNP Hit. Renfrow missed and may be on the verge of being usurped by Mack Hollins.
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE47 Hit. Albert O. isn’t a big part of the pass offense.
Sit Record: 3-1
Now, on to the Week 4 picks!
Start: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
About: Lawrence struggled as a rookie but his second year has been much different. Lawrence got off to a slow start in Week 1, completing just over 57 percent of his passes for only one touchdown and one interception. Since then, he’s been on fire. His completion percentage hasn’t dipped below 72 percent in the last two weeks as he’s delivered five touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s now QB10 on the season and rolls into a fierce matchup with the Eagles in Week 4. Sure, the Eagles have a solid secondary, but Lawrence and the Jaguars are on fire, having just destroyed the Chargers 38-10 on Sunday. I’m firing him up.
Sit: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
About: The Bears are 2-1, but that has little to do with Fields. The pass offense has been brutal for the Bears. Fields has attempted 45 passes and completed just 23 for 297 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions in three games. That’s an average of 15 attempts per game, yielding an average of less than 100 passing yards. As a runner, Fields has 95 yards and a touchdown, but that’s still left him as just QB30 on the season. The Bears travel to battle the 2-1 Giants, which doesn’t figure to be a barnburner. Fields isn’t a reliable start in Superflex at the moment, let alone a candidate to finish in the Top 12.
Start: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
About: The Falcons might not be a good team in 2022 but they will be a fun team. A big part of that fun is Patterson, who continues to impress in the Falcons’ backfield. Through three weeks, Patterson is RB6, and he shows few signs of slowing down. The Falcons have a Week 4 date with the Browns. While Cleveland has been solid this season, they’ve allowed some teams, including the Jets, to move the ball on them. That is a solid sign for Patterson, who seems to be an ideal fit in the Falcons’ system and could be good trade bait for a team not likely competing in 2022.
Sit: Darrell Henderson, Jr., Los Angeles Rams
About: A lot has been made of Henderson’s backfield mate, Cam Akers. He was a non-factor in Week 1 but has steadily stepped up his production in the weeks since. Akers, meanwhile, has had a quiet season. He’s shown flashes over his years but often the challenge has been health. He’s healthy in 2022, so far, but his production has just been OK. Henderson had 47 or fewer rushing yards in each game and hasn’t had a reception since Week 1. He also has just one touchdown on the season. In Week 3, he had his lowest production, carrying four times for 17 yards. He’s just RB41 on the season. His volume and production aren’t enough to make him a reliable play in your lineup.
Start: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
About: We’ve learned after four weeks that Jeff Okudah is for real. The Lions’ cornerback has handled each assignment and shut them down, including Justin Jefferson in Week 3. Why does that matter here? Well, Smith saw four targets and was held without a reception in Week 1 while facing the Lions. In the two weeks since, he’s seen 23 targets, catching 15 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown. He’s also WR18 on the season. The Eagles face a hot Jaguars team in Week 4, meaning the offenses will be going full throttle. That means Smith will be in the thick of it again, so I’m putting him in my lineup and not giving it a second thought.
Sit: Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
About: I want Robinson to have a great season. I thought signing with the Rams was a great fit. I was excited to see him paired with Matthew Stafford. But the reality is that he hasn’t been a major factor. Robinson had a decent game in Week 2, but for the season he’s seen just 12 targets, catching seven passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. He’s WR69 on the season. In fact, Robinson has just 1.1 more fantasy points this season than WR70, his teammate Ben Skowronek. Maybe he’ll turn it around, but for now, Robinson is on my bench.
Start: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
About: Remember what I said about the Falcons’ offense being fun? Pitts is a big part of that. A lot was made of his relative lack of involvement in Week 2. His coach seemed to indicate getting the ball to Pitts wasn’t a priority. And yet, in Week 3 we saw him get eight targets, catching five passes for 87 yards. It’s the second time in three games he’s seen at least seven targets, and that’s no accident. With Patterson and rookie wide receiver Drake London going well, that will make it even harder for defenses to focus on Pitts alone. Pitts is just TE15 on the season so far, but I think that will change. And his touchdowns will come. I’m firing him up!
Sit: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
About: I like Knox. You probably like Knox. I was excited about his 2021 performance and excited to see what he’d do in 2022. Unfortunately, though the Bills’ offense is red hot, Knox hasn’t gotten enough volume and production to be a rock-solid option. He’s TE24 on the season, with less than 75 yards receiving total in three games. Knox could get a touchdown and make your week. That certainly happened with Chase Edmonds in Week 3. But I’m looking at opportunities, and so far it isn’t there. That’s not the production I’m taking a bet on if I want to get a win in Week 4.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.