The 2023 NFL Season is here, and with it comes some lineup questions. Which moves should you make to maximize your points? Let this weekly post be your guide as I offer one start and one sit suggestion at QB, RB, WR, and TE. These suggestions are based on my rankings against consensus each week. And because we want to measure our success, check back each week for a recap on how I did.
For the purposes of this project, a start is a player I think will finish Top 12 at QB or TE and Top 24 at RB or WR. A sit is a player I suspect will finish outside those metrics. Before we move forward, let’s look at last week’s picks. All finishes courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
Week 6 Starts
QB: C.J. Stroud, QB12 Hit. Stroud stayed hot and led the Texans to a win.
RB: Breece Hall, RB4 Hit. Hall didn’t kill in on the ground, but he made up for it with receptions.
WR: Puka Nacua, WR56 Miss. Nacua got targets but didn’t end up getting enough receptions.
TE: Logan Thomas, TE50 Miss. It wasn’t a great day for Thomas.
Start Record: 2-2
Week 6 Sits
QB: Deshaun Watson, DNP Hit. Watson ended up missing the game.
RB: Miles Sanders, DNP Hit. Sanders, too, ended up missing Week 6.
WR: Michael Thomas, WR39 Hit. Thomas has a stable floor, but his ceiling keeps him in the WR4 range.
TE: David Njoku, TE20 Hit. Njoku isn’t getting enough volume to be a reliable TE1.
Sit Record: 4-0
And now, on to the Week 7 Picks!
Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
About: With six teams on a bye, every QB counts in Superflex. But you might be tempted to downgrade Tua as the Dolphins are facing the Eagles. I’m not. He’s QB3 on the season, averaging 21 points per game. With Tyreek Hill in his arsenal, he’ll be just fine this week. I’m firing him up.
Sit: Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts
About: Minshew is the man for the Colts now that Anthony Richardson is out for the season. We’ve seen him do some good things in the past, but he struggled in Week 6. He put up just 12.6 points, most of it coming in garbage time. This week, he gets a stout Browns defense. I’m staying away.
Start: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
About: Mostert is having a great season. Heading into Week 7, he is RB2 on the season, averaging more than 23 points per game. The Eagles are a good team, but we’ve seen running backs do well against them. Just last week, Breece Hall finished as RB4. Mostert has been a threat to score on the ground and in the air; I’m starting him this week.
Sit: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
About: He’s RB24 on the season, but that’s largely thanks to a big 21-point output in Week 2 and a spat of injuries at the position. Week-to-week, White isn’t a reliable start. In five games played this season, he has three games with less than 10 points. Even in a compressed week, that’s not reliable enough to feel confident starting him.
Start: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
About: Flowers has been quietly on a roll this season. He’s WR22 on the season and has only one game with less than 10 points. He’s developed into the top target at wide receiver for the Ravens and only appears to be getting stronger. In a tough game against a good Lions team, the Ravens will need to throw. When they do, aside from tight end Mark Andrews, Flowers is the one you want.
Sit: Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills
About: The Bills’ offense is in a bit of a funk. Will that be improved as they head to New England? Maybe. But Davis is the ultimate boom-bust option. Yes, he’s WR23 on the season, but it comes with highs and lows. He has two games with more than 20 points and two games with five or fewer points. I’m not trusting him as a consistent WR2 at this point.
Start: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
About: Pitts started slowly, but he’s come on of late. Jonnu Smith is still getting targets and production, but Pitts is getting his, too. He is TE12 on the season and has had 14 or more points in the past two weeks. He’s a talented pass-catcher, and in a crucial game for the Falcons, I think that Desmond Ridder will find him.
Sit: Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
About: Ertz started the season hot, getting targets and receptions to keep him a start-worthy tight end in PPR. But he’s TE15 on the season, with only two games at 10 points or more. He’s averaging less than eight points per game, and we’ve seen Trey McBride with an uptick in usage of late. Ertz is a middling TE2 option.
Matthew Fox is a die-hard NFL fan and Broncos’ homer. He’s a member of the FSWA. You can find more from him on Twitter @knighthawk7734 or as co-host of the Fantasy Football Roundtable Podcast, a part of the Campus2Canton Network.