Running backs, even in the year 2026, still get the benefit of the doubt so often for not doing anything in their first year of college. Yet those same names often come back to bite us. My large-sample study from two years ago showed insane differences in just getting drafted. The odds of even being drafted were 2-3 times higher for the high-end guys and 4-10 times better for the three-star backs. Overall, the data showed the odds of being drafted were just 3%, with most exceptions being high-end recruits, coming off injury, or rare upstarts who came from nothing.
Just a reminder for anyone new: my Year 1 zero metrics are as follows across their first season of college eligibility, regardless of circumstances: 20 carries, 100 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 30 receiving yards, 2 TDs (rushing and receiving). I will add one more illustration to show the 22 names who went through the top three rounds with Year 1 zero scores of 0-3, with a few additional names later, such as Hubbard, Allgeier, Kyren, and Chris Carson. Not great odds when I have 253 names worth even tracking out, with many no-names never sniffing the list.
Thankfully, my work has some saved data from last year, so let us revisit last year’s top 60 backs, since that will give us our hopeful top 5 backs per team for a regular 12-team league. This should give a solid understanding of how to structure rosters, since that will be the essential building blocks for most teams.
2025 Season Ranks
To start, let me share the list of guys who went 4-for-5 in Year 1 with zero results.
We saw a lot of solid players who worked out for teams in production, and many carry value into the 2026 season. It is no surprise that we had 26 of the top 60 names fall into this top tier, because we had already seen proven production in Year 1, when they were the new guys on campus.
The freshmen in the top 60 can even show us this metric for 2026, in retrospect. The ones who hit (Kromah, Bo Jackson, Davidson, Davis, Berry) all stuck around while the rest fell for a rough Year 1.
If we go back and check the 3s and 2s, we see some success with Haynes destroying the game before his injury, Marshall stepping up after him, Lacy taking advantage of an unproven room, and then a lot of bad. But it gets worse in a moment.
Waymond Jordan fits the mold of coming up out of nowhere from the JUCO ranks, but everything else besides the shocking Jadarian Price result left a lot to be desired if betting on this list last May.
2026 Season
Prioritizing the upcoming season with backs from the 5s, 4s, and freshmen ranks could pay off massively if the previous year is any indication. This group, as of today, sits at 39 of the top 60 names we should get to know, and they are fairly common names to know among the community.
If people are more dependent on loading up their roster with players from the lower sections of the Year 1 zero metric, good luck, as history has not been kind to a roster full of these guys year over year. I still like a few in them with Haynes, Lacy, Waymond, and Bishop, but I know to supplement my NFL pipeline with more bets on the higher-end guys, too.
Good luck constructing your rosters!
