One player with whom I’ve had some really friendly debates this offseason is Taylen Green. The guy was great at Boise State, but not utilized to his fullest potential. Then he transfers to Arkansas and has a Jekyll and Hyde season. Today, I wanted to explore why people should consider drafting him over at Underdog and why others might be steering clear.
To start, let’s knock out some of the simple stuff when it comes to Taylen Green. What does he have around him that could help/hurt his cause in 2025…
Offensive Line Returning Production
From an offensive line perspective, you should be encouraged by what we see on paper. Three players with over 650+ snaps played in this offense this year return, while they bring in two transfers that played 500+ snaps last season. Now, how these players improve and gel together is anyone’s guess, but that experience is a good start. Green lost 221 yards due to sacks in 2024, so improving on the 32 sacks he took will be beneficial for those drafting him.
Supporting Cast
Green’s supporting cast is a bunch of random receivers who have proven very little at the P4 level and two running backs weighing 228 lbs. (Mike Washington) and 238 lbs. (Braylen Russell). You can argue that with two big running backs beside Green, his touchdown equity on the ground could be limited. I’ll file this away, sure, maybe? In these scenarios, we’ve seen quarterbacks get vultured, but we’ve also seen them play hero ball and benefit from no other stars around them.
The Upside
Without a doubt, Green has some of the best upside in CFF. The guy can throw just enough and has the legs to put up 100+ rushing yards and multiple touchdowns. When examining his performance against others drafted high in Underdog drafts, he rates quite well. Looking at 35+ fantasy point games last season, he had just as many or more than all of the returning quarterbacks being drafted around him.
Taylen Green: 3 (including a 34.94FP game)
Cade Klubnik: 2
LaNorris Sellers: 3
Avery Johnson: 1
Garrett Nussmeier: 2
Josh Hoover: 0
Sam Leavitt: 0
Kevin Jennings: 1
Brendan Sorsby: 2
Diego Pavia: 0
Carson Beck: 0
The issue with Green is that he struggles to perform against quality opponents, often resembling Tate Martell. Against the SEC (and including a big performance against Mississippi State), Green ran for 2.29 YPC and one touchdown on 11.75 attempts per game. Take out the Mississippi State game where he ran for 79 yards and a touchdown on eight attempts, and those “in conference” numbers turn into 1.58 YPC and zero touchdowns on 12.3 attempts per game.
Looking at passing split stats for SEC matchups, we see more of the same:
vs. SEC (including Mississippi State): 1,786 yards, 8 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 7.8YPA
vs. SEC (removing Mississippi State): 1,472 yards, 3 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 7.4YPA
Mississippi State is again on the schedule, but unfortunately for Green, none of the other SEC bottom feeders are. So, looking at Green’s non-conference opponents and Mississippi State, Weeks 1, 2, 4, and 10 are the big upside weeks we feel like are locked on. How did other quarterbacks perform? Are there other 35+ FP weeks out there making Green’s production special?
35+ FP Games in Week 1: 8
35+ FP Games in Week 2: 2
35+ FP Games in Week 4: 3
35+ FP Games in Week 10: 2
This bodes well for those wanting to draft Green at ADP or better. He’s shown to have more highs than those drafted around him, and last year’s data shows that there were only 15 total 35+ FP performances during those four weeks. It’s worth noting that Green put up 26.7 and 28 FP in early non-conference matchups, so nothing is automatic. We would be happy with those numbers, though! For comparison sake, how did others perform when looking at 30+ FP for the four weeks in question:
30+ FP Games in Week 1: 16
30+ FP Games in Week 2: 9
30+ FP Games in Week 4: 10
30+ FP Games in Week 10: 3
Not surprisingly, we see more quarterbacks hit the threshold. What’s interesting is Week 10 and the potential value Green brings with that matchup against Mississippi State. He was one of three players to hit the 30+ FP mark. If you stretch that even further to 25+ FP, then you see the number of quarterbacks to hit that mark move to 10—still an advantage thanks to conference matchups.
In Conclusion
To draft Taylen Green and feel great about it, I think you have to be banking on improvement and more consistency in weeks outside of the four already mentioned. While his highs are high, his lows are quite low. He had six games under 16 fantasy points in 2024. In total, he only had five usable weeks. This would tie him for 24th with most startable weeks (tied with 10 others).
A startable week is how many times the quarterback finishes in the top 24. Without improvement, it’s a matter of whether you feel the 5-10 fantasy points you could gain those four spike weeks (20-40 overall fantasy points) while likely giving you no contributions for potentially any other week is worth a 4th-5th round pick.
Now, that isn’t to say there isn’t a place for Green even if he replicates his 2024 season. Five usable weeks isn’t bad by any means, and if done strategically, he could hold real value. I noted his Week 10 matchup against Mississippi State, so pairing him up with other Week 10 byes, such as Demond Williams, Josh Hoover, Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, Dante Moore, and Marcel Reed, could be a smart move for those wanting to take multiple quarterbacks early. Additionally, Josh Hoover has a Week 2 bye. Pairing Green with Hoover could allow you to have better coverage of those weeks because you then have three other potential quarterback slots (not to mention nearly all of your RB/WRs likely available) to cover the superflex spot.
Looking at it from a playoff perspective, drafting Green means you probably want to be careful about taking quarterbacks with week 12 and 13 byes. Does it make sense to draft Austin Simmons, Kevin Jennings, Behren Morton, Jackson Arnold, Fernando Mendoza, or Rocco Becht when it’s likely Green is going to struggle in those same weeks?
Drafting Taylen Green at ADP isn’t a bad idea. I’m just in the camp that if you’re going to do it, then it would be helpful to do it strategically to account for just in case Taylen Green is the same guy we saw in 2024.
