The final slate of the season is here with Miami facing off against Indiana in the National Championship. What a season it has been! We have a really interesting matchup here, with the spread larger than a touchdown and the potential for a blowout. Hey, if Indiana can stomp Oregon, then why shouldn’t we consider that for our lineups in this matchup? Let’s dive into the showdown slate and cook up something nice!
Miami vs Indiana (-8.5)
Miami Team Total: 20
Indiana Team Total: 28.5
Quarterbacks
Indiana opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and we’ve seen that number creep up to 8.5. This makes for quite the interesting angle here for DFS. In their two playoff games, Indiana has gotten up big and then really run the ball to kill the clock. This lines up with how they played in the second half of the season, with Fernando Mendoza ($11,600) throwing for more than 225 passing yards just once in their final eight games. He adds value on the ground, is incredibly efficient through the air, and has eight touchdowns in two playoff games. As long as you think Indiana wins this game, there’s a near 0% chance of him not being in the winning lineup.
For Miami, things are a little murkier. Carson Beck ($10,600) lit it up in November but has come back to Earth a bit since then. He struggled mightily against Texas A&M and Ohio State, but then he did have a nice game against Ole Miss. The Rebels are not at the level defensively that Indiana is, though. It’s hard not to play both quarterbacks in a showdown slate, but you might be better off with the cost savings by looking elsewhere. If you’re playing Beck, you think Miami has a real shot at winning this game, or they will have garbage-time success as Oregon did in the semi-finals. On the season, Indiana has allowed just 9 passing touchdowns and has intercepted 18 passes.
Running Backs
At running back for Miami, Mark Fletcher Jr. ($9,400) leads the way with his 58 attempts and two receptions in the playoffs. He’s generated over 16 fantasy points in all three contests yet has not found the end zone on the ground. Chamar Brown ($6,200) has also found a significant role after not playing in the Texas A&M game. Unfortunately, I’m not sure the game script is going to lead Miami to giving their RB2 14 attempts on the ground. Sustaining long drives and staying within a touchdown or being in the lead is the only way Brown can hit value.
The real question here is, do you pick Fletcher or Beck from a Miami standpoint? Indiana’s run defense has somehow been better than its pass defense, holding every team but two to less than 100 yards on the ground this season. They’ve given up just six rushing touchdowns in 15 games. Considering the Miami receivers are so cheap, I’ll take Beck and stack him with 1-2 of his targets.
For Indiana, they’re going to split Roman Hemby ($7,600) and Kaelon Black ($7,400) pretty evenly in terms of attempts. Both are fairly non-existent in the passing game. They’re going to live between 13 and 16 attempts, so you’re really hoping for a big run and/or a touchdown or two. Black would be my preferred option because I do think he has more juice than Hemby. And it doesn’t seem like they consider one of them to be the red zone back.
Wide Receivers
At receiver for the Hoosiers, it’s hard not to love Elijah Sarratt ($8,800) after his two-touchdown performance against Oregon. He’s their top target and has four more targets in the playoffs (12 in total) than the next closest receiver, Omar Cooper Jr. ($8,400). Cooper does have a touchdown in every game but one in his last seven contests, and that was the game he got hurt early against Ohio State. In his last six full games played, he’s caught three passes four times and has a high of 86 receiving yards, typically living around 40 yards. If you want to look at the role in the offense, Cooper does play in the slot, which is where Cayden Lee for Ole Miss played with his 5/67/0 stat line. This was good for second-best on Ole Miss in that game.
Charlie Becker ($5,000 )got dinged up but came back in against Oregon, so there is something to monitor here. There’s no reason to think he can’t play or is limited. If he’s limited, though, EJ Williams Jr. ($3,400) benefits the most. Becker has been great in the second half of the season, which has led Williams to take a backseat. Becker may be one of the most owned players on the slate due to his affordability and recent production.
Riley Nowakowski ($3,000)is an interesting play, but it is hard to justify with Becker and Williams so cheap. What exactly is his upside? His best game of the season is a 4/65/1 performance against Wisconsin in mid-November.
At receiver for Miami, there are plenty of options to consider. Of course, Malachi Toney ($9,800) is their top guy, but he surprisingly does not lead the team in targets during the playoffs. That honor goes to Keelan Marion ($3,600). Marion has 23 targets in three playoff games compared to Toney’s 21. A lot of Toney’s targets have come around the line of scrimmage, with his aDOT being 2.5, 0.2, and 9 during the playoffs. Marion, on the other hand, has ADOTs of 8, 12, and 14.5 during that stretch. Toney is a great option, but Marion’s price and upside due to the types of passes he’s seeing is quite intriguing.
CJ Daniels ($4,000) is also a cheap option that has seen good usage during the playoffs. He is averaging 5.33 targets per game with an ADOT of north of 10 in all three contests. The only problem here is that Beck has struggled so much that those targets have turned into just 104 yards.
